Expected loss‐based alarm threshold set for earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) seem to have potential as tools for real‐time seismic risk management and mitigation. In fact, although the evacuation of buildings requires warning time not available in many urbanized areas threatened by seismic hazard, they may still be used for the real‐time protection of critical facilities using automatic systems in order to reduce the losses subsequent to a catastrophic event. This is possible due to the real‐time seismology, which consists of methods and procedures for the rapid estimation of earthquake features, as magnitude and location, based on measurements made on the first seconds of the P‐waves. An earthquake engineering application of earthquake early warning (EEW) may be intended as a system able to issue the alarm, if some recorded parameter exceeds a given threshold, to activate risk mitigation actions before the quake strikes at a site of interest. Feasibility analysis and design of such EEWS require the assessment of the expected loss reduction due to the security action and set of the alarm threshold. In this paper a procedure to carry out these tasks in the performance‐based earthquake engineering probabilistic framework is proposed. A merely illustrative example refers to a simple structure assumed to be a classroom. Structural damage and non‐structural collapses are considered; the security action is to shelter occupants below the desks. The cost due to a false alarm is assumed to be related to the interruption of didactic activities. Results show how the comparison of the expected losses, for the alarm‐issuance and non‐issuance cases, allows setting the alarm threshold on a quantitative and consistent basis, and how it may be a tool for the design of engineering applications of EEW. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improved seismic hazard model with application to probabilistic seismic demand analysis

An improved seismic hazard model for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering is presented. The model is an improved approximation from the so‐called ‘power law’ model, which is linear in log–log space. The mathematics of the model and uncertainty incorporation is briefly discussed. Various means of fitting the approximation to hazard data derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are discussed, including the limitations of the model. Based on these ‘exact’ hazard data for major centres in New Zealand, the parameters for the proposed model are calibrated. To illustrate the significance of the proposed model, a performance‐based assessment is conducted on a typical bridge, via probabilistic seismic demand analysis. The new hazard model is compared to the current power law relationship to illustrate its effects on the risk assessment. The propagation of epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard is also considered. To allow further use of the model in conceptual calculations, a semi‐analytical method is proposed to calculate the demand hazard in closed form. For the case study shown, the resulting semi‐analytical closed form solution is shown to be significantly more accurate than the analytical closed‐form solution using the power law hazard model, capturing the ‘exact’ numerical integration solution to within 7% accuracy over the entire range of exceedance rate. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多极子声波测井在低孔低渗气层中的数值研究

现有的天然气勘探中的测井技术,在评价低孔低渗气层时遇到诸多难题,本文引入了一种新的气藏评价方法,即利用多极源激发的模式波的幅度来识别气藏,并对此方法进行了数值验证.以Biot多孔介质理论为基础建立了低孔低渗含气储层计算模型,数值计算了多极子声源在充液井孔中激发的频散曲线、衰减曲线以及全波列波形.结果表明,挠曲波和螺旋波的衰减系数与相速度相比,对孔隙中的流体性质更敏感,且随着多极源级数的增加和工作主频的提高,挠曲波和螺旋波的衰减系数的变化程度明显增强;在偶极子和四极子激发的全波列波形中,可清晰的观测到对地层孔隙流体不敏感的地层横波,在这种情况下,可以通过对比波列中地层横波和频散的弯曲波(或螺旋波)幅度来识别气层.     

Application of <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs fingerprinting technique to interpreting sediment production records from reservoir deposits in a small catchment of the Hilly Loess Plateau,China

According to variations of 137Cs and clay contents, 44 flood couplets were identified in a profile of reservoir deposit with a vertical length of 28.12 m in the Yuntaishan Gully. Couplet 27 at the middle of the profile had the highest average 137Cs content of 12.65 Bq kg-1, which indicated the 1963s' deposits, then 137Cs content decreased both downward and upward in the profile. The second top and bottom couplets had average 137Cs contents of 2.15 Bq kg-1 and 0.92 Bq kg-1, respectively. By integrated analysis of reservoir construction and management history, variations of 137Cs contents over the profile, sediment yields of flood couplets and rainfall data during the period of 1958-1970, individual storms related to the flood couplets were identified. 44 floods with a total sediment yield of 2.36×104 m3 occurred and flood events in a year varied between 1 and 10 times during the period of 1960-1970. 7-10 flood events occurred during the wet period of 1961-1964 with very wet autumn, while only 1-2 events during the dry period of 1965-1969. Average annual specific sediment yield was 1.29×104 t km-2 a-1 for the Yuntaishan Gully during the period of 1960-1970, which was slightly higher than 1.11 ×104 t km-2 a-1 for the Upper Yanhe River Basin above the Ganguyi Hydrological Station and slightly lower than 1.40 ×104 t km-2 a-1 for the nearby Zhifang Gully during the same period. Annual specific sediment yields for the Yuntaishan Gully were correlated to the wet season's rainfalls well.     

