水口山矿田矿床定位模式及找矿远景区评价

文章从水口山矿田所处大地构造背景及矿田构造岩浆作用分析入手,阐明了矿田内两大成岩成矿系列:Ⅰ与燕山中期中酸性侵入类有关的中温热液接触交代(夕卡岩)型铅锌铜银硫矿床,Ⅱ与燕山晚期英安质次火山-火山岩有关的浅成低温热液铅锌金银矿床.讨论了两者间的时空关系,分析了控矿因素,总结了矿床定位模式,并结合地物化遥资料进行了矿田内找矿远景区的评价.     

库水作用下公路岩质岸坡稳定性影响因素综合评判

以三峡库区公路岩质岸坡为研究对象,通过对库水作用的影响效应分析,建立了岸坡稳定性评价的参数指标评价体系以及相应的分级标准。在此基础上。应用影响因素综合评判方法,对实例岸坡进行了稳定性分级评价．评价结果与实际情况基本相符。     

Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean

We present a preliminary estimation of tsunami hazard associated with the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Makran is one of the two main tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean, which has produced some tsunamis in the past. Northwestern Indian Ocean remains one of the least studied regions in the world in terms of tsunami hazard assessment. Hence, a scenario-based method is employed to provide an estimation of tsunami hazard in this region for the first time. The numerical modeling of tsunami is verified using historical observations of the 1945 Makran tsunami. Then, a number of tsunamis each resulting from a 1945-type earthquake (M _w 8.1) and spaced evenly along the MSZ are simulated. The results indicate that by moving a 1945-type earthquake along the MSZ, the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan will experience the largest waves with heights of between 5 and 7 m, depending on the location of the source. The tsunami will reach a height of about 5 m and 2 m in northern coast of Oman and eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates, respectively.     

Impact assessment using DEA of coastal hazards on social-economy in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asian countries suffer from severe coastal hazards each year. A large number of these countries are incurring consequential costs that impact their national economies. It is crucial, therefore, to analyze the impact of such hazards on their economic development and provide a solid basis for future development strategies. The purpose of this paper is to assess the relationship between the economic development and the losses from coastal disasters, and to identify both the impact of hazards on the development, as well as the function of such development on the resilience to hazards. The data envelopment analysis (DEA) method is employed to build the assessment models. Data from 1995 to 2005 from eight Southeast countries are analyzed using the DEA models. A set of “resilience index” of these countries are concluded from the results. It is found that the economic development does not contribute to the strengthening of national resilience to coastal hazards. Inappropriate development could even impair the resilience. Additionally, the resilience to coastal hazards is impacted by various factors such as the allocation of resources and external assistance. From the analysis, a clear image is gained of the interaction between economic development and coastal hazards, which provides a basis for future development strategies.

Flood risk analyses—how detailed do we need to be?

Applied flood risk analyses, especially in urban areas, very often pose the question how detailed the analysis needs to be in order to give a realistic figure of the expected risk. The methods used in research and practical applications range from very basic approaches with numerous simplifying assumptions up to very sophisticated, data and calculation time demanding applications both on the hazard and on the vulnerability part of the risk. In order to shed some light on the question of required model complexity in flood risk analyses and outputs sufficiently fulfilling the task at hand, a number of combinations of models of different complexity both on the hazard and on the vulnerability side were tested in a case study. The different models can be organized in a model matrix of different complexity levels: On the hazard side, the approaches/models selected were (A) linear interpolation of gauge water levels and intersection with a digital elevation model (DEM), (B) a mixed 1D/2D hydraulic model with simplifying assumptions (LISFLOOD-FP) and (C) a Saint-Venant 2D zero-inertia hyperbolic hydraulic model considering the built environment and infrastructure. On the vulnerability side, the models used for the estimation of direct damage to residential buildings are in order of increasing complexity: (I) meso-scale stage-damage functions applied to CORINE land cover data, (II) the rule-based meso-scale model FLEMOps+ using census data on the municipal building stock and CORINE land cover data and (III) a rule-based micro-scale model applied to a detailed building inventory. Besides the inundation depths, the latter two models consider different building types and qualities as well as the level of private precaution and contamination of the floodwater. The models were applied in a municipality in east Germany, Eilenburg. It suffered extraordinary damage during the flood of August 2002, which was well documented as were the inundation extent and depths. These data provide an almost unique data set for the validation of flood risk analyses. The analysis shows that the combination of the 1D/2D model and the meso-scale damage model FLEMOps+ performed best and provide the best compromise between data requirements, simulation effort, and an acceptable accuracy of the results. The more detailed approaches suffered from complex model set-up, high data requirements, and long computation times.     

