黄河内蒙古不同河型段对洪水过程的响应特征

黄河内蒙古河段的河道淤积近年来有所加重,一些人寄望于人造洪峰冲沙来降低河床。本文根据典型年份的最大洪水的流量—水位过程线变化特征,揭示黄河内蒙古不同河型段对这些洪水的响应机制,得出黄河内蒙古河段洪水的流量—水位过程线类型有线形、顺时针环线、逆时针环线3类单一关系和线形+逆时针环线、逆时针环线+线形、"8"字形+线形、嵌套状逆时针环线以及交叉线形5类复合关系。这些关系总体上可以反映洪水过程中河床是侵蚀还是沉积、何时侵蚀何时沉积、以及冲淤是否具有反复性。黄河内蒙古冲积性河段的河道对同一次洪水过程的响应沿程表现出分化现象,其中辫状河段以河床侵蚀下降为特征,弯曲河段以河床明显沉积升高为特征,而顺直河段以少量沉积或冲淤平衡为特征。不同河型段的河道对洪水的响应趋势与洪水动能的沿程减小相适应,洪峰含沙量沿程减小是该趋势的具体体现。人造洪峰冲沙难以逆转上述淤积趋势,对防治洪灾帮助有限。     

A comparative study of the design spectra defined by Eurocode 8, UBC, IBC and Turkish Earthquake Code on R/C sample buildings

Earthquake codes have been revised and updated depending on the improvements in the representation of ground motions, soils and structures. These revisions have been more frequently seen in recent years. One of the key changes in earthquake codes has been performed on the design spectra. In this paper, the design spectra recommended by Turkish Earthquake Code and three other well known codes (Uniform Building Code, Eurocode 8, and International Building Code) are considered for comparison. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the differences caused by the use of different codes in the dynamic analysis and seismic verification of given types of buildings located at code defined different sites. The differences in expressions and some important points for elastic and inelastic spectra defined by the codes are briefly illustrated in tables and figures. Periods, base shears, lateral displacements and interstory drifts for the analyzed buildings located at code defined ground type are comparatively presented.     

陕西省能源消费结构、产业结构演变对碳排放强度的冲击影响分析

基于陕西省1989-2011年能源消费等统计数据,分析能源消费结构、产业结构的演变特征,建立陕西省能源消费结构-产业结构-碳排放强度系统的VAR模型,对该系统的长期和短期动态关系进行实证分析。结果表明:陕西省的发展模式,是能源消费结构长期以高碳能源为主和产业结构长期以高碳产业为主导。能源消费结构与产业结构的变化对陕西省碳排放强度的减小作用初期微弱;从中长期来,两个结构多元化提高的负效应对碳排放强度的增加有长期持久的抑制作用,且能源消费结构演进对碳排放强度的冲击效果始终大于产业结构变化的冲击效果。优化产业结构和调整能源消费结构尤其是提高低碳产业与低碳能源比重是驱动陕西省碳排放强度下降的有效措施。     

基于耦合模型的中国能源生产与消费预测及其环境响应(英文)

The paper presents the prediction of total energy production and consumption in all provinces and autonomous regions as well as determination of the variation of gravity center of the energy production, consumption and total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue of China via the energy and environmental quality data from 1978 to 2009 in China by use of GM(1,1) model and gravity center model, based on which the paper also analyzes the dynamic variation in regional difference in energy production, consumption and environmental quality and their relationship. The results are shown as follows. 1) The gravity center of energy production is gradually moving southwestward and the entire movement track approxi-mates to linear variation, indicating that the difference of energy production between the east and west, south and north is narrowing to a certain extent, with the difference between the east and the west narrowing faster than that between the south and the north. 2) The gravity center of energy consumption is moving southwestward with perceptible fluctuation, of which the gravity center position from 2000 to 2005 was relatively stable, with slight annual position variation, indicating that the growth rates of all provinces and autonomous regions are basically the same. 3) The gravity center of the total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue is characterized by fluctuation in longitude and latitude to a certain degree. But, it shows a southwestward trend on the whole. 4) There are common ground and discrepancy in the variation track of the gravity center of the energy production & consumption of China, and the comparative analysis of the gravity center of them and that of total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue shows that the environmental quality level is closely associated with the energy production and consumption (especially the energy consumption), indicating that the environment cost in economy of energy is higher in China.     

补偿向下延拓方法研究及应用

位场向下延拓是重、磁处理和解释的常用方法,但其不稳定性限制了其在资料处理及反演中的应用.本文基于补偿圆滑滤波思想以及空间域向下延拓迭代法,通过逐次补偿的办法实现位场的稳定向下延拓.同时,在频率域空间给出了该下延方法的频率域响应因子,并讨论了其低通滤波特性,理论模型和实际位场资料试验表明该方法向下延拓稳定性具有较高的延拓精度.将其应用于重力密度界面反演中,改进反演的稳定性,实际莫霍界面反演表明下延因子具备实用性.     