利用谱聚类方法研究新丰江库区的震源机制解

为检验震源机制解谱聚类方法的实用性,选择新丰江库区为研究区域,利用FOCMEC方法反演了该区域2012年1月1日—2018年12月31日M_L2.0以上地震的震源机制解,并对其进行了谱聚类分析,最终获得该区域7种震源机制解类型;通过分析每种类型的震源机制解特征及其时空分布特征,探讨了震源机制解类型分布与区域构造的关系。结果表明:(1)新丰江库区地震破裂类型以正断型为主,兼有部分倾滑分量,其次为走滑型;(2)不同类型的震源机制解具有区域性的空间分布特征,主要受不同的构造背景影响,反映了新丰江库区地震活动和构造特征之间的关系;(3)不同类型震源机制解所描述的断裂分布反映了峡谷及大坝区库水渗透的构造条件,解释了区域地震频发的可能原因;(4)每种类型的震源机制解在研究时间范围内数量变化较为稳定。     

低周反复荷载下Q460钢材框架柱抗震性能分析

为了进一步完善Q460钢材在抗震设计规范中相关限值的要求,本文利用有限元软件ABAQUS,以轴压比、翼缘宽厚比、腹板高厚比和壁板宽厚比为变量,建立了共48根“工”字型框架柱和“箱”型框架柱,分析了其抗震性能。结果表明:翼缘宽厚比对框架柱的能量耗散系数影响较小;能量耗散系数随轴压比、腹板高厚比（“工”字型）和壁板宽厚比（“箱”型）增大而明显减小;框架柱的极限承载力随轴压比的减小及壁板宽厚比和翼缘宽厚比的增大而逐渐增大,当腹板高厚比接近规范限值时,承载力下降趋势明显增大。与采用Q235钢材的框架柱相比,Q460钢材框架柱的延性较小,仅为2左右;当采用Q460钢材时,“工”字型框架柱的极限位移角限值建议取为0.03,“箱”型框架柱的极限位移角限值建议取为0.032。规范中对翼缘宽厚比限值的规定偏于保守,其值最大可取至9。无论是“工”字型框架柱还是“箱”型框架柱,其腹板高厚比均不宜过大。Q460钢材框架柱的刚度退化率随轴压比的增大而增强,且翼缘宽厚比越大,腹板高厚比越小,柱的初始刚度越大,刚度退化程度越明显。     

室内管道系统抗震研究综述

根据最新震害统计资料发现,非结构构件在地震中造成的经济损失远大于结构构件。非结构构件按照地震反应特征可分为位移敏感型构件和加速度敏感型构件。其中,位移敏感型构件的破坏多受层间位移角控制,主要采用拟静力试验进行研究;加速度敏感型构件的破坏多受楼面加速度的控制,主要采用振动台试验进行研究。室内管道系统是非结构构件的重要组成部分,室内管道系统中的立管和水平管分别属于位移敏感型和加速度敏感型构件。本文系统地论述了近年来国内外学者开展的关于室内管道系统的抗震研究工作,并对室内管道系统下一步的研究工作提出了建议。     

管壁开孔足尺钢管混凝土柱抗震性能试验研究

针对钢筋混凝土梁与钢管混凝土柱的穿筋连接形式,研究了钢管开穿筋小孔及加固对钢管混凝土柱抗震性能的影响。对于未开孔、开孔和开孔并加固三种情况,进行了3个直径为610 mm的足尺钢管混凝土柱试件的低周反复荷载试验。试验结果表明:未开孔试件在距根部100 mm处发生钢管屈曲破坏;开孔试件的破坏主要是开孔处屈曲撕裂,开孔对钢管混凝土柱初期刚度和峰值承载力影响不大,但在峰值承载力后受孔边撕裂破坏影响,开孔试件的刚度和强度退化较快、延性和耗能能力降低;开孔并加固试件的破坏位置上移至加固段上部约90 mm处,与未开孔试件表现出相似的抗震性能。     

小跨高比强化配筋连梁的抗震性能

强化配筋连梁是指采用HRB400及以上钢筋、加密加粗腰筋、加粗箍筋的连梁。期望通过腰筋和箍筋形成的2层或更多层的高强钢筋网片来承受剪力,提高其抗震性能,施工较为方便,适用于小跨高比连梁。利用非线性有限元方法,在已完成普通配筋小跨高比连梁抗震性能试验的基础上,研究了跨高比为1.25的不同配筋形式连梁的抗震性能。研究表明:强化配筋连梁的骨架曲线出现2个峰值,峰值荷载为普通配筋连梁的1.37倍,其荷载下降速率约为普通配筋连梁的39.42%,具有较高的承载力。强化配筋连梁的峰值位移是集中对角斜筋、交叉斜筋和对角暗撑配筋连梁的三倍多,具有较强的变形能力。最后,建议采用深梁的方法计算强化配筋连梁的受剪承载力。     

应变率效应对600 MPa级高强钢筋混凝土框架结构抗震性能影响研究

为了更真实地进行钢筋混凝土结构抗震性能评估,应该考虑材料的应变率效应影响。600 MPa级高强钢筋作为新一代建筑钢材,尚无考虑应变率效应影响的600 MPa级高强钢筋混凝土框架结构抗震性能研究。首先进行了不同应变率下600 MPa级高强钢筋拉伸力学性能试验,利用试验数据拟合得到600 MPa级高强钢筋在不同应变率下的强度提高系数表达式,并利用OpenSees软件进行了配置600 MPa级高强钢筋混凝土框架结构抗震性能模拟分析,研究了应变率效应对框架结构抗震性能的影响。研究结果表明:随着应变率的增大,钢筋的屈服强度和极限强度均得到提高,屈服强度最大提高11.5%,极限强度最大提高8.9%;随着所考虑的材料应变率增加,配置600 MPa级高强钢筋框架结构最大顶点位移总体上呈减小趋势,地震波强度越强,应变率效应影响越大,而层间位移角减小幅值相差不大。研究成果可作为600MPa级高强钢筋混凝土框架结构抗震评估的依据。