GIS techniques for regional-scale landslide susceptibility assessment: the Sicily (Italy) case study

This study describes the assessment of landslide susceptibility in Sicily (Italy) at a 1:100,000 scale using a multivariate logistic regression model. The model was implemented in a GIS environment by using the ArcSDM (Arc Spatial Data Modeller) module, modified to develop spatial prediction through regional data sets. A newly developed algorithm was used to automatically extract the detachment area from mapped landslide polygons. The following factors were selected as independent variables of the logistic regression model: slope gradient, lithology, land cover, a curve number derived index and a pluviometric anomaly index. The above-described configuration has been verified to be the best one among others employing from three to eight factors. All the regression coefficients and parameters were calculated using selected landslide training data sets. The results of the analysis were validated using an independent landslide data set. On an average, 82% of the area affected by instability and 79% of the not affected area were correctly classified by the model, which proved to be a useful tool for planners and decision-makers.     

Late-Stage Breast Cancer Diagnosis and Health Care Access in Illinois∗

The variations of breast cancer mortality rates from place to place reflect both underlying differences in breast cancer prevalence and differences in diagnosis and treatment that affect the risk of death. This article examines the role of access to health care in explaining the variation of late-stage diagnosis of breast cancer. We use cancer registry data for the state of Illinois by zip code to investigate spatial variation in late diagnosis. Geographic information systems and spatial analysis methods are used to create detailed measures of spatial access to health care such as convenience of visiting primary care physicians and travel time from the nearest mammography facility. The effects of spatial access, in combination with the influences of socioeconomic factors, on late-stage breast cancer diagnosis are assessed using statistical methods. The results suggest that for breast cancer, poor geographical access to primary health care significantly increases the risk of late diagnosis for persons living outside the city of Chicago. Disadvantaged population groups including those with low income and racial and ethnic minorities tend to experience high rates of late diagnosis. In Illinois, poor spatial access to primary health care is more strongly associated with late diagnosis than is spatial access to mammography. This suggests the importance of primary care physicians as gatekeepers in early breast cancer detection.     

对氨基二甲基苯胺比色法测定的地下水中硫化物 不确定度的评定

采用不确定度连续传递模型对对氨基二甲基苯胺分光光度法测定的地下水中硫化物的不确定度进行了评定,在标准曲线拟合这一关键步骤上采用双误差曲线拟合,并与最小二乘法的拟合结果进行比较。结果表明,对于含较高浓度硫化物的水样,由双误差拟合出来的结果比最小二乘法拟合的结果更为准确。在采用双误差曲线拟合对实际样品进行定量时,应选择合适浓度范围内的标准曲线,使测定浓度落在标准曲线的较高浓度部分,使结果更为准确、合理。     

Determination of ultimate capacity of driven piles in cohesionless soil: A Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline approach

The determination of ultimate capacity (Q) of driven piles in cohesionless soil is an important task in geotechnical engineering. This article adopts Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) for prediction Q of driven piles in cohesionless soil. MARS uses length (L), angle of shear resistance of the soil around the shaft (?_shaft), angle of shear resistance of the soil at the tip of the pile (?_tip), area (A), and effective vertical stress at the tip of the pile as input variables. Q is the output of MARS. The results of MARS are compared with that of the Generalized Regression Neural Network model. An equation has been also presented based on the developed MARS. The results show the strong potential of MARS to be applied to geotechnical engineering as a regression tool. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

无线气象站数据与人工观测蒸发量的资料同化——以白鹤滩电站坝址区数据为例

在MATLAB中使用最小二乘法拟合Goff-Gratch公式,得到关于气温的饱和水汽压函数。无线气象站观测得到的气象资料结合人工观测蒸发量,在MATLAB中进行回归分析,得到基于彭曼公式的日水面蒸发量计算公式。算例表明,与无线气象站的蒸发量计算值相比,回归分析得到的日水面蒸发量公式计算值与人工观测值能够同步对比。无线气象站资料和人工观测资料能够资料同化,适合在工程中推广。     

