A nonparametric characterization of vertical ground motion effects

Design guidelines have traditionally oversimplified the vertical ground motion effects by defining a constant vertical‐to‐horizontal response spectral ratio (V/H). With the recognition that such practice is not always conservative, recent studies have proposed improvements to the representation of vertical seismic effects in design codes, based on empirical ground motion relations. Conventional empirical modeling requires selecting the functional form of the predictive model. Because of the complicated nature of ground motions, identification of the underlying function is a challenge. A related drawback to this approach is its high susceptibility to overfitting, especially with today's highly complex models. To address these issues, this paper proposes a nonparametric approach to characterize the vertical seismic effects. Using support vector machines, the V/H ratio is determined without an assumed functional form. The accuracy of the model is measured by adopting an epsilon‐insensitive residual function with a regularization term added to prevent overfitting. An example application using ground motion records from strike‐slip and normal faulting earthquakes is presented, and the results are compared with a current empirical model, for different magnitude, distance, and local soil conditions. The median V/H estimates from the two models are shown to be in good general agreement. The standard deviation estimates from the proposed model are consistently larger than the estimates from the empirical model. The results from this study show that the proposed method is a viable alternative and offers the opportunity to characterize vertical seismic effects without an assumed functional form. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

高光谱遥感土壤有机质信息提取研究

土壤反射光谱特征分析是反演土壤信息参量的基础资料。本文阐述了使用航空成像光谱仪OMIS- Ⅰ数据并 结合ASD FieldSpec FR(350~2500nm)便携式光谱仪获取野外光谱数据, 对山东省烟台市招远东良乡原状农用土有 机质含量进行反演, 从而实现有机质填图。通过对土壤原反射率对数一阶微分变换并确定其与SOM的相关性, 最 终建立相应的多元线性回归方程。分析认为土壤有机质的测定选用762nm、874nm 及1667nm 波段在本次研究中效 果最佳。该模型也可作为土壤有机质估测和评价的参考。     

一种新的时间序列特征指标:简单线性回归系数SLC

长时间序列遥感图像中含有大量的噪声和坏数据,给分类带来困难。该文提出一种新的时间序列特征指标:像元时间序列的简单线性回归系数(SLC),用来提高分类精度。为证明其有效性,设计出一套模拟实验。结果表明:SLC具有较强的抗噪声、抗坏数据能力,有利于提高分类精度,特别是对于植被指数时间序列遥感图像。     

日本镜蛤(Dosinia japonica Reeve)壳尺寸与重量性状的相关与回归分析

采用相关分析、共线性分析、多元回归分析及通径分析的方法对日本镜蛤(Dosinia japonica)的壳尺寸性状与重量性状间的关系进行了研究。相关分析结果表明,所测量的日本镜蛤的各性状间均呈极显著的表型相关(P<0.01);共线性分析剔除了与各壳性状存在严重共线性的壳长;通径分析表明,壳高和壳宽是直接影响体重和壳重的主要性状,壳宽和b(壳顶至壳后)是直接影响软体部重和软体部干重的主要性状,而直接影响体积的壳尺寸性状只有壳高;采用逐步回归的方法,建立了壳尺寸性状对体积和重量性状的最优回归方程,可为日本镜蛤的养殖和选择育种提供理论依据。     

An experimental and numerical study of the freak wave speed

The propagation speed is one of the most important characteristics for describing freak waves. The research of freak wave speed is not only helpful for understanding the generation mechanism and evolution process of freak waves, but also applicable to the prediction. A stable and accurate method is proposed for the calculation of the freak wave speed, in which physical model tests are carried out to measure the motion of the largest wave crest along the wave tank. The linear regression relationship between the spatial position of the largest wave crest and instantaneous moment is established to calculate the speed of totally 248 cases of experimental freak waves and 312 supplementary cases of numerical freak waves. Based on the calculate results, a semitheoretical and semiempirical formula is proposed by using a regression analysis method to predict the speed of the freak wave, and the nonlinear characteristic of the freak wave speed is also investigated.     

