Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessment. A case study from the Ebro Valley evaporite alluvial karst (NE Spain)

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessments in karst areas allow calculation of the potential sinkhole risk and the performance of cost-benefit analyses. These estimations are of practical interest for planning, engineering, and insurance purposes. The sinkhole hazard assessments should include two components: the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (sinkholes/km² year) and the severity of the sinkholes, which mainly refers to the subsidence mechanisms (progressive passive bending or catastrophic collapse) and the size of the sinkholes at the time of formation; a critical engineering design parameter. This requires the compilation of an exhaustive database on recent sinkholes, including information on the: (1) location, (2) chronology (precise date or age range), (3) size, and (4) subsidence mechanisms and rate. This work presents a hazard assessment from an alluvial evaporite karst area (0.81 km²) located in the periphery of the city of Zaragoza (Ebro River valley, NE Spain). Five sinkholes and four locations with features attributable to karstic subsidence where identified in an initial investigation phase providing a preliminary probability of occurrence of 0.14 sinkholes/km² year (11.34% in annual probability). A trenching program conducted in a subsequent investigation phase allowed us to rule out the four probable sinkholes, reducing the probability of occurrence to 0.079 sinkholes/km² year (6.4% in annual probability). The information on the severity indicates that collapse sinkholes 10–15 m in diameter may occur in the area. A detailed study of the deposits and deformational structures exposed by trenching in one of the sinkholes allowed us to infer a modern collapse sinkhole approximately 12 m in diameter and with a vertical throw of 8 m. This collapse structure is superimposed on a subsidence sinkhole around 80 m across that records at least 1.7 m of synsedimentary subsidence. Trenching, in combination with dating techniques, is proposed as a useful methodology to elucidate the origin of depressions with uncertain diagnosis and to gather practical information with predictive utility about particular sinkholes in alluvial karst settings: precise location, subsidence mechanisms and magnitude, and timing and rate of the subsidence episodes.     

Drought and institutional adaptation in the Great Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 1914–1939

Agriculture in the southern Great Plains of Canada has been particularly vulnerable to prolonged episodes of drought. Using climate data and a precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration index, the extent of the region’s exposure to drought is examined. Between 1914 and 1917, the Dry Belt was particularly vulnerable to drought, whereas after 1928, a much larger region known as the Palliser Triangle covering most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was much more exposed to drought. These droughts provoked major institutional adaptation, in particular the establishment of the Special Areas Board by the Government of Alberta, and the creation of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration by the Government of Canada. Both organizations have proved to be relatively permanent public adaptations to the natural hazard of drought in the region. Moreover, these earlier experiences with prolonged drought as well as institution-building may be of value in helping the residents of the Palliser Triangle adapt to predicted climate changes in the future as well as anticipate some of the barriers to effective institutional adaptation.     

Modeling households’ decisions on reconstruction of houses damaged by earthquakes––Japanese case study

In this study, households’ decisions on reconstruction of damaged houses were modeled, using questionnaire data in Japan. Characteristics of households’ decisions were investigated using parameter estimation results. The effects of subsidizing policy were evaluated as follows. First, subsidy for rebuilding may be effective for the households whose houses were heavily damaged. Second, there is a possibility that subsidy accelerated rebuilding of houses by the households having children. Third, subsidy for rebuilding may not be effective for elderly people’s households and households in depopulated areas.     

Numerical modeling of tide-surge interaction along Orissa coast of India

The Orissa coast of India is one of the most vulnerable regions of extreme sea levels associated with severe tropical cyclones. There was extensive loss of life and property due to the October 1999 super cyclone, which devastated large part of the Orissa coast. The shallow nature of the head bay, presence of a large number of deltas formed by major rivers of Orissa such as Mahanadi and Dhamra, and high tidal range are responsible for storm surge flooding in the region. Specifically, rising and falling tidal phases influence the height, duration, and arrival time of peak surge along the coast. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the tide-surge interaction during the 1999 Orissa cyclone by using nonlinear vertically integrated numerical models. The pure tidal solution for the head bay region of the Bay of Bengal provides the initial condition for the fine resolution nested grid Orissa model. However, the feedback from the Orissa model does not affect the head bay model as the study provides a one-way interaction. Numerical experiments are performed to study the tide-surge interaction by considering various relative phases of the tidal waves with the surge-wave produced by 1999 Orissa cyclone. The comparison, although utilizing only the limited estimates of tidal data, appears adequate to assert that the principal features are reproduced correctly.     

Room-temperature equation of state of Li<Subscript>2</Subscript>VOSiO<Subscript>4</Subscript> up to 8.5 GPa

High-pressure single-crystal X-ray diffraction measurements of lattice parameters of the compound Li₂VOSiO₄, which crystallises with a natisite-type structure, has been carried out to a pressure of 8.54(5) GPa at room temperature. Unit-cell volume data were fitted with a second-order Birch-Murnaghan EoS (BM-EoS), simultaneously refining V ₀ and K ₀ using the data weighted by the uncertainties in V. The bulk modulus is K ₀ = 99(1) GPa, with K′ fixed to 4. Refinements of third order equations-of-state yielded values of K′ that did not differ significantly from 4. The compressibility of the unit-cell is strongly anisotropic with the c axis (K ₀(c) = 49.7 ± 0.5 GPa) approximately four times more compressible than the a axis (K ₀(a) = 195 ± 3 GPa).     