基于两种机器学习方法分析东海北部海域三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus)时空分布

为了解东海北部海域三疣梭子蟹(Portunustrituberculatus)资源时空分布规律,探索更适合三疣梭子蟹资源量预测的模型方法,根据2006—2007年共四个季度在东海北部海域的底拖网调查数据,运用梯度提升回归树(gradientboostingregressiontree,GBRT)和支持向量机(supportvector machine,SVM)这两种机器学习方法,分析了三疣梭子蟹时空分布与环境因子之间的关系,同时使用方差解释率(VE)、相对均方根误差(RMSE)以及决定系数R2等指标对不同模型的拟合效果、预测性能以及稳定性等进行了比较,选择其中最佳模型对东海北部海域三疣梭子蟹资源分布进行预测。结果显示, GBRT模型的拟合效果相对优于SVM模型,两种模型的拟合结果均显示底层海水盐度(SBS)为影响三疣梭子蟹资源分布最为显著的环境因子。GBRT模型的预测性能较高且模型较为稳定,其预测结果显示夏季的资源量高于其他三个季节,且各季节所研究海域的东南部均存在一个资源分布的低值区。研究结果预期可为三疣梭子蟹资源分布及资源量预测新方法的探索和分析提供技术指导。     

Relation between GRACE-derived surface mass variations and precipitation over Australia

Surface mass changes (SMCs) obtained from time-variable gravity observations of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission and precipitation data from the Australian Bureau of Metrology and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission are analysed over the Australian continent to determine whether there is a statistically significant correlation between them. The multiple linear regression analysis and the principal-component analysis techniques are applied in order to reveal the spatial and temporal variability of each data set separately as well as their mutual relationships. The study provides results and their statistical significance for the whole of Australia including the Murray Darling Basin in the southeast. The results suggest a significant decrease in water storage in the southeast of Australia and a dominant annual cycle over the majority of the continent for the four year period considered (January 2003 to December 2006), both in the surface mass and rainfall time series. The study revealed a direct relation between the data sets over most parts of Australia as confirmed by visual comparison and correlation analysis. When compared with precipitation data GRACE-derived SMCs exhibit smoother spatial and temporal variations. The latter is better suited to detect long-term trends in the presence of strong annual signals, which can adversely affect long-term trend estimates. Results regarding the magnitude of the annual signal suggest that only about a fourth of the precipitation's water masses remain sufficiently long in an area to be detected as a gravity change. The respective phases of the annual signals show an average time lag of about 40 days between precipitation and SMCs, suggesting that it takes about one to two months until a temporal gravity observation can detect a precipitation event.     

昆明高(超高)层建筑环境振动特性实测与统计分析

对昆明16栋典型钢筋混凝土高层建筑物的振动特征(包括建筑物的固有频率、振型和阻尼比)进行观测与分析,对地震响应数值模拟研究,获取实测高层建筑物第一至第三振型及结构,计算第一至第二振型自振周期结果,采用数学线性回归方法,模拟得到昆明高(超高)层建筑结构实测第一至三振型和计算第一至第二振型周期公式,为类似建筑结构的设计提供经验和依据。     

河口海域水流挟沙能力分析

水流挟沙力是反映河床处于冲淤平衡状态下水流挟带泥沙能力的综台性指标。作者通过对众多挟沙力公式的分析比较,基于量纲和谐的考虑,建立了新的挟沙力公式形式。本文以长江口的泥沙输运为例,利用长江口泥沙实测资料,研究了新建立的挟沙力公式在长江口的适用性。计算结果表明,本文作者建立的公式在长江口具有一定的适用性,与刘家驹公式相比较,计算精度差不多,计算结果尚令人满意,但还存在一定的误差,说明将本文建立的挟沙力公式进行率定后,可以将其推广到近岸河口海域,为工程实践提供有益的参考价值。     

固原体应变与水位和气压相关性研究

通过对固原体应变与水位、气压等影响因素的相关分析,以及对M2波潮汐因子相对误差等参数的计算,结果显示体应变观测与水位变化长期存在高度反向相关,与气压短期存在高度正相关,且体应变随气压变化在时间上存在40分钟左右的滞后效应。并利用回归相关分析消除水位、气压影响,探讨了体应变与水位、气压相关系数以及响应系数在宁夏地区小震前的变化特点。