A case for a reassessment of the risks of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean

There is an urgent need for the development and implementation of modern statistical methodology for long-term risk assessment of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean. Notwithstanding the inevitable scarcity of data relating to extreme events, recent results and approaches call into question standard methods of estimation of the risks of environmental catastrophes that are currently adopted. Estimation of extreme hazards is often based on the Gumbel model and on crude methods for estimating predictive probabilities. In both cases the result is often a remarkable underestimation of the predicted probabilities for disasters of large magnitude. Simplifications do not stop here: assumptions of data homogeneity and temporal independence are usually made regardless of potential inconsistencies with genuine process behaviour and the fact that results may be sensitive to such mis-specifications. These issues are of particular relevance for the Caribbean, given its exposure to diverse meteorological climate conditions.In this article we present an examination of predictive methodologies for the assessment of long-term risks of hydrological hazards, with particular focus on applications to rainfall and flooding, motivated by three data sets from the Caribbean region. Consideration is given to classical and Bayesian methods of inference for annual maxima and daily peaks-over-threshold models. We also examine situations where data non-homogeneity is compromised by an unknown seasonal structure, and the situation in which the process under examination has a physical upper limit. We highlight the fact that standard Gumbel analyses routinely assign near-zero probability to subsequently observed disasters, and that for San Juan, Puerto Rico, standard 100-year predicted rainfall estimates may be routinely underestimated by a factor of two.     

Gradient theory of nucleation in polar fluids

Gradient theory (GT), a form of density functional theory (DFT), was applied to water, methanol, and ethanol using the cubic perturbed hard body (CPHB) equation of state (EOS). Compared to the standard form of classical nucleation theory (CNT), the GT results for water showed an improved temperature dependence, but the supersaturation dependence was slightly poorer. GT and several forms of CNT were also found to be in good agreement with a single high T molecular dynamics rate for TIP4P water. The rates predicted by GT for methanol and ethanol were improved by several orders of magnitude compared to CNT, but no improvement in the predicted temperature dependence of the rates was found.     

GasBench-IRMS在碳酸盐岩δ^13C和δ^18O在线连续分析中的应用

采用GasBench-IRMS气体质谱分析技术，实现了碳酸盐岩中碳氧同位素的在线连续分析。优化了色谱柱温、离子源参数等工作条件，排除了空气中N2O的干扰。结果表明，色谱柱柱温为40℃、65℃时，方法线性范围较宽，结果准确可靠。方法用于碳酸盐岩国家一级标准物质中δ^13C和δ^18O的测定，结果与标准值一致。     

鞍山某基坑支护工程事故分析

论述了鞍山某基坑支护工程设计参数的选取与加固措施,分析了出现事故及险情的原因,总结了鞍山地区基坑支护设计与施工的经验和教训。     

水对不同岩石声波速度影响的研究

通过分析不同成因类型岩石的声波速度,提出了水对不同岩石声波速度的影响,从岩石孔隙及隐微裂隙的发育程度及岩石的水理性质解释了在水的作用下岩石声波变化规律,利用这些规律可以初步判断岩石的隐微裂隙发育程度及水理性质。     

高密度电阻率法在风化岩地基勘察中的应用

由于风化岩场地具有风化不均匀之特点,《岩土工程勘察规范》(GB 50021—2001)对这类场地的岩土工程勘察的布孔间距具有严格规定,使得这类场地的勘察工作量往往很大。分析了高密度电阻率法在这类场地中使用的可行性和必要性,结合阿尔及利亚某炼油厂岩土工程勘察的实例,剖析了高密度电阻率法对大面积风化岩地基勘察方案设计的优化。     

西华岭隧道岩爆判据与预报研究

岩爆是地下工程掘进过程中所遇到的一种动力地质灾害,极大地威胁着施工人员和设备的安全。论述了岩爆的定义、特征及作用机理。结合国内外相关岩爆判据判定和理论分析,通过有限元数值模拟,对西华岭隧道开挖中是否会产生岩爆等施工地质灾害做出了最终的判定。     

青海南部金沙江缝合带二叠纪硅质岩地球化学特征及沉积环境

青海省南部扎河地区金沙江缝合带中出露的通天河蛇绿混杂岩由不同时代、不同岩性的地层断片组成.对其中的二叠纪硅质岩进行地球化学研究后发现,该地区的硅质岩SiO2含量在71.56%～88.24%之间,Al/(Al Fe Mn)平均值为0.64,MnO/TiO2平均值为0.74,ΣREE平均为138.51×10-6,稀土元素配分曲线呈平坦型,δCe为0.97～1.49,平均为1.14,无明显异常;(La/Yb)N平均值为1.85,(La/Ce)N平均值为1.08,与已知大地构造背景的硅质岩地球化学特征对比,表明其形成环境为陆间洋盆环境.因此,金沙江带不能作为古特提斯域的主缝合带.     

黔中降起的油气勘探壁垒——兼论海相碳酸盐岩烃源岩

黔中隆起在地质构造上属于扬子地块的滇黔隆褶带．南华纪晚期初现雏形，震旦纪—奥陶纪为水下隆起，燕山运动使其整体抬高，喜马拉雅运动时急剧隆升，构造地貌长期相对隆起。地表油苗油样分析结果显示，在红外吸收谱图中缩合芳烃结构及含氧基团吸收明显，有机质热成熟度高，且遭受了氧化蚀变：震旦系以上地层大量暴露，地表水溶蚀下渗深度在黔西南地区可达3000-4000m；作为长期存在的古隆起，经历了多次抬升，直至挽近仍处于严重剥蚀阶段。地腹可能存在酸性岩浆热源使有机质过度热演化、保存条件不佳以及缺少勘探目的层，是黔中隆起油气勘探的三大壁垒。兼谈了碳酸盐岩烃源岩问题．认为形成大油气田的烃源岩主要是泥质岩系，“碳酸盐岩烃源岩”只是从属性的．分布在泥质烃源岩系的边缘或局部范围。     

珠江口盆地沉降史定量模拟和分析

运用Petrosys盆地模拟系统，定量和动态地模拟了珠江口盆地三个主要坳陷的沉降过程，论述了沉降速率的变化与生储盖发育之间的关联，认为珠江口盆地构造沉降史具有幕式、多阶段变化的特征。盆地第一幕和第二幕沉降是盆地发育的主要时期，奠定了盆地的构造格架，形成了盆地主要的沉积地层和油气资源。第三幕沉降为盆地的改造和完成阶段，是盆地区域盖层发育的主要时期。