极端洪水灾害损失评估方法及应用

极端洪水灾害具有频率低、影响范围大、损失高等特点,一般常遇洪水的灾害损失评估方法难以适用。分析了极端洪水灾害的自然属性与社会属性,认为极端洪水灾害损失具有时空分布的特性,因此借鉴空间信息格网技术,分别形成了极端洪水水文特性格网与社会经济特性格网,并将其叠加得到具有空间拓扑关系和属性信息的基于GIS的极端洪水损失空间信息格网模型,从而有效地反映了极端洪水灾害的时空特性。结合极端洪水损失率数据库,可评估极端洪水灾害损失。利用该方法评估了1998年特大洪水造成哈尔滨市江南主城区的直接经济损失,实证说明该方法可用于极端洪水灾害损失的评估。     

改建铁路青藏线西宁至格尔木段增建第二线工程地质灾害危险性评估

青藏铁路西宁至格尔木段增建第二线工程作为青藏铁路的一部分,线路全长约763．2km,沿线地质构造复杂和地层岩性岩相变化大,线路穿越多个构造单元,地质灾害发育;本文对沿线区域内地质环境条件进行了详细论述,对地质灾害的类型、分布进行了阐述,对工程建设可能引发或加剧和工程建设本身可能遭受地质灾害的危险性进行了预测评估和综合评估,提出了防治地质灾害的措施及建议。     

河口和沿岸海域的富营养化评价模型

河口和沿岸海域富营养化评价模型和方法,已经从以营养盐为基础的第1代评价体系发展到当前的以富营养化症状为基础的第2代多参数富营养化评价模型和方法。重点介绍了2种有代表性的、被广泛应用的河口和沿岸海域富营养化评价方法：综合评价法(OSPAR-COMPP)和河口营养状况评价法(ASSETS),比较和评价了这2种方法的特点、异同和优缺点,并建议尽快建立适合我国河口和沿岸海域特点的富营养化评价模型和方法以及相应的监测和管理体系。     

Visualization and damage assessment for flooded area

A practical method for visualizing flood area and evaluating damage is presented, which consists of two technical approaches: self-programming and adapting commercial GIS platforms. The low-cost and easy-to-use GIS-Based model developed by self-programming can meet current requirements of most local authorities, especially in developing countries. In this model, two cases, non-source flood and source flood, are distinguished and the Seed-spread algorithm suitable for source-flood is discussed; The flood damage is assessed by overlaying the flood area range with thematic maps and other related social and economic data. and all the-matic maps are converted to raster format before overlay analysis. Two measures are taken to improve the operation efficiency of speed seed-spread algorithm. The accuracy of the model mainly depends on the resolution and precision of the DEM data, and the accuracy of registering all raster layers and the quality of attribute data.     

断层地表潜在突发位移的概率评价初探

目前跨活动断层的线状工程的抗断设防仍采用确定性评价方法 ,考虑的是最大位错量 ,与抗御灾害的风险设计的实际要求不相符。文中将断层上最大位错点的位置分布及最大位错点两侧的位错展布 ,与可产生地表突发位移的强震复发模型联合 ,建立了评估活动断层各部位的地表潜在突发位移的概率性评价方法。最后 ,以怀涿盆地北缘正断裂中的沈庄 -长疃段为例 ,对其未来 10 0a潜在突发位移的危险性做出定量评估 ,给出了断层段上各点不同超越概率水平下的潜在位移。这一研究结果 ,可为跨断裂的线型工程进行抗御地表潜在突发位移的风险设计提供参考