基于洪峰模数的山洪灾害雨量预警指标研究

山洪灾害预警是防御山洪的重要非工程措施,雨量预警指标是山洪灾害预警的关键。目前的雨量预警指标计算方法对水文气象资料条件以及模型建模率定都有很高的要求,并不适用于基层防汛人员。因此,本文基于全国山洪灾害调查评价成果数据,提出了一种运用洪峰模数计算雨量预警指标的简便、易用的方法。该方法以小流域洪水计算推理公式为基础,将公式中流量与流域面积的比值用洪峰模数表示,得到基于洪峰模数的临界雨量估算公式,并考虑流域土壤含水量等因素,分析临界雨量变化阈值,最终得到雨量预警指标。本文以云南省绥江县双河小流域为例,计算结果显示不同时段（1 h、3 h、6 h）净雨量和预警时段呈线性关系。降雨损失计算中洼地蓄水和植被截留在不同时段相同,土壤下渗在不同的时段不相同。在此基础上,计算不同土壤含水量条件下,不同时段的雨量预警指标。最后,对临界流量、降雨损失和预警指标进行了合理性分析,结果显示预警指标和调查评价结果及实测降雨都比较接近,计算的预警指标合理。本研究为基层山洪灾害预警提供了一种快速、便捷的预警指标计算方法,为预警指标计算提供技术支持。     

Etude isotopique de la pluie et de la neige sur le Mont Liban: premiers résultats / Isotope study of snow and rain on Mount Lebanon: preliminary results

Résumé

Résumé Quelques analyses isotopiques préliminaires ont été réalisées sur les précipitations pluvio-neigeuses, sur un profil de neige et sur deux sources karstiques sur le Mont Liban. Elles confirment la variabilité saisonnière du signal atmosphérique et en particulier que l’excès en deutérium est en relation avec l’origine des masses d’air et avec les recharges de vapeur sur la Méditerranée. Elles montrent également une relative stabilité du signal isotopique du couvert neigeux, peu ou pas influencé par les phénomènes de sublimation, d’évaporation ou de fonte/regel. La participation progressive de la fonte du manteau neigeux à l’alimentation des sources karstiques est qualitativement observée.     

中国大陆流域分区TRMM降水质量评价

根据中国境内2 257个气象站点1998-2013年逐日降水资料,结合流域分区,采用探测准确性、相关系数以及相对误差等指标,对热带降水测量（TRMM）降水精度和一致性进行系统评价。结果表明:① TRMM日降水准确性从东南沿海向西北内陆递减;② 气象站点年均降水日数显著大于TRMM年均降水日数;③ 西北片区以外气象站点降水量和TRMM降水量在月尺度和年尺度上均具有较好的相关关系;④ 各流域年均TRMM面降水量均高于气象站点面降水量,且TRMM面降水量相对误差雨季较小,枯季较大;⑤ 各流域TRMM面降水量与气象站点面降水量演变趋势基本一致,南方各流域年降水量均呈减少趋势,北方各流域年降水量均呈增加趋势,全国尺度上年降水量呈微弱的减少趋势。     

Spatial Concentration in Australian Regional Development,Exogenous Shocks and Regional Demographic Outcomes: a South Australian case study

ABSTRACT

As a tribute to the massive contribution of our friend and colleague Graeme Hugo to the population and settlement geography of Australian rural areas, this paper presents a longitudinal study from his home State. It forms part of a wider study of the long-term demographic relationships between Australia’s rapidly growing regional cities and their surrounding functional regions. Of particular interest is the question of what effect the accelerating concentration of population and economic activity into a given regional city will have for the longer term demographic sustainability of its functional region as a whole. Taking the case of Port Lincoln, regional capital of most of South Australia’s Eyre Peninsula, it examines the nature of change in the functional region over the period 1947–2011, and investigates the forces feeding, and partly counteracting, the population concentration process, informed by concepts of evolutionary economic geography. In particular it traces the demographic impact (particularly differential migration and ageing trends) of exogenous shocks to the region’s essentially primary productive economic base during the period of major change from 1981 to 2011.     

