日本国内旅游业的发展及其地域特征

日本旅游业已成为国民经济的重要部门，据2002年日本交通省的统计表明，观光产业GDP已占国内生产总值的2．2％，这一数字与美国相近。但与西方国家显著不同的是，在美、英、法、意等旅游业发达国家中，国际旅游业占据举足轻重地位，而日本的旅游业却以国内旅游为主体。据日本最大旅行社JTB的统计，2002年日本旅游出行人数为34013万人次(其中出国旅游1664万人次)，而同年日本接待的外国入境游客刚刚超过500万人次。本文旨在介绍和分析日本国内旅游业的发生、发展的变化特征，以及国民不同的旅游方式和旅游地域差异。     

建筑物沉降规律的综合时序分析

建筑物的沉降监测数据序列具有趋势变化和随机变化的特点，本文针对两种变化项的特点分别建立相应的数学模型，再将其组合起来建立综合数学模型，从总体上把握沉降数据序列的变化规律。实例计算分析表明，此方法具有较高的拟合精度和预测能力，具有一定的应用参考价值。     

Study on simulating strong ground motion by fractal stochastic method

The time history of strong ground motion can be synthesized by empirical Green's function (EGF) method.Firstly a large seismic event is discretized into a series of subevents; secondly recordings of earthquakes with proper size and spatial distribution are chosen as time history (EGF) of those subevents; finally the EGFs are summated to get the time history of ground motion caused by the large event.     

Ground deformation of Nisyros Volcano (Greece) for the period 1995–2002: Results from DInSAR and DGPS observations

Differential GPS (DGPS) and Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) analyses were applied to the Kos-Yali-Nisyros Volcanic Field (SE Hellenic Volcanic Arc) to quantify the ground deformation of Nisyros Volcano. After intense seismic activity in 1996, a GPS network was installed in June 1997 and re-occupied annually up to 2002. A general uplift ranging from 14 to 140 mm was determined at all stations of the network. The corresponding horizontal displacements ranged from 13 to 53 mm. The displacement vectors indicate that the island is undergoing extension towards the East, West and South. A two-source “Mogi” model combined with assumed motion along the Mandraki Fault was constructed to fit the observed deformation. The best-fit model assumes sources at a depth of 5500 m NW of the centre of the island and at 6500 m offshore ESE of Yali Island. DInSAR analysis using four pairs of images taken between May 1995 and September 2000 suggests that deformation was occurring during 1995 before the start of the seismic crisis. An amplitude of at least 56 mm along the slant range appeared for the period 1996 through 1999. This deformation is consistent with the two-source model invoked in DGPS modelling. Surface evidence of ground deformation is expressed in the contemporaneous reactivation of the Mandraki Fault. In addition, a 600 m long N-S trending irregular rupture in the caldera floor was formed between 2001 and 2002. This rupture is interpreted as the release of surface stress in the consolidated epiclastic and hydrothermal sediments of the caldera floor.     

Delayed geochemical hazard: Concept, digital model and case study

Delayed Geochemical Hazard (DGH briefly) presents the whole process of a kind of serious ecological and environmental hazard caused by sudden reactivation and sharp release of long-term accumulated pollutant from stable species to active ones in soil or sediment system due to the change of physical-chemical conditions (such as temperature, pH, Eh, moisture, the concentrations of organic matters, etc.) or the decrease of environment capacity. The characteristics of DGH are discussed. The process of a typical DGH can be expressed as a nonlinear polynomial. The points where the derivative functions of the first and second orders of the polynomial reach zero, minimum and maximum are keys for risk assessment and harzard pridication.The process and mechanism of the hazard is due to the transform of pollutant among different species principally. The concepts of "total releasable content of pollutant", TRCP, and "total concentration of active specie", TCAS, are necessarily defined to describe the mechanism of DGH. The possibility of the temporal and spatial propagation is discussed. Case study shows that there exists a transform mechanism of "gradual release" and "chain reaction" among the species of the exchangeable and the bounds to carbonate, iron and manganese oxides and organic matter, thus causing the delayed geochemical hazard.     

Use of fallout 137Cs for documenting the chronology of overbank sediments from the river Sava, Croatia, and interpreting their geochemical patterns

This paper attempts to determine the impact of former Pb-Zn-Ba mining activities in Slovenian drainage basin on overbank sediments of the Sava river (West Croatia). Among the four studied sequences (S7, S8, S9, S10), the most upstream profile S7 showed the most pronounced impact of ore mining. Mercury was enriched more than 100-fold; Pb and Zn had a strong positive correlation (r > 0.99). Two factor models clearly revealed the Pb-Ba-Hg association in the lower-lying carbonate (CA) population of all four profiles, but only in the overlying silicate (SI) population of profile S7. Factor analysis confirmed this association in the total sediment (90 samples) as well as separately in the CA (33 samples) and SI (57 samples) populations. Based on a comparison with an undisturbed soil profile, the vertical distribution of ¹³⁷Cs in profile S7 was interpreted to be the combination of caesium deposition caused by a flood in 1964 and by post-depositional redistribution.     

Development of an integrated conceptual model for the rational management of the transboundary Nestos River, Greece

This paper provides a detailed analysis of the geologic, hydrologic and hydrogeologic characteristics of Nestos River basin, which is formed within the Greek mountainous part of the river. The quantitative analysis was mainly based on the data of the river flow in different gauging points across the rivercourse as well as on the data of groundwater discharge from karst springs of the mountainous area while important conclusions were made regarding the hydraulic connection between the surface waters of the river and the groundwater of the karst aquifers of the basin. The qualitative analysis has shown that the quality of both surface waters and groundwaters of the investigated basin is high, whereas, no sources of contamination were indicated during this research. The possible effects of the two large dams of Platanovrisi and Thesavros are also analysed as they strongly affect the quantitative and qualitative regime of the river delta.     

空间运动对象与时空数据类型研究

当前时空数据模型多以描述空间实体的离散变化为主。该文中对空间运动对象在抽象层次的无限连续空间、离散层次的有限离散空间上的数据类型进行分析和定义，将其分别划分为时间类型、空间类型和时态类型来研究，并提出支持空间运动对象的表示方法和操作方式。该方法既能表示空间实体的连续运动，也能表示其离散变化，为空间运动对象时空数据模型的建立奠定了基础。     

能见度集合预报及后处理技术应用

基于污染物情况、环流系统和时空分布特征分析,利用神经网络对历史数据进行建模,生成了能见度集合预报产品。在2022年冬季的TS评分检验中,预报产品优于欧洲中期数值预报中心模式(ECMWF)的能见度预报产品。利用概率匹配、最优百分位和神经网络三种后处理方法生成后处理产品,这些产品的TS评分优于集合预报产品。预报输入的ECMWF模式2 m湿度与实况的偏差是误差的主要来源。利用集成方法对三种后处理产品进行集成,其TS评分结果在低能见度区间总体接近或略优于原始产品。生成的能见度集合预报后处理最优集成预报产品成功提高了对中期延伸期能见度天气的预测准确性。