Progress and Prospect of Statistics and Assessment of Large-scale Natural Disaster Damage and Losses

In June 2014, the "Statistics System for the Damage and Loss of Large-scale Natural Disasters" (SSDLLND) was issued by the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Office of National Disaster Reduction Committee, which marked that the statistics and assessment of China's catastrophic natural disaster damage and losses formally entered a new stage of institutionalization. On the basis of analyzing the five major international disaster damage and loss assessment systems, including HAZUS-MH, ECLAC, DaLA, EMA-DLA and PDNA, the differences between the “SSDLLND” of China and five major international systems were compared from the statistics and assessment contents and indicators. Combined with the statistics and assessment practices of China’s large-scale disaster damage and losses and the characteristics of international systems in recent years, the future development of the SSDLLND were proposed in three aspects: Enriching and improving the framework of damage and loss statistics content, stepwise improvement of disaster impact assessment methods (such as the ecological capital loss assessment, tourism industry loss assessment due to the disasters, etc.), and improving indicators and parameters of loss statistics. The study has an important practical significance for improving the statistics and assessment system of the damage and loss of major natural disasters and better serving the post-disaster recovery and reconstruction decision-making.     

A novel approach to leveraging social media for rapid flood mapping: a case study of the 2015 South Carolina floods

Rapid flood mapping is critical for local authorities and emergency responders to identify areas in need of immediate attention. However, traditional data collection practices such as remote sensing and field surveying often fail to offer timely information during or right after a flooding event. Social media such as Twitter have emerged as a new data source for disaster management and flood mapping. Using the 2015 South Carolina floods as the study case, this paper introduces a novel approach to mapping the flood in near real time by leveraging Twitter data in geospatial processes. Specifically, in this study, we first analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of flood-related tweets using quantitative methods to better understand how Twitter activity is related to flood phenomena. Then, a kernel-based flood mapping model was developed to map the flooding possibility for the study area based on the water height points derived from tweets and stream gauges. The identified patterns of Twitter activity were used to assign the weights of flood model parameters. The feasibility and accuracy of the model was evaluated by comparing the model output with official inundation maps. Results show that the proposed approach could provide a consistent and comparable estimation of the flood situation in near real time, which is essential for improving the situational awareness during a flooding event to support decision-making.     

山西数字地震台网单台测定近震震级偏差研究

选用2003年1月～2005年3月山西数字地震台网报告中可交的地震,选取了单台样本数接近和超出100的17个子台数据,从震级偏差频次分布、仪器、量规函数、台基诸因素,对单台震级的影响上作了定量统计和分析,得出仪器影响存在一定的震级负偏差,但不大;量规函数、台基是引起山西台网单台震级偏差的主要原因.本文给出了量规函数和台基校正值,校正之后,单台震级偏差94%(即17个台中除镇川1个)以上震级平均偏差在±0.2之内.这对于提高山西数字地震台网测定近震震级,提高台网速报质量具有极其重要的实际意义.     

一种两步抗差估计的设计及其解算

抗差估计的关键是选择适当的权函数和合理的调制因子,针对这两个重要问题,在研究当前调制因子取值方法的基础之上,提出了可动性调制因子这一新概念,并基于可动性调制因子、IGG方案权函数,设计了两步抗差估计。两步抗差估计解决了抗差估计中传统的调制因子、方差因子、初值三者取值时存在的一系列问题,尤其当三者取值不能协调配制时出现的秩亏问题,从而使抗差估计方法更具有实际意义和广泛意义。     

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GPS网平差中的稳健估计

GPS网平差利用三维基线向量为观测值,与常规的粗差探测不同,根据RECO法基本原理,以GPS网为例,说明RECO法在GPS网平差中粗差探测中的优越性,得出一些有益的结论。     

AutoCAD二次开发在绘制管线竣工图中的应用

介绍了通过AutoCAD二次开发绘制管线竣工图的方法,阐述如何实现数据文件导入CAD,长度统计,信息要素导入等功能.     

高质量增长背景下海洋经济发展的时空协调模式研究——基于环渤海地区地级市的实证

海洋经济协调发展是科学评价区域海洋经济发展质量的重要依据。遵循城市与海洋经济协同的发展理念,构建环渤海城市海洋经济发展时空协调度评价体系,运用复杂系统时空协调度评价模型,计算并分析2008~2016年环渤海城市海洋经济发展时空协调度,通过SaTScan软件分析其时空聚类区。研究结果显示：①海洋经济各系统发展水平中,社会系统呈大幅度分散上升趋势,经济系统、生态系统与综合系统呈小幅度集中与分散交替上升趋势;协调等级时序变化稳定型城市主要是大连、潍坊、青岛、烟台、威海。②协调度时空聚类区既有空间分异又有重叠交集,社会系统、综合系统、经济系统聚类区依次相互覆盖,生态系统与其它三系统既有重叠区也有独立区。③聚类区内部,社会系统最为稳定,综合系统、经济系统次之,生态系统最为薄弱。     

Detecting arbitrarily shaped clusters in origin-destination flows using ant colony optimization

An origin-destination (OD) flow can be defined as the movement of objects between two locations. These movements must be determined for a range of purposes, and strong interactions can be visually represented via clustering of OD flows. Identification of such clusters may be useful in urban planning, traffic planning and logistics management research. However, few methods can identify arbitrarily shaped flow clusters. Here, we present a spatial scan statistical approach based on ant colony optimization (ACO) for detecting arbitrarily shaped clusters of OD flows (AntScan_flow). In this study, an OD flow cluster is defined as a regional pair with significant log likelihood ratio (LLR), and the ACO is employed to detect the clusters with maximum LLRs in the search space. Simulation experiments based on AntScan_flow and SaTScan_flow show that AntScan_flow yields better performance based on accuracy but requires a large computational demand. Finally, a case study of the morning commuting flows of Beijing residents was conducted. The AntScan_flow results show that the regions associated with moderate- and long-distance commuting OD flow clusters are highly consistent with subway lines and highways in the city. Additionally, the regions of short-distance commuting OD flow clusters are more likely to exhibit ‘residential-area to work-area’ patterns.     

Improving the prediction of extreme FPSO hawser tension,using another highly correlated hawser tension with a longer time record

The floating production storage and offloading unit (FPSO) is an offshore vessel that produces and stores crude oil prior to tanker transport. Robust prediction of extreme hawser tensions during the FPSO offloading operation is an important safety concern. Excessive hawser tension may occur during certain sea conditions, posing an operational risk. In this paper, the finite element method (FEM) software ANSYS AQWA has been employed to analyze vessel response due to hydrodynamic wave loads, acting on a specific FPSO vessel under actual sea conditions.In some practical situations, it would be useful to improve the accuracy of some statistical predictions based on a certain stochastic random process, given another synchronous highly correlated stochastic process that has been measured for a longer time, than the process of interest. In this paper, the issue of improving extreme value prediction has been addressed. In other words, an efficient transfer of information is necessary between two synchronous, highly correlated stochastic processes. Two such highly correlated FPSO hawser tension processes were simulated in order to test the efficiency of the proposed technique.