浅谈我国的地质灾害风险评估

针对我国地质灾害风险评估研究现状,着重讨论了对我国地质灾害风险评估的理解,提出了中国地质灾害风险评估为灾害体易发性、承灾体的易损性、这两者耦合关系评估的结构组成及结构公式,并根据其研究对象、内容、目的等方面情况提出了地质灾害风险评估的完整概念。     

Proposal of a National Mitigation Strategy Against Earthquakes in Turkey

While laboratory and analytical studies can provide valuable information about earthquake hazard mitigation, the most effective educator is the impact of a full-scale earthquake on a full-scale city. The recent earthquakes in Turkey showed that the governmental as well as individual attitudes towards earthquakes did not represent proportionate responses to the risk levels concerned. Turkey had weaknesses in preparing, planning, mitigating and responding to disasters in spite of the known seismic vulnerability of the country. Many steps have been taken after 1999 earthquakes in Turkey, however, the preparations largely concentrate on the response and recovery phases and a fundamental step to reform the current disaster management system and steps to rehabilitate the vulnerable building stock has not been undertaken until today. This would involve changing the present laws and regulations and de-centralising the disaster management system. The aim of this paper is to propose a national mitigation strategy for Turkey for a time-frame of 10 years. The model proposed is a very comprehensive model for earthquake risk reduction in Turkey and within this context, the legislative and technical aspects of mitigation will be discussed in detail. Strategies for mitigating and retrofitting the existing building stock will also be proposed.     

从土地利用规划入手提高地质灾害的防治水平——兼议地质灾害风险区划的急迫性与重要性

国际减灾战略已从场地尺度工程性“硬”措施转向区域土地规划限制等“软”措施,即通过土地利用规划手段来限制土地开发行为,这是防范地质灾害最有效的手段。从土地利用规划和土地审批的法律地位、地质灾害填图与区划的公益性基础工作和实施地质灾害风险带土地开发限制管理等方面介绍了国际经验,并提出中国开展土地利用规划预防地质灾害的具体建议。     

基于危险度区划的县级区域降雨引发滑坡的风险预警方法——以四川省米易县降雨滑坡为例

降雨滑坡预警在世界上开展广泛,但对小区域的降雨滑坡风险进行预警尚不多见。以通用的风险定义为基础,首先对目标区域——四川省米易县的地质灾害进行调查,以典型滑坡进行反演,获得灾害的本底因素,按贡献率权重叠加法进行危险度分区;通过对承灾体的调查确定承灾对象,并将各承灾对象按密度由行政界限向1km×1km的网格单元转化后叠加形成易损度分区。二者相乘完成风险分区。对研究区域近5年逐日降雨数据与172条地质灾害记录进行分析,按前期日降雨量模型得到降雨阈值,根据滑坡空间概率和降雨引发滑坡的时间概率叠加的结果,得到研究区域的降雨滑坡概率,对照风险分区,完成风险预警。     

Are invasive species most successful in habitats of low native species richness across European brackish water seas?

European brackish water seas (Baltic Sea, Black Sea and Sea of Azov, Caspian Sea) are subject to intense invasion of non-indigenous species (NIS). In these seas, salinity is the most important range limiting factor and native species seem to reach a minimum species richness at intermediate salinities. This trend, revealed by Remane in 1934 and later on confirmed by many other scientists, was compared to the salinity range of already established NIS in the European brackish water seas. It turned out that most NIS are well adapted to the salinities holding lowest native species richness, already in their native area, and that NIS richness maximum in brackish water seas occurs in the salinity intervals of native species richness minimum. A predictable pattern in the salinity range of NIS can be used as a tool in initial risk assessment of future invasions in brackish water seas, especially when mapping highly potential donor and recipient areas. A product of empty niches, suitable environmental conditions, and availability of proper vectors might be the most effective predictor for the invasibility of brackish water areas.     

洋山深水港区海域秋、冬季沉积物中重金属来源分析及生态风险评价(英文)

通过测定洋山深水港区海域2010~2013年6个航次秋、冬季沉积物中重金属含量,分析其时空差异,结果表明该海域沉积物重金属总体含量较低,空间分布较为均匀,Hg、Zn、Pb、Cd含量秋季明显高于冬季,As、Cu含量的季节性波动较小,用因子分析法研究该海域重金属来源,发现陆源工业、船舶航运排污以及有机质降解是研究海域Pb、Cd、Zn的主要来源;农业污染、码头货物装卸残留及建筑垃圾支配着Cu、As、Hg的来源。SQG-Q生态风险评价表明研究海域沉积物中重金属均存在中、低度的生态风险,秋季的生态风险高于冬季,Hg和Cu是主要生态风险因子;地累积指数法评价结果显示研究海域基本不受Hg、As、Zn、Pb的污染;Cd、Cu以轻度污染为主,部分站位属于偏中度污染,6种重金属污染程度依次为:CdCuPbZnHgAs。因子综合得分评价表明,重金属污染相对严重的站位依次为5号、4号及3号站位。但总体看来洋山深水港区附近海域沉积物中重金属污染状况属于轻度污染。     

关于海水网箱养殖系统风险评估的基础研究

随着海水网箱养殖业的迅速发展,制约海水网箱养殖发展的种种因素也逐步显露出来(风暴潮等恶劣气候、环境污染、人为的破坏等等),海水网箱养殖在预期获得丰厚利润的同时也面临遭受巨大损失的风险。本文对海水网箱养殖系统风险评估的可操作性进行了基础研究,提出了一套适合海水网箱养殖系统的风险评估方法,并就数据的收集和专家评审表做了一些研究,以此客观的反映系统的安全性和可靠性,使决策者实现对养殖系统生命周期的最佳控制。     

Influence of Surfactants on Degradation of 1‐(2‐Chlorobenzoyl)‐3‐(4‐chlorophenyl) Urea by Nanoscale Zerovalent Iron

Nanoscale zerovalent iron (NZVI) has been proved to be effective in the degradation of environmental pollutants and exhibits advantages in the removal of 1‐(2‐chlorobenzoyl)‐3‐(4‐chlorophenyl) urea (CCU), an analog of diflubenzuron. This present study focused on the influence of surfactants in the degradation procedure with NZVI in order to provide a simple and rapid removal method for CCU. Triton X‐100, Tween 20, Tween 80, sodium dodecyl sulfonate (SDS), and cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) were investigated under anaerobic conditions. The experimental results demonstrated that the degradation rate increased sharply with the presence of SD during the first 15 min, up to 99.97% with addition of 0.01 g L^?1 SDS, whereas the presence of Triton X‐100, Tween 80, and Tween 20 resulted in a slight enhancement of the degradation of CCU. The enhancement strength of them was in the order Tween 20, Triton X‐100, and Tween 80. However, addition of the cationic surfactant CTAB resulted in a significant inhibitive effect. In contrast, the mixed surfactants did not result in the expected performance, and the performance was lower than that using some certain single surfactant among the mixed surfactants.     

Framework for the derivation of analytical fragility curves and life cycle cost analysis for non-seismically designed buildings

The quantification of the devastating effects of earthquakes on buildings can be achieved with the use of earthquake risk assessment. The formulation of strategies to minimise this risk is a complex task which relies on data regarding mainly the hazard, vulnerability and remaining life of the building. In this paper, the case study of Limassol municipality is presented. Initially, the building inventory and categorisation is defined followed by the selection of hazard scenarios and the development of analytical vulnerability curves. In the final part, risk assessment is performed leading to the formulation of retrofitting strategies for long term use.