渤海湾盆地新生界生油岩系底界面温度分布

依据渤海湾盆地2000余口测温井的地温梯度数据、地层岩性描述、分层数据以及钻井资料,计算了该盆地各生油岩系底界面的温度。统计结果表明:渤海湾盆地沙河街组大部分凹陷区地层底界面温度介于90℃至150℃,目前仍具有大量生油的温度条件,而在隆起或一些凸起地区,该地层组段温度普遍小于90℃,未能达到生油的温度指标。东营组和孔店组地层也仍具有一定的生油温度条件。研究还表明:地层温度与地层界面埋深密切相关,温度随界面埋深的增大而升高,沉积厚度大的凹陷区地层界面温度大于沉积厚度小的凸起区或斜坡地带,说明地层界面埋深是决定地温高低的主要控制因素,而地温梯度对地层界面温度的影响相对较小。     

辽东湾凝析气田超压成因及侧向传递机制初探

位于辽东湾西部低凸起北端的JZ20-2超压凝析气田,离供烃中心较远,压力系数却达到1.56~1.7,这在我国东部裂谷盆地比较少见。经过综合分析,作者认为JZ20-2凝析气田异常高压的形成与其所处的特殊地质背景紧密相关,辽中凹陷沙河街组三段超压凝析油气沿不整合面、砂体输导通道向辽东湾西部低凸起的运移、充注和能量的侧向传递是JZ20-2凝析气田异常高压形成的根本原因,而上覆东营组二段下亚段-东营组三段巨厚的强超压泥岩封盖和辽西3号边界断层侧向遮挡共同构成的优越封闭环境是超压保存的必要条件。本文分析了该气田超压特征及其远距离超压侧向传递的成因机制,不仅有助于揭示辽东湾西部低凸起超压流体运移聚集的规律和成藏作用,而且可能提供了一个超压远距离侧向传递的典型实例。     

Influence of Structural Non-Stationarity of Surface Roughness on Morphological Characterization and Mechanical Deformation of Rock Joints

Summary Structural non-stationarity of surface roughness affects accurate morphological characterization as well as mechanical behaviour of rock joints at the laboratory scale using samples with a size below the stationarity threshold. In this paper, the effect of structural non-stationarity of surface roughness is investigated by studying the scale dependence of surface roughness and mechanical behaviour of rock joints. The results show that the structural non-stationarity mainly affects the accurate characterization of the surface roughness of the fracture samples. It also controls the amount and location of the contact areas during shear tests, which in turn affects the mechanical properties and asperity degradation of the samples. It is concluded that for accurate determination of the morphological and mechanical properties of rock joints at laboratory and field scales, samples with size equal to or larger than the stationarity threshold are required. Author’s address: Nader Fardin, Rock Mechanics Group, Department of Mining Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Tehran, P.O. Box: 11365/4563, Tehran, Iran     

Analysis of the 2003 Varunawat Landslide,Uttarkashi, India using Earth Observation data

Mass movements such as landslides in mountainous terrains are natural degradation processes and one of the most important landscape-building factors. Varunawat Parbat overlooking Uttarkashi town witnessed a series of landslides on 23 September 2003 and the debris slides and rock falls continued for 2 weeks. This landslide complex was triggered due to the incessant rainfall prior to the event, and its occurrence led to the blockage of the pilgrim route to Gangotri (source of the Ganges river) and evacuation of thousands of people to safer places. Though there was no loss of lives due to timely evacuation, heavy losses to the property were reported. High-resolution stereoscopic earth observation data were acquired after the incidence to study the landslide in detail with emphasis on the cause of the landslide and mode of failure. Areas along the road and below the Varunawat foothill region are mapped for landslide risk. It was found that the foothill region of the Varunawat Parbat was highly disturbed by man-made activities and houses are dangerously located below steep slopes. The potential zones for landslides along with the existing active and old landslides are mapped. These areas are critical and their treatment with priority is required in order to minimise further landslide occurrences.     

气候变化对塔里木河来自天山的地表径流影响

塔里木河水资源主要来自天山南坡两条源流,选择西段阿克苏河和中段开都河-孔雀河作为研究区.1956-2003年研究河源山区气温呈持续升温且降水波动增加的趋势,其中1995-2003年升温强劲,升温速率高出48 a期间平均的3倍以上;降水自1986年后持续增加,20世纪90年代较80年代增幅达18%,并显示出河源山区湿岛向塔里木盆地扩展.因高山缺少气象观测,出山径流过程变化可以综合反映中高山带的气候变化.塔里木河来自天山的地表径流在1986-2003年间持续增长,以冰川融水补给为主的库玛拉克河,1994年以来年径流量增加已在前期平均值基础上提升了一个台阶;开都河以降水径流补给为主,1986-2002年出现了观测记录以来的丰水期,并使1986年后博斯腾湖水位快速上升,恢复到1958年记录的最高水位以上.两河年径流变化趋势基本相似,但也显示有西、中段的气候变化局部差异,出现丰枯水期的不一致;然而,在近16 a升温过程中,年径流增长幅度和快慢相近.