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51.
Is Prediction of Future Landslides Possible with a GIS? 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
Fabbri Andrea G. Chung Chang-Jo F. Cendrero Antonio Remondo Juan 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):487-503
This contribution explores a strategy for landslide hazard zonation inwhich layers of spatial data are used to represent typical settings inwhich given dynamic types of landslides are likely to occur. Theconcepts of assessment and prediction are defined to focus on therepresentation of future hazardous events and in particular on themyths that often provide obstacles in the application of quantitativemethods. The prediction rate curves for different applications describethe support provided by the different data layers in experiments inwhich the typical setting of hazardous events is approximated bystatistically integrating the spatial information. 相似文献
52.
Rockfall susceptibility has been analysed in mountain cliffs of the Cantabrian Range, North Spain. The main aim of this analysis has been to build a predictive model of rockfall activity from a low number of environmental and geological variables. The rockfall activity has been quantified in a GIS. The cartographic information used shows the spatial distribution of all the recent talus screes as well as their associated source areas in the rock-slopes. The area relation At/Ar (recent talus scree polygon/source basins) in the rock slopes has been used as the rockfall activity indicator. This relation has been validated in 50 pilot rock-slopes and compared with the relation number of recent rock fragments/source basin, obtained from field work. The environmental factors causing rockfall depend on the rock slope situation, and these are: altitude and sun radiation on the rock cliff. The geological factors considered are: lithology, relative position of the main discontinuities with respect to the topographic surface and two morphologic parameters: the roughness and slope gradient. A logistic regression analysis has been applied to a population of 442 limestone and quartzite rock cliffs. The dependent variable is the rockfall activity indicator, which allows the definition of two classes of rock cliff units: low and high activity. The independent variables are altitude, sun radiation (equinox radiation, summer solstice radiation, winter solstice radiation), slope roughness, slope gradient,anisotropy and lithology. Results suggest that it is possible tobuild a valid cartographic predictive model for rockfall activity in mountain rock cliffs from a limited number of easily obtainable variables. The method is especially applicable in massive rock slopes or in regions with uniform rock mass characteristics. 相似文献
53.
Use of Geomorphological Information in Indirect Landslide Susceptibility Assessment 总被引:31,自引:6,他引:31
The objective of this paper is to evaluate the importance of geomorphological expert knowledge in the generation of landslide susceptibility maps, using GIS supported indirect bivariate statistical analysis. For a test area in the Alpago region in Italy a dataset was generated at scale 1:5,000. Detailed geomorphological maps were generated, with legends at different levels of complexity. Other factor maps, that were considered relevant for the assessment of landslide susceptibility, were also collected, such as lithology, structural geology, surficial materials, slope classes, land use, distance from streams, roads and houses. The weights of evidence method was used to generate statistically derived weights for all classes of the factor maps. On the basis of these weights, the most relevant maps were selected for the combination into landslide susceptibility maps. Six different combinations of factor maps were evaluated, with varying geomorphological input. Success rates were used to classify the weight maps into three qualitative landslide susceptibility classes. The resulting six maps were compared with a direct susceptibility map, which was made by direct assignment of susceptibility classes in the field. The analysis indicated that the use of detailed geomorphological information in the bivariate statistical analysis raised the overall accuracy of the final susceptibility map considerably. However, even with the use of a detailed geomorphological factor map, the difference with the separately prepared direct susceptibility map is still significant, due to the generalisations that are inherent to the bivariate statistical analysis technique. 相似文献
54.
55.
Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain 总被引:9,自引:3,他引:9
Remondo Juan González Alberto De Terán José Ramón Díaz Cendrero Antonio Fabbri Andrea Chung Chang-Jo F. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):437-449
A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps. 相似文献
56.
徐进军 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》1997,(4)
综合分析和比较了自回归模型和回归模型的特点,提出了采用线性综合模型来预报崩滑体变形的思想,以弥补自回归模型或回归模型预报的不足。实测资料的处理结果表明,综合线性模型具有特别的适用性。 相似文献
57.
斜坡岩体由小变形到大变形乃至滑坡的发生,实质上是由组成斜坡的各子系统协同作用的结果.将协同学引入斜坡的稳定性预测评价中,并提出了一种新的斜坡失稳时间预测模型──协同预测模型.经实例检验,该模型预测精度较高,可用于滑坡的短期或临滑预报. 相似文献
58.
59.
滑坡定量预测的非线性理论方法 总被引:19,自引:0,他引:19
滑坡时空预测是当前滑坡研究中的难题,特别是滑坡时间预测工作,其进展缓慢。本文基于非线性科学理论,分析了滑坡活动的分形特征及时间分形预测方法,研究了滑坡空间预测的人工神经网络特征,系统介绍了滑坡时间预测的非线性动力学理论。在此基础上,讨论了滑坡定量预测的发展趋势。 相似文献
60.
Landslides in Jordan have caused numerous problems during the past 40 years. The most critical slides occurred during the period of 1991/1992 after exceptional heavy rain and snowfall. Many disastrous landslides occurred along the newly reconstructed international highway that links Amman, Jerash and Irbid. Causes for these slides are attributed mainly to the lack of a comprehensive overview and geotechnical understanding of the problem.Many investigators have been interested in this problem of finding an adequate solution to such landslides in Jordan either by using theoretical analysis or by using computer software to solve the slope instability problems. A detailed study was conducted at the Jordan University of Science and Technology to investigate the potential causes and measures for this problem. Seven landslides along the mountainous section of this international highway were reviewed. One of these landslides was thoroughly investigated using a three-dimensional computer program called JUST-SLOPE introduced at the Jordan University of Science and Technology campus. Results of this study indicate that landslides at this site could have been predicted had this technique been applied prior to the occurrence of this slide. 相似文献