A bivariate pareto model for drought

Univariate Pareto distributions have been so widely used in hydrology. It seems however that bivariate or multivariate Pareto distributions have not yet found applications in hydrology, especially with respect to drought. In this note, a drought application is described by assuming a bivariate Pareto model for the joint distribution drought durations and drought severity in the State of Nebraska. Based on this model, exact distributions are derived for the inter arrival time, magnitude and the proportion of droughts. Estimates of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 year return periods are derived for the three variables, drought duration, drought severity and the pairwise combinations: (drought duration, drought severity), (inter arrival time of drought, proportion of drought) and (drought duration, drought magnitude). These return period estimates could have an important role in hydrology, for example, with respect to measures of vegetation water stress for plants in water-controlled ecosystems.     

Change of Indonesian Throughflow outflow in response to East Asian monsoon and ENSO activities since the Last Glacial

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) links upper ocean waters of the west Pacific and Indian Ocean, modulates heat and fresh water budgets between these oceans, and in turn plays an important role in global climate change. The climatic phenomena such as the East Asian monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exert a strong influence on flux, water properties and vertical stratification of the ITF. This work studied sediments of Core SO18462 that was retrieved from the outflow side of the ITF in the Timor Sea in order to investigate response of the ITF to monsoon and ENSO activities since the last glacial. Based on Mg/Ca ratios and oxygen isotopes in shells of planktonic foraminiferal surface and thermocline species, seawater temperatures and salinity of both surface and thermocline waters and vertical thermal gradient of the ITF outflow were reconstructed. Records of Core SO18462 were then compared with those from Core 3cBX that was recovered from the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP). The results displayed that similar surface waters occurred in the Timor Sea and the WPWP during the last glacial. Since ～16 ka, an apparent difference in surface waters between these two regions exists in salinity, indicated by much fresher waters in the Timor Sea than in the WPWP. In contrast, there is little change in difference of sea surface temperatures (SSTs). With regard to thermocline temperature (TT), it increased until ～11.5 ka since the last glacial, and then remained an overall unchanged trend in the WPWP but continuously decreased in the Timor Sea towards the late Holocene. Since ～6 ka, thermocline waters have tended to be close to each other in between the Timor Sea and the WPWP. It is indicated that intensified precipitation due to East Asian monsoon and possible ENSO cold phase significantly freshened surface waters over the Indonesian Seas, impeding the ITF surface flow and in turn having enhanced thermocline flow during the Holocene. Consequently, thermocline water of the ITF outflow was cooling and thermocline was shoaling towards the late Holocene. It is speculated that, in addition to strengthening of East Asian winter monsoon, increasing ENSO events during the late Holocene likely played an important role in influencing thermocline depth of the ITF outflow.     

An empirical formula for friction coefficient of a perforated wall with vertical slits

The friction coefficient in the permeability parameter of a perforated wall has been estimated on the basis of a best fit between measured and predicted values of such hydrodynamic coefficients as reflection and transmission coefficients. In the present study, an empirical formula for the friction coefficient is proposed in terms of known variables, i.e., the porosity and thickness of the perforated wall and the water depth. This enables direct estimation of the friction coefficient without invoking a best fit procedure. To obtain the empirical formula, hydraulic experiments are carried out, the results of which are used along with other researchers' results. The proposed formula is used to predict the reflection and transmission coefficients of various types of structures including a perforated wall. The concurrence between the experimental data and calculated results is good, verifying the appropriateness of the proposed formula. It is also shown that the proposed formula can be used for irregular waves as well.     

华北新构造：印欧碰撞远场效应与太平洋俯冲地幔上涌之间的相互作用

作为大陆内部典型的伸展断陷区和强震活动区,华北地区处于东部太平洋板块俯冲构造和西部印欧大陆碰撞构造的双重大地构造背景之下,其新构造运动相当复杂:西部沿鄂尔多斯地块周缘两个地堑盆地系引张伸展断陷作用、中部太行山块体的局部断陷和整体隆升、东部华北平原区和渤海湾海域区的区域沉降,南缘沿秦岭构造带的左旋走滑拉张活动,东缘沿郯庐断裂带的右旋挤压走滑活动。这些不同类型的断裂构造在晚新生代的阶段性活动,产生了复杂的构造地貌组合特征。综合研究发现,华北晚新生代经历了3期伸展断陷-挤压隆升演化阶段:新近纪晚期(10～2.5 Ma)、早中更新世和晚更新世以来。地壳引张应力方向或NW-SE、或NE-SW向;地块隆升导致湖盆的消亡,挤压应力方向为NE-SW至W-E向。研究认为,华北地区新构造受两个岩石圈构造过程的相互影响:印欧碰撞产生的远程效应和东部岩石圈地幔的上涌。一方面,青藏高原东北缘地块的持续推挤及其构造应力向东的传递导致鄂尔多斯地块反时针旋转和秦岭山地的向东挤出逃逸,这个挤出构造动力学统治了华北地区晚新生代的引张伸展、斜张走滑和挤压变形。尤其是,新近纪晚期强烈的NW-SE向地壳伸展变形与青藏东缘挤出造山作用同步(10～9 Ma至4.2 Ma);上新世末期(约2.5 Ma)、晚更新世早期(约200～70 ka)和晚更新世晚期—全新世(约20 ka以来)3次构造挤压事件与青藏高原东缘构造事件基本对应。另一方面,岩石圈地幔上涌主导了华北东部平原区的区域地壳沉降,同时伴随着早、中更新世的5期幔源火山活动。这两个岩石圈构造作用力此消彼长,深刻统治着华北地区新构造与现今活动构造以及地震构造。     