“To Understand the Place”: Geographical Knowledge and Diplomatic Practice

Diplomats produce a great deal of geographical knowledge: By reporting on distant places to their governments, they create particular understandings of political space. Yet these professionals rarely link their work to geography: What a geographer might call a geographical sensibility is labeled cultural knowledge by a diplomat. This article clarifies the relationship between geographical knowledge and diplomatic practice. Empirically, it draws from nearly 100 interviews with foreign policy professionals to offer a more “peopled” or quasi-ethnographic account of diplomacy than is usually available in scholarly literature. Conceptually, the article contributes to our understanding of how geographical knowledge is created inside diplomatic and bureaucratic institutions.     

Variability of levee failure mechanisms subject to heavy rainfalls,case studies in Taiwan

In this study, the failure mechanisms for Chiuliao 1st Levee and Gueishan Levee in Taiwan were re-examined comprehensively considering the uncertainty of different parameters. Results have shown that for Chiuliao 1st Levee, the slope sliding failure has a higher coefficient of variation (COV). For Gueishan Levee, retaining wall sliding and overturning failure have higher values of COV instead. It can also be found that the scouring depths affect the stability of the levee significantly, therefore, a protecting system for the backfill material may be necessary to increase the stability of the levee effectively.     

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF RAINFALL IN THE NAM RIVER DAM BASIN OF KOREA

An investigation into rainfall variability in time and space in the Nam River dam basin of Korea is made with the use of the coefficient of variation and the correlation coefficient. The Nam River dam basin is a small mountainous watershed where wind direction and orography are the dominant influences on the pattern and distribution of rainfall. Rainfall distribution was found to vary with elevation, position, wind direction and distance from a reference station. The results of this study can be used in the design of rain gauge network, hydrological forecasting and for other applications in the Nam River dam basin.     

区域性中心城市辐射力及其评价--以郑州市为例

文章以郑州市为例,主要研究了区域性中心城市辐射力指标体系,采用层次分析法对所研究指标进行了赋值。以此为基础,用裂点法对郑州与周边相邻、相关城市的不同城市要素相互作用的范围进行了分析。找出了郑州作为区域性中心城市的影响区域、发展优势和不足,并就提高郑州辐射力的途径、措施进行了研究。     

当代中国城镇体系地域空间结构类型定量研究

当代中国城市的地域空间分布并不具有随机性分布特征,过去运用泊松方程规定的随机分布模型对城镇体系地域空间结构定量划分存在一定的局限性。借助牛顿引力学方程对随机分布模型进行改进,构建城市空间分布的引力模型,利用2002年数据,以省级行政区为基本空间单元,对中国城镇体系地域空间结构类型进行定量研究,得出6个块状组团式城市聚集区、10个条状组团式城市聚集区和8个以大城市为核心的城市群的结构特征,其中东部省区以多核心多组团式的城市块状聚集区为主,中部省区以单中心单组团式的条状聚集区为主,西部省区以大城市为核心的城市群为主。东、中、西三大地带城市发育水平差别较大,梯度现象较为明显。     

1980年以来中国农地利用变化的区域差异

依托1980~2002年的中国农产品成本收益资料与中国农业统计年鉴等基础数据,从集约度、播种面积与耕地撂荒变化三个方面,对中国1980年以来农地利用变化的区域差异进行了研究。结果表明：① 西部地区农地利用的集约度具有强劲的上升态势,而东、中部地区在1992~1993年时集约度下降显著,在1997年以后,集约度具有明显的持续下降趋势;② 东部地区农地利用的总播种面积显著下降,而西部地区却有相当稳定的扩大趋势;③ 东部、中部与西部地区三种粮食作物的播种面积变化均经历了一个“三缩二扩”的变化过程：“缩小 (1980~1985)-扩大 (1985~1991)-缩小 (1991~1994)-扩大 (1994~1999)-再缩小 (1999~ 2002)”;但在变化幅度与发展态势上,三个区域之间差异明显。东部地区的播种面积有显著的下降态势,而中部与西部地区在1999年以前,其总的态势是播种面积有所扩大,此后播种面积明显下降,但其下降幅度小于东部地区;④ 中部地区耕地撂荒案例最多,涉及地域最广,东部地区次之,西部地区相对较少;东部地区的耕地撂荒现象主要出现在1992~1995年,而中部地区高度集中在1998~2002年,西部地区耕地撂荒的时间分布较为均匀,没有高度集中出现的特点。