渤海水环境无机氮污染风险研究

渤海海域污染日趋严重, 无机氮是主要的污染因子, 对无机氮未来趋势的预测及风险空间分布的分析可为减缓和管理渤海海域污染提供依据。本文基于2000 到2011 年渤海无机氮的趋势性监测数据, 用IDW 插值和回归分析方法对其发展趋势进行预测, 并根据其发展趋势预测今后5 年渤海海域无机氮含量, 划分了渤海无机氮污染的高、中、较低和低风险区, 为渤海无机氮污染控制提供科学依据。     

A condition index for African penguin Spheniscus demersus chicks

The body condition of altricial seabird chicks is directly related to the amount of food received from their parents, which depends on feeding conditions at sea. An index of body condition is therefore a useful tool for assessing variation in food availability between different breeding colonies. Quantile regression techniques were used to develop a body condition index for African penguin Spheniscus demersus chicks, based on maximum and minimum growth relative to structural size. This is considered the most appropriate index for comparing the body condition of groups of chicks, varying in size and of unknown age, between breeding colonies. Based on this study, recommendations are made with regard to morphometric measurements, sample size and the sampling interval required to compare effectively the condition of African penguin chicks between breeding colonies throughout their distributional range.     

基于二项logistic回归模型与CART树的煤层底板突水预测

为定量评价煤层底板突水信息对突水过程的影响程度,获得煤层底板突水规则,采用二项logistic回归与CART树相结合的方法进行煤层底板突水预测。在煤层底板突水信息分析的基础上,建立了包含全因素的煤层底板突水预测概率模型,基于向后逐步回归分析方法获得了包含6项主要突水信息的精简煤层底板突水预测概率模型。通过CART树算法获得了煤层底板突水规则,分类测试结果表明,所获得的突水规则分类准确率达到91.67%。      

基于Casagrande法数学分析确定先期固结压力

Casagrande经验作图法是国际上通用的确定先期固结压力的方法,但其存在以下缺点：曲线绘制繁琐、若绘图比例不合适,则最小曲率半径点不易确定、人为判断误差较大。而工程中所采用的土工试验数据处理商用软件计算先期固结压力,其算法、精度分析是黑匣子,结果精度值得商榷。在总结以往研究成果基础上,结合理论研究和工程实践要求,依据《土工试验方法标准》[1],采用3次多项式和最小二乘法回归拟合压缩曲线,并考虑绘图比例影响,编写程序确定先期固结压力,最后通过具体工程土工试验数据验证了程序求解不仅能避免经验作图法的缺陷,而且结果直观清晰。     

粉质黏土图像的纹理特征分析

粉质黏土通常为絮状结构, 难以使用肉眼直接判别出颗粒的形状和大小。将现场拍摄得到的粉质黏土彩色图像转化为灰度图像,得到了灰度图像灰度直方图的6个纹理特征参数（均值、方差、平滑度、3阶矩、能量、熵）。在建立灰度共生矩阵的基础上,得到了像素平面分布关系的5个纹理特征参数（角2阶矩、对比度、相关度、逆差矩、熵）。对这些纹理特征参数与粉质黏土传统工程性质指标进行了多元线性回归分析,得到了相应回归方程。结果表明,粉质黏土图像的纹理特征参数与传统工程性质具有较好的对应关系,可以用于快速确定粉质黏土的工程性质指标,对软土地区岩土工程设计具有一定的参考价值。     

大岗山水电站坝区初始地应力场反演分析

针对大岗山水电站坝区V型河谷地形地貌特征,根据地应力实测资料及地质构造条件,考虑边坡浅表全风化、强风化地层以及断层破碎带对坝区初始地应力场的影响,建立了坝区初始地应力场三维回归计算分析模型。通过多元回归三维数值计算,求得地应力最优回归系数,较为准确地反演了大岗山坝区的初始地应力场。计算结果表明,大岗山坝区初始地应力场是一个在浅部以构造应力为主、在深部以自重应力为主、由构造应力和自重应力联合组成的中等偏高的地应力场,研究结果为坝区边坡开挖及长期稳定性分析提供了重要依据。     