航空重力测量数学模型及其测量精度分析

基于数学和分析力学角度分别推导了航空矢量重力测量的数学模型,得到了一致的模型公式;给出了矢量模型的3个分量形式,其中垂直方向的分量就是标量重力测量的数学模型;简要介绍了我国研制成功的航空标量重力测量系统CHAGS的数据处理的过程,分析了标量重力测量中测线交叉点和重复测线的重力异常的精度;根据实测数据计算的结果表明:测线交叉点重力异常不符值的标准差约为5×10-5ms-2左右,重复测线的内符合精度优于5×10-5ms-2,达到了预期的要求。     

广西某铅锌矿区水文地质及地下水重金属污染途径分析

文章在对广西某铅锌矿矿区水文地质条件分析的基础上,采用连通试验对地下水动态特征及其影响因素进行分析评价。实验结果表明,矿山区域地下水流经地下巷道携带大量重金属离子由废旧矿洞口排出地表,地表水流经地表废旧矿渣堆场携带大量污染物和矿洞水汇成溪沟,然后以地表径流方式污染长屯的土壤和水系,最终由长屯南伏流入口汇入洞零水库。尾矿库区域地下水通过地下岩溶管道和溶蚀裂隙向长屯洼地径流,经长屯南伏流入口,汇入洞零水库。     

The anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility in biotite, muscovite and chlorite single crystals

The anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) of single crystals of biotite, muscovite and chlorite has been measured in order to provide accurate values of the magnetic anisotropy properties for these common rock-forming minerals. The low-field AMS and the high-field paramagnetic susceptibility are defined. For the high-field values, it is necessary to combine the paramagnetic deviatoric tensor obtained from the high-field torque magnetometer with the paramagnetic bulk susceptibility measured from magnetization curves of the crystals. This leads to the full paramagnetic susceptibility ellipsoid due to the anisotropic distribution of iron cations in the silicate lattice. The ellipsoid of paramagnetic susceptibility, which was obtained for the three phyllosilicates, is highly oblate in shape and the minimum susceptibility direction is subparallel to the crystallographic c-axes. The anisotropy of the susceptibility within the basal plane of the biotite has been evaluated and found to be isotropic within the accuracy of the instrumental measurements. The degree of anisotropy of biotite and chlorite is compatible with previously reported values while for muscovite the smaller than previously published values. The shape of the chlorite AMS ellipsoid for all the samples is near-perfect oblate in contrast with a wide distribution of oblate and prolate values reported in earlier studies. Reliable values are important for deriving models of the magnetic anisotropy where it reflects mineral fabrics and deformation of rocks.     

德昌大陆槽稀土矿床的发现及其意义

着重阐述德昌大陆槽稀土矿床的发现经过，矿床基本地质特征和发现的重大意义．     

中国传统农区过去300年耕地重建结果的对比分析

土地覆被变化是气候与生态效应模拟研究的重要参量。SAGE和HYDE两个全球历史土地利用数据集在相关研究中得到广泛应用, 但在区域尺度上的应用, 其可靠性如何, 至今少有论及。以我国学者重建的传统农区历史耕地数据集(CHCD) 为基础, 从全区、省区和网格(60 km×60 km) 三个空间尺度, 对SAGE (2010) 和HYDE3.1 数据集中有关中国传统农区历史耕地重建结果进行对比分析, 结果表明:(1) SAGE (2010) 数据集对中国传统农区耕地数量重建是以单一线性插补而得, 其中1700-1950 年是以0.51%的年均增长率线性递增, 1950 年后是以0.34%年均速率线性递减, 这种“标准化”变化趋势不能客观反映传统农区土地垦殖的真实历史, 耕地面积也明显高估, 与CHCD数据集不具有可比性;(2) HYDE3.1 数据集吸纳了区域性研究成果, 使其在总量上与CHCD数据集较为接近, 具有较好的可比性, 但其在省区和网格尺度上与CHCD存在显著差异, 其中相对差异率超过70% (< -70%或> 70%) 的网格占比高达56%~63%, 超过90% (< -90%或> 90%) 的网格占比也高达40%~45%;而相对差异率介于-10%~10%的网格占比仅为5%~6%, 介于-30%~30%的网格占比也仅为17%左右;(3) 充分利用我国丰富的历史文献, 建立更高精度的中国区域历史土地利用数据集, 是提高区域气候与生态效应模拟研究质量的重要保障。