The validation of HY-2 altimetermeasurements of a significant wave height based on buoy data

HY-2 has been launched by China on August 16, 2011 which assembles multi-microwave remote sensing payloads in a body and has the ability of monitoring ocean dynamic environments. The HY-2 satellite data need to be calibrated and validated before being put into use. Based on the in-situ buoys from the Nation- al Data Buoy Center （NDBC）, Ku-band significant wave heights （SWH, hs） of HY-2 altimeter are validated. Eleven months of HY-2 altimeter Level 2 products data are chose from October 1, 2011 to August 29, 2012. Using NDBC 60 buoys yield 902 collocations for HY-2 by adopting collocation criteria of 30 min for tempo- ral window and 50 km for a spatial window. An overall RMS difference of the SWH between HY-2 and buoy data is 0.297 m. A correlation coefficient between these is 0.964. An ordinary least squares （OLS） regression is performed with the buoy data as an independent variable and the altimeter data as a dependent vari- able. The regression equation of hs is hs （HY-2）=0.891 × hs （NDBC）＋0.022. In addition, 2016 collocations are matched with temporal window of 30 rain at the crossing points of HY-2 and Jason-2 orbits. RMS difference of Ku-band SWH between the two data sets is 0.452 m.     

渤海水环境无机氮污染风险研究

渤海海域污染日趋严重, 无机氮是主要的污染因子, 对无机氮未来趋势的预测及风险空间分布的分析可为减缓和管理渤海海域污染提供依据。本文基于2000 到2011 年渤海无机氮的趋势性监测数据, 用IDW 插值和回归分析方法对其发展趋势进行预测, 并根据其发展趋势预测今后5 年渤海海域无机氮含量, 划分了渤海无机氮污染的高、中、较低和低风险区, 为渤海无机氮污染控制提供科学依据。     

A condition index for African penguin Spheniscus demersus chicks

The body condition of altricial seabird chicks is directly related to the amount of food received from their parents, which depends on feeding conditions at sea. An index of body condition is therefore a useful tool for assessing variation in food availability between different breeding colonies. Quantile regression techniques were used to develop a body condition index for African penguin Spheniscus demersus chicks, based on maximum and minimum growth relative to structural size. This is considered the most appropriate index for comparing the body condition of groups of chicks, varying in size and of unknown age, between breeding colonies. Based on this study, recommendations are made with regard to morphometric measurements, sample size and the sampling interval required to compare effectively the condition of African penguin chicks between breeding colonies throughout their distributional range.     

基于二项logistic回归模型与CART树的煤层底板突水预测

为定量评价煤层底板突水信息对突水过程的影响程度,获得煤层底板突水规则,采用二项logistic回归与CART树相结合的方法进行煤层底板突水预测。在煤层底板突水信息分析的基础上,建立了包含全因素的煤层底板突水预测概率模型,基于向后逐步回归分析方法获得了包含6项主要突水信息的精简煤层底板突水预测概率模型。通过CART树算法获得了煤层底板突水规则,分类测试结果表明,所获得的突水规则分类准确率达到91.67%。      

基于Casagrande法数学分析确定先期固结压力

Casagrande经验作图法是国际上通用的确定先期固结压力的方法,但其存在以下缺点：曲线绘制繁琐、若绘图比例不合适,则最小曲率半径点不易确定、人为判断误差较大。而工程中所采用的土工试验数据处理商用软件计算先期固结压力,其算法、精度分析是黑匣子,结果精度值得商榷。在总结以往研究成果基础上,结合理论研究和工程实践要求,依据《土工试验方法标准》[1],采用3次多项式和最小二乘法回归拟合压缩曲线,并考虑绘图比例影响,编写程序确定先期固结压力,最后通过具体工程土工试验数据验证了程序求解不仅能避免经验作图法的缺陷,而且结果直观清晰。