农用地集约利用变化与经济增长的动态计量分析——以新疆拜城县为例

农用地集约利用程度直接关系到区域土地的可持续利用,与区域社会经济发展密切相关,科学量化评价农用地集约利用变化过程及其与经济增长之间的动态关系,对于农业可持续发展有着重要的意义。利用新疆拜城县1978-2010年时间序列数据,通过构建农用地集约利用评价指标体系,在对原始数据进行标准化的基础上,采用熵值法确定各指标权重,利用多因素综合评分法对历年农用地集约利用水平进行测度与分析,然后利用协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解模型考察农用地集约利用指数与农民人均纯收入水平之间的内在联系。研究发现：改革开放以来,拜城县的农用地集约利用水平逐步提高,农用地投入强度、利用程度、产出效率和持续状况对农用地集约利用水平的贡献率呈现出各自的变化特征。农用地集约利用指数是农民人均纯收入水平的格兰杰原因,而农民人均纯收入水平不是农用地集约利用指数的格兰杰原因,脉冲响应和方差分解的结果表明,随着农用地集约利用指数的提高,农民人均纯收入水平将不断加强。     

地球磁场对太阳风的加载响应与地震

地磁预报地震的方法越来越多,本文应用加卸载响应比方法,分析山西地区2009—2016年观测的加卸载响应比与山西地区4.0级地震之间的对应关系,初步给出适用于山西地区震例特征的磁异常判别指标。     

Optimal instrumentation of structures on flexible base for system identification

A criterion previously developed by Heredia-Zavoni and Esteva for selecting optimal sensor locations is used to analyse the optimal instrumentation of structures on soft soils. The stochastic response of a linear structural system on a flexible base is formulated for use of the criterion. The case of MDOF shear systems on flexible base, with uncertain lateral stiffness and subjected to random earthquake ground motions, is studied. The optimal location of accelerometers, the reduction of prior uncertainty on the lateral stiffness, the effects of the base flexibility, the relative influence of translation and rocking of the base, and the influence of recording noise are assessed and discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

流动沙地灌丛内外生境中土壤动物群落结构研究

以中国科学院奈曼沙漠化研究站为依托,调查了小叶锦鸡儿灌丛内外生境中土壤动物群落特征及土壤理化特性,分析了灌丛内外生境中土壤动物群落结构的差异性,并探讨了土壤动物对灌丛覆盖流沙地表产生小生境的响应特征。结果发现,共捕获土壤动物30科,优势类群有大赤螨科、等节跳科和虱啮科,常见类群有球角跳科,中型土壤动物占绝对优势。土壤动物密度、类群数和多样性指数灌丛内显著高于灌丛外（p<0.05）;土壤动物群落均匀度和优势度变化趋势相反,但灌丛内外无显著差异性（p>0.05）。调查季节（夏季）灌丛内外小生境的土壤温度、酸碱度及有机碳含量差异是主要影响因素。流动沙地灌丛下生境中土壤动物分布表现出了明显的聚集现象,土壤动物多样性显著增加,表明小叶锦鸡儿灌丛覆盖流动沙地后能够显著改变土壤动物生存的微生境,从而导致土壤动物群落结构发生了深刻变化。而且,由于对灌丛内外微生境的选择性和适应性差异,动物类群产生了不同的响应模式。     

塔里木河流域土地开发的生态响应研究

60 a来塔里木河流域耕地面积净增100×10⁴ hm²,在流域内部形成众多生态环境安全问题。通过选取水资源生态环境指数、社会生态环境指数和生态环境压力指数,运用ESDA空间分析方法和GWR模型对塔里木河流域35 a间土地开发与生态时空演变特征和空间响应关系进行研究,构建"土地开发-生态风险预警"模型,得出以下结论：1980-2015年克孜勒苏州和喀什地区生态等级正向转移比例较大,有84.86%的比例由较低等级（I）正向转移为低等级（Ⅱ）;和田地区的克里雅河流域,阿克苏北部区域以及塔里木河末端且末县等级退化严重,负向转移比例23.46%。和田、阿克苏、喀什地区每增加1.0×10⁴ hm²未利用地开垦规模,综合生态环境分值下降0.60到0.35,而克孜勒苏州则上升1.3~2.1;上游喀什与中游阿克苏两地区每1.0×10⁴ hm²生态退耕,每年将分别化解32.06×10⁴ t和15.60×10⁴ t化肥污染压力。阿克苏地区与巴音郭楞州土地开发生态风险达到环境资源承载力指数的75%以上,预警程度超过Ⅱ级,而克孜勒苏州土地开发处于生态安全范围。每1.0×10⁴ hm²未利用土地开发,全流域风险指数增长均值为0.003 4,下游巴音郭楞州在增加15×10⁴~20×10⁴ hm²耕地后,生态风险将逼近并超过环境预警界限,上游克孜勒苏州将在15 a之后进入中度警告阶段。