Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow / Détection de tendance dans des séries de débit fluvial: 1. Débit maximum annuel

Abstract

Results of a study on change detection in hydrological time series of annual maximum river flow are presented. Out of more than a thousand long time series made available by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in Koblenz, Germany, a worldwide data set consisting of 195 long series of daily mean flow records was selected, based on such criteria as length of series, currency, lack of gaps and missing values, adequate geographical distribution, and priority to smaller catchments. The analysis of annual maximum flows does not support the hypothesis of ubiquitous growth of high flows. Although 27 cases of strong, statistically significant increase were identified by the Mann-Kendall test, there are 31 decreases as well, and most (137) time series do not show any significant changes (at the 10% level). Caution is advised in interpreting these results as flooding is a complex phenomenon, caused by a number of factors that can be associated with local, regional, and hemispheric climatic processes. Moreover, river flow has strong natural variability and exhibits long-term persistence which can confound the results of trend and significance tests.     

Bifurcation modelling in a meandering gravel–sand bed river

The Rhine bifurcation at Pannerden forms the major distribution point for water supply in the Netherlands, distributing not only water and sediment but also flooding risks and navigability. Its morphological stability has been a concern for centuries. We present experiences from more than two decades of numerical morphological modelling of this bifurcation with a gravel–sand bed and a meandering planform. Successive computations have shown the importance of upstream approach conditions, the necessity to include physical mechanisms for grain sorting and alluvial roughness, and the need to assume a thicker active layer of the river bed than is suggested by laboratory flume experiments using a constant discharge. The active layer must be thicker in the model to account for river bed variations due to higher‐frequency discharge variations that are filtered out in morphological modelling. We discuss limitations in calibration and verification, but argue that, notwithstanding these limitations, 2D and 3D morphological models are valuable tools, not only for pragmatic applications to engineering problems, but also for revealing the limitations of established knowledge and understanding of the relevant physical processes. The application of numerical models to the Pannerden bifurcation appeared to reveal shortcomings in established model formulations that do not pose particular problems in other cases. This application is therefore particularly useful for setting the agenda for further research. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of geomorphological bank evolution of the alluvial threshold rivers based on entropy concept parameters

The complex stream bank profiles in alluvial channels and rivers that are formed after reaching equilibrium has been a popular topic of research for many geomorphologists and river engineers. The entropy theory has recently been successfully applied to this problem. However, the existing methods restrict the further application of the entropy parameter to determine the cross-section slope of the river banks. To solve this limitation, we introduce a novel approach in the extraction of the equation based on the calculation of the entropy parameter (λ) and the transverse slope of the bank profile at threshold channel conditions. The effects of different hydraulic and geometric parameters are evaluated on a variation of the entropy parameter. Sensitivity analysis on the parameters affecting the entropy parameter shows that the most effective parameter on the λ-slope multiplier is the maximum slope of the bank profile and the dimensionless lateral distance of the river banks.     

Watershed delineation using hydrographic features and a DEM in plain river network region

Watershed delineation is a required step when conducting any spatially distributed hydrological modelling. Automated approaches are often proposed to delineate a watershed based on a river network extracted from the digital elevation model (DEM) using the deterministic eight‐neighbour (D8) method. However, a realistic river network cannot be derived from conventional DEM processing methods for a large flat area with a complex network of rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and polders, referred to as a plain river network region (PRNR). In this study, a new approach, which uses both hydrographic features and DEM, has been developed to address the problems of watershed delineation in PRNR. It extracts the river nodes and determines the flow directions of the river network based on a vector‐based hydrographic feature data model. The river network, lakes, reservoirs, and polders are then used to modify the flow directions of grid cells determined by D8 approach. The watershed is eventually delineated into four types of catchments including lakes, reservoirs, polders, and overland catchments based on the flow direction matrix and the location of river nodes. Multiple flow directions of grid cells are represented using a multi‐direction encoding method, and multiple outflows of catchments are also reflected in the topology of catchments. The proposed approach is applied to the western Taihu watershed in China. Comparisons between the results obtained from the D8 approach, the ‘stream burning’ approach, and those from the proposed approach clearly demonstrate an improvement of the new approach over the conventional approaches. This approach will benefit the development of distributed hydrological models in PRNR for the consideration of different types and multiple inlets and outlets of catchments. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A simple gravity wave drag parametrization for use in medium‐range weather forecast models

Abstract

A simple gravity wave drag parametriiation over mountainous terrain is tested for its ability to reduce the systematic errors of medium‐range weather forecasts. Following Boer et al. (1984), this parametrization is a function of the low‐level wind speed and stability, the local Froude number, and the variance of the subgrid‐scale orographie features.

