An approach to quantitative analysis of regional economic links

Aimed at promoting regional coalitions and expanding the approach to economic links, this paper puts forward some new concepts such as link intensity and receiving coefficient, expounds the indexes of quantitative analysis of economic links and establishes the quantitative-analysis model of economic links. With help of the model, this paper calculates the values of the link intensities between Su-Xi-Chang (Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou) region and Shanghai, and analyzes the regional difference of the economic links.     

成都市冬季重污染日气象条件成因分析及预报

本文通过对成都10个重污染日进行天气学分析,将污染浓度与气象要素进行聚类、研究了重污染日形成原因及污染浓度与气象要素的关系。在此基础上,建立了SO_2、TSP日平均浓度分级预报方程。     

An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.     

钱二块铀矿床采铀注液结垢趋势的理论分析与预测

用离子系数矩阵法对钱二块铀矿床地浸采铀试验注液中存在的独立离子反应进行了确定,由溶度积规则及反应平衡原理,借助Matlab编程,估算出了钱二块铀矿床地浸采铀试验注液可能会生成的沉淀物种类及数量,为防治结垢提供了一定的理论依据.     

基于AGA的SVM需水预测模型研究

需水预测是一个由城市人口、工业水平、社会经济水平共同作用的多因素、多层次的复杂非线性系统.其结果将直接影响受区域水资源承载力约束的产业结构、布局形态等决策.作为一种集中参数预报方法,支持向量机方法具有对未来样本的较好的泛化性能,对于这类资料缺乏、系统结构尚欠清晰的问题可以取得较好的模拟和预测结果.基于此,本文将支持向量机方法引入需水预测领域,建立了需水预测支持向量机模型.同时,本文将加速遗传算法和支持向量机方法耦合起来,构造了支持向量机模型参数的自适应优化算法.模型在珠海市的应用实例表明:与简单遗传算法比较,AGA的模型参数寻优效率更高;与BP神经网络模型相比,SVM模型较好地解决了小样本、经验性等问题,并取得了较高的预测精度.     

西部大开发与中国经济发展

在对中国西部的区域划分进行界定并阐述中国西部区域特征的基础上,对中国西部的开发进行了历史回顾,并对中国西部开发的历史背景和现实基础、中国西部开发的优势和制约条件进行分析,最后提出了中国西部开发的发展战略和政策措施.     

东海区近海强风预报模式

本文探讨东海区近海强风预报模式，首先介绍建立预报模式的思路和步骤，及使用说明，为了验证强风预报模式和判别条件，用１９８６、１９８７上日本传真天气图进行试报，准确和基本准确度为９１．１％，并给出了１９８９、１９９５年随船试验预报结果，准确和基本准确率为９０％以上。     

开展我国海洋区域地质调查势在必行

本文概述了建国以来我国海洋地质调查与研究工作取得的丰硕成果。论述区域地质调查在海洋地质基础工作和未来海洋开发中的战略意义,介绍了国内外海洋区域地质调查的现状,对开展这项调查的可行性条件,以及进行1/100万海洋区域地质调查的项目内容、技术方法和提交成果等提出了设想和建议。     

A climatology of mesoscale model simulated low-level wind jets over Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait, Alaska

Weather in the North Gulf of Alaska is characterized by a high frequency of deep synoptic-scale low-pressure systems, especially during the cold season. The strong pressure gradients of these storms interact with the extremely rugged terrain of the coastal mountains to produce a variety of channeled flows. These surface wind regimes are not well documented in the scientific community, due to the paucity of observations. Modeling of these phenomena in regions of complex terrain is of great interest to those working with hydrodynamic, wave, and pollutant transport models in coastal and shelf areas. Such models, when coupled with ocean and coastal-ecology counterparts, give a broad view of the role surface winds play in shaping local coastal marine ecosystem in this region. This paper presents a climatology of simulated low-level wind jets over the domain of Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait along Alaska's south-central coast. Daily simulations using the RAMS model were conducted in a 36-h forecast mode for the cold-season period 10/1/03 to 3/31/04. Systematic analysis of the resulting simulated low-level wind field makes it possible to characterize these jets and gap flows in spatial and temporal detail. The comparison between the RAMS winds and the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)-derived winds when available verifies the existence of these wind jets and the capability of the model to simulate these cases. Clearly, the results of a study in this region depend on the fidelity of the model at these scales (O[5 km]). The SAR comparisons attempt to help establish this. From the 6 months of simulations over Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait, the low-level wind jets are classified into 10 different regimes by location and orientation. These regimes are categorized into four more general groups: cross-channel westerly, easterly, and up and down Inlet flows. The nature of a particular regime is largely a function of pressure gradient orientation and local topography. Jets in the same group have a similar occurrence distribution with time. Some form of jet occurred in the study region almost daily each month of the period, with December 2003 having the highest frequency of wind jets.     

浙北地区旱涝预报问题探讨—一种汛期降水量长期预报方法

本文分析了当地前期气象要素——温度的演变特点与汛期降水量之间的关系,建立了两者之间的回归方程,并由此作出降水量的长期预报,从预报误差和试报结果看,效果是好的。