城市连拱隧道施工地表沉降分析及预测研究

地表沉降的研究工作大都集中在地铁隧道盾构法施工的情况,而对于矿山法城市双连拱隧道施工引起地表沉降的研究几乎没有。本文以重庆彭家花园双连拱隧道为工程背景,就矿山法双连拱隧道施工引起的地表变形进行研究。在不同施工方法条件下,针对不同埋深、断面大小进行回归分析,从理论上弄清地表沉降的规律,根据实测资料,提出矿山法施工条件下地表沉降的预测公式。并结合三维数值模拟验证了回归效果     

Groundwater control on the suspended sediment load in the Na Borges River, Mallorca, Spain

Groundwater dominance has important effects on the hydrological and geomorphological characteristics of river systems. Low suspended sediment concentrations and high water clarity are expected because significant inputs of sediment-free spring water dilute the suspended sediment generated by storms. However, in many Mediterranean rivers, groundwater dominance is characterised by seasonal alternations of influent and effluent discharge involving significant variability on the sediment transport regimes. Such areas are often subject to soil and water conservation practices over the centuries that have reduced the sediment contribution from agricultural fields and favour subsurface flow to rivers. Moreover, urbanisation during the twentieth century has changed the catchment hydrology and altered basic river processes due to its ‘flashy’ regime. In this context, we monitored suspended sediment fluxes during a two-year period in the Na Borges River, a lowland agricultural catchment (319 km²) on the island of Mallorca (Balearic Islands). The suspended sediment concentration (SSC) was lower when the base flow index (i.e., relative proportion of baseflow compared to stormflow, BFI) was higher. Therefore, strong seasonal contrasts explain the high SSC coefficient of variation, which is clearly related to dilution effects associated with different groundwater and surface water seasonal interactions. A lack of correlation in the Q-SSC rating curves shows that factors other than discharge control sediment transport. As a result, at the event scale, multiple regressions illustrate that groundwater and surface water interactions are involved in the sedimentary response of flood events. In the winter, the stability of baseflow driven by groundwater contributions and agricultural and urban spills causes hydraulic variables (i.e., maximum discharge) to exert the most important control on events, whereas in the summer, it is necessary to accumulate important volumes of rainfall, creating a minimum of wet conditions in the catchment to activate hydrological pathways and deliver sediment to the drainage network. The BFI is also related to sediment delivery processes, as the loads are higher with lower BFI, corroborating the fact that most sediment movement is caused by stormflow and its related factors. Overall, suspended sediment yields were very low (i.e., < 1 t km^− 2 yr^− 1) at all measuring sites. Such values are the consequence of the limited sediment delivery attributable to soil conservation practices, low surface runoff coefficients and specific geomorphic features of groundwater-dominated rivers, such as low drainage density, low gradient, steep valley walls and flat valley floors.     

空间实体要素与城市房地产投资的关系研究

从城市空间构成要素的角度出发,将影响房地产投资的实体要素划分为3个部分:物质实体、经济实体和社会文化实体,并选择其中有代表性的指标,运用Spss软件对东部地区13个省会城市及直辖市进行实证研究,分析各要素与投资额的相关性,并建立回归模型.结果显示,在众要素的相互作用下,物质实体中道路面积变化和经济实体中工业数量变化与城市房地产投资额的关系最大.在此基础上,提出房地产投资应该由"土地价格导向"转变为"人口需求导向",通过促进工业转型以及加强社会文化实体建设,合理引导房地产投资发展.     

南京河西地区岩土体剪切波速与土层深度的关系

南京河西地区是南京市重点开发的新市区,该区域工程地质条件相似,主要为长江高河漫滩地质地貌单元。本文选取该地区47个典型钻孔的岩土体剪切波速资料,采用三种数学模型进行统计回归分析,运用相关系数R（或测定系数R^2）检验Vs-H之间的线性相关关系,并根据计算的SD值选择较优的数学模型。统计结果表明,该地区各类岩土体的Vs-H线性相关关系显著,说明采用上述数学模型进行Vs-H回归是可行的。对两个工程场地进行剪切波速预测,并对场地类别作出划分,检验结果表明,该地区各类岩土体的Vs-H经验关系是可靠的,符合当地岩土特征,在样本深度范围内有足够的工程应用精度,可以应用。