山西地震带历史地震序列的统计分析

在工程地震工作中需要知道某地震带或某地区未来100年内的地震活动水平,以便适当选择历史地震的统计时段,从而得到和地震活动水平相适应的不同潜在震源区的各级地震的年平均发生率。 本文利用极值理论、最大熵原理、马尔可夫模型的方法、莫尔纳方法和伯努里模型方法计算了山西地震带未来100年内中强震的年平均发生率、平均重现期大于等于某级地震的个数和发震概率,计算结果表明,山西地震带未来百年内将发生≥6.0级地震3次,发震概率为0.94左右;将发生≥6.5级地震1—2次,发震概率为0.84左右;有可能发生≥7.0级地震,发震概率为0.53左右;发生≥7.5级地震的可能性不大,发震概率为0.32左右;发生≥8.0级地震的可能性很小,发震概率为0.15左右。     

Transport and sedimentation of particles in a fluid flow

A simple two-dimensional random walk model is developed for the motion of a particle in a fluid flow. Some earlier results for the persistent injection of particles into the flow are extended, and the distribution of the maximum number of particles in suspension over the period (0,t) is derived.     

Petrochemical constraints on the models of Cretaceous-Eocene tectonic evolution of the Eastern Pontic chain (Turkey)

Sixteen selected samples from the Upper Cretaceous volcanic belt of the Eastern Pontids have been analysed for major elements, Rb, Sr and Zr. On the basis of the K₂O versus SiO₂ distribution, two groups of rocks have been distinguished, one with calc-alkaline affinity and a second group with shoshonitic character. The calc-alkaline rocks have porphyritic texture with clinopyroxene, plagioclase and orthopyroxene as phenocryst and in the groundmass. The orthopyroxene is lacking in the shoshonites where plagioclase, clinopyroxene and, in the more evolved terms, amphibole and biotite are the main phenocryst minerals. The shoshonitic rocks have higher $\text{K}{}_2\text{O}\text{Na}{}_2\text{O}$ ratio, K₂O, P₂O₅ and Rb, contents with respect to the calc-alkaline samples. The TiO₂ content is invariably low, never exceeding approximately 1%. The occurrence of volcanic rocks ranging in composition from calc-alkaline to shoshonitic in the Upper Cretaceous volcanic belt of the Eastern Pontids suggests that the Upper Cretaceous volcanic cycle reached its mature stage before the onset of the Eocene calc-alkaline volcanism which is believed to be neither genetically nor tectonically related with the Upper Cretaceous volcanism.     

土的可恢复剪胀的一种解释

从土的各向异怀角度对土的可恢复剪胀现象进行了解释。基于各向异性情况下的土体弹性本构关系理论分析，认为土的可恢复剪胀现象可部分归因于土的各向异性引起的弹性剪胀。借助有关土体弹性参数实验结果，研究了应力诱导各迥异性对土体弹性剪胀的影响，结果表明：随土体应力诱导各向异性的增大，土体的弹性剪胀也增大。从土体弹性剪胀角度研究了土的卸荷体缩条件，认为土体卸荷体缩取决于加载应力路径的应力增量比，给出了土体出现卸荷体缩的区域。     

塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地复合沙垄的流场和上覆沙丘组合及动态特征

复合沙垄是最大的沙丘地貌类型之一，表现为简单沙丘类型的垂直叠加和水平连接，在沙垄的高大地形影响下，沙垄不同部位形成不同的风沙环境特征。以塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地/复合沙垄为例，通过野外实地观测研究其流场和上覆沙丘组合特征。研究结果表明，复合沙垄的流场可分为沙垄迎风坡气流加速区、沙垄背风坡气流转向减速区、垄间粗沙平地气流风速风向恢复区和气流风速稳定区。受沙垄流场和地形的控制，沙垄上覆新月形沙丘链，垄间地分有简单新月形沙丘、沙堆、沙片、侵蚀地、简单线形沙丘。上覆沙丘分布特征表现为：垄间地上覆新月形沙丘疏密度较小，沙垄迎风坡和沙垄背风坡上覆新月形沙丘疏密度较大，而且超过1，说明沙垄迎背风坡上覆沙丘有叠置现象。沙垄上覆沙丘高度自沙垄迎风坡底部到顶部增高，背风坡上覆沙丘高度自沙垄顶部到背风坡底部减小，上覆沙丘在自身形态、地形和流场的共同影响下，存在相对运动，表现为分布进一步集中，因此沙垄有增高的趋势。     

西部大开发中的农业结构调整思考

西部地区的农业发展直接影响到我国国民经济是否能够持续快速健康的发展，这是由于我国是农业大国，农业人口大约占全国人口比例的80％，而实现西部地区持续健康发展的关键在于对传统农业产业结构的调整，提高农业增长的结构变动效益，树立大农业观念，延长农业产业链，在联产承包责任制的基础上通过经营权的集中规模种植，达到实现农业结构调整生态化和产业一体化目标。西部地区在大开发战略实施中，如何将自身的发展环境劣势转变为优势，提出了农业结构调整模式的构想。     

一种基于马尔可夫随机场的影像纹理分类方法

针对纹理影像先估计出其马尔可夫随机场参数，后运用多元统计分析中模糊聚类分析的数学方法进行定量分类，从而为解决划分上的不确定性现象找出描述方法，获得客观的分类结果     

Optimal operation model of a single reservoir with drought duration explicitly concerned

In this paper, a new model for a single reservoir operation optimization is proposed. The proposed model can design the optimal operation policy of a reservoir with explicit consideration of drought duration. The authors model this problem by formulating a single-stage loss function as a function of both the reservoir release and drought duration. Thereby the expected loss per period which is calculated based on the above extended single-stage loss function is minimized in infinite time horizon on the basis of Markov decision process (MDP) theory. The reliability indices are estimated as expected loss per period for specified extended loss functions. Finally, the features of the proposed model are illustrated through numerical analysis.     

利用马氏过程模拟和预测土壤侵蚀的动态演变─—以安徽省岳西县为例

本文根据安徽省岳西县１９５８－１９８２－１９９２年三个时期的遥感资料所编制的土壤侵蚀图，用点数转化法定量地分析岳西县上述两个阶段侵蚀演变和浸蚀类型之间的相互转化状况，确定相应的初始状态下（１９５８和１９８２）的转移概率矩阵，应用马尔科夫过程摸拟和预测岳西县土壤侵蚀及其格局的动态演变过程和未来演变趋势。     

川滇强震的回归—马尔可夫链联合预测

本文应用回归—马尔可夫链联合预测地震的方法,结合川、滇强震的特点,对川、滇强震进行了计算,并作了预测验证。结果表明,该方法对川、滇强震的预测效果较好。