A comparison study of ten 7‐day forecasts obtained with envelope orography, wave drag or standard orography, shows that wave drag is as effective as envelope orography in reducing the systematic errors. A further comparison where the combined effects of the wave drag and that of a complementary enhanced orography (that is one that includes only the subgrid‐scale elements not treated separately by wave drag) are taken into account shows this latter approach to be the most promising in reducing orographically‐related systematic errors.     

Reversal of monthly East Asian winter air temperature in 2020/21 and its predictability

在全球变暖的背景下,近年来东亚冬季气温存在复杂的季节内变化.本文研究了2020/21年东亚冬季气温的月际转折及可预测性.结果 表明,2020/21年东亚冬季气温前冬(2020年12月-2021年1月中旬)偏冷,后冬(2021年1月中旬-2月)偏暖.西伯利亚高压强度在前冬和后冬也出现转折变化.在前冬,由于2020年9月巴...     

SAR图像河流分割的加权指数区域能量模型

传统主动轮廓模型很难实现精确的SAR图像河流分割。针对这一问题,本文提出了一种加权指数区域能量主动轮廓模型,以精确地提取SAR图像中的河流。该模型在Chan-Vese(CV)模型能量泛函中引入了指数区域能量,能更好地衡量分割图像和原始图像的差异程度,提高模型的分割准确性。此外,利用目标区域和背景区域内像素灰度的最大绝对差取代模型中常值区域能量权重,自适应地调节目标区域和背景区域的能量比重,加速曲线运动到目标区域的边缘,获得更高的分割效率。针对实际河流SAR图像进行了分割试验,结果表明:与传统主动轮廓模型相比,本文提出的模型能更快速、精确地分割SAR图像中的河流,在分割结果和分割效率两方面具有优势。     

黄河上游洪灾及流域面雨量预报

通过统计分析黄河上游流域特征、洪灾特征和强降水特征及成因等 ,首先建立了强降水预报智能模型。并在此预报结论的基础上 ,利用三角形面积计算法和流域分区原理在MICAPS系统上进行二次开发 ,完成了黄河上游流域及各区段面雨量预报业务系统的建立 ,使用效果良好。     

北冰洋海冰和海水变异对海洋生态系统的潜在影响

最近30年来,北冰洋海冰和海水发生了急剧变化:海冰覆盖面积减少、冰层变薄、水温升高、淡水输入增加、污染加剧,正威胁着现有与海冰关系密切的生态系统。预期随着变化的持续,与海冰相关的食物链将在部分海域消失并被较低纬度的海洋物种所取代、总初级生产力有望增加并为人类带来更多的渔获量、而北极熊和海象等以海冰作为栖息和捕食场所的大型哺乳动物的生存前景堪忧。今后人类将更为重视对北冰洋生态环境变化规律的认识并加以运用、关注北冰洋特有物种的命运并加以力所能及的保护、评估北冰洋生态系统的变化对人类社会经济的影响以期及早采取应对措施。数据积累是目前制约北极研究的最大障碍,但随着 SEARCH 等大型国际研究计划的实施,对北冰洋生态系统的监测和研究将更为系统和全面。     

渭河下游河道调整过程中的复杂响应现象

应用系统复杂响应的原理研究三门峡水库上游渭河河道调整过程,表明上游河道河床形态对基面上升所作出的响应是复杂的,弯曲系数的变化为先减小而后增大,宽深比的变化是先增大后减小,比降由先减小而后增大,最后均趋于稳定.