水库流域入库洪水预报误差分析

由于受水库枢纽工程的影响，使得反推计算的入库流量本身就存在较大的误差，从而增加了入库洪水预报模型研制的难度，影响了这时预报精度的考核。通过对全国诸多水电厂水库流域实时洪水预报的实践，对其入库洪水预报中存在的误差原因及解决方法进行了科学的分析和阐述，以指导实时预报。     

陕甘宁盆地中部气田马五1段储层识别模型

本文应用多项式自组织方法，以１０个特征参数建立了中部气田马五１段储层气、水、干层判识的非线性网络模型，９２个已知样本的吻合率达９８．９％，为储层识别探索了又一新的方法，可供矿场参考     

Reservoir Diagenesis Sequence and Framework in Intracontinent Rift Basin,East China

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Small-scale vegetation dynamics in semi-arid steppe in Inner Mongolia

Small-scale vegetation dynamics were followed for ecotones and in uniform stands inArtemisia-dominated steppe vegetation under grazing and when recovering from heavy grazing. Species composition was followed annually for 5 years in 1 m²and 0·25 m²plots for (1) presence–absence; (2) density; and (3) biomass.More rapid vegetation dynamics, in terms of change of type of vegetation and distance moved in DCA species space between sampling occasions, were observed in smaller plots and in early seral stages, where species were few and alpha diversity low. Only the plots recently protected from grazing showed a directional vegetation change; those protected for more than 3 years and those under continued grazing showed, at this scale, non-directional dynamics.     

新疆阿合勒－冲乎尔地区泥盆纪相动力学研究

阿合勒－冲乎尔火山沉积盆地是一个以火山岩并伴有陆源和内源沉积物的堆积场所，即该区泥盆纪地层是以事件作用的产物为其主要成分特点。显然，对其古地理的恢复、相的划分采用传统的相序分析方法是不合适的。作者认为要阐明该区泥盆纪的古地理面貌，必须在区域地层研究基础上，综合分析各种相标志和沉积物的特点，寻求它们的物理成因和地质成因解。在这一过程中，相的动力学分析显得尤为重要。本文在上述学术思想指导下，把本区泥盆纪的相分为成因相和环境相两大类，并对其中的微相进行了详细的阐述，从而为把沉积学的原理和方法应用了火山岩的搬运机制和堆积环境研究中提供了先期研究实例，同时为研究和恢复该区以至整个新疆北部泥盆纪的古地理格局打下了坚实的基础。     

滑坡定量预测的非线性理论方法

滑坡时空预测是当前滑坡研究中的难题，特别是滑坡时间预测工作，其进展缓慢。本文基于非线性科学理论，分析了滑坡活动的分形特征及时间分形预测方法，研究了滑坡空间预测的人工神经网络特征，系统介绍了滑坡时间预测的非线性动力学理论。在此基础上，讨论了滑坡定量预测的发展趋势。     

A Study on Organic Inclusions in Clastic Reservoir Rocks and Their Application to the Assessment of Oil and Gas Accumulations

Terrigenous clastic reservoir rocks are widespread in China,and nearly all the industrial oil and gas accumulations in eastern China occur in the clastic rocks.The study shows that organic inclusions are mostly distributed in the secondary fissures and pores which were ormed in the process of oil-rock interaction,rather than in the cements or secondary enlargements. The organic inclusions are dominantly organic gas-rich or are composed of pure hydrocarbons.Homogenization temperatures range mainly from 120℃ to 130℃，which shows a relatively high maturity of organic matter.Vertical and horizontal temperature changes provide the grounds for the investigation of basin evolution and thermal fluid-kinetics-model.Fluorescence spectral characteristics o the organic inclusions indicate that oils and gases in the area studied probably have experienced two-stage or two-time migration.Micro-fluorescence rescearch is one of the effective approaches to oil/source correlation and oil migration-stage determination.The abundance and occurrence of organic inclusions is one of the indicators of oil and gas abundance and accumulation in rock layers.With the help of other informatio,organic inclusions can provide the basis for the prospective assessment of oil and gas in clastic reservoir rocks.