黑龙江省作物生长动态模式预测产量的方法及应用

在分析作物干物质累积曲线的基础上，分析温度、降水等气候因子与作物干物质累积量的关系，而干物质累积量又与气候产量有着直接的关系。因此，在干物质累积模型的基础上，建立作物生长动态模式，该模式主要用于四大主栽作物玉米、大豆、水稻及小麦的产量预测。利用模式预测了2001～2002年黑龙江省四大作物的单产，其精确度在94％左右。     

广西中尺度数值模式格点产品检验系统

根据WM O规定的数值预报标准化检验方案开发的数值预报格点产品检验系统,可以实时检验广西中尺度数值预报产品及9210下发的多种数值产品,可为数值模式的改进及数值产品的业务化应用提供直接的参考依据。     

基于陆面模式基准平台ILAMB对陆面模式CoLM的评估

模式评估是模式发展中不可或缺的重要一环。本文利用最新版陆面模式评估软件—ILAMB（International Land Model Benchmarking）对通用陆面模式 (The Common Land Model, CoLM)进行客观评估,并与NCAR陆面模式CLM5(Community Land Model version 5)结果进行比较。作为一个陆面模式评估软件,ILAMB能对参与评估的模式变量自动生成诊断图形并对模式性能进行评分。评估结果表明,CoLM总体性能良好,模拟结果与基准数据较为接近。与CLM5相比,CoLM在总初级生产力及水文方面的表现略微逊色,在辐射方面则表现相当,对部分变量如地表向上长波辐射、地表净辐射等的模拟甚至优于CLM5。通过对比CRUNCEPv7和GSWP3v1两种强迫资料发现,它们在气候平均态上具有一定的差异,模式在GSWP3v1强迫下的表现相对较好。CoLM和CLM5在CRUCNEPv7强迫下模拟的潜热通量在亚马逊平原、亚洲东部和南部地区以及北美东部一带正偏差显著,而在GSWP3v1强迫下的模拟则有明显改善。这两个模式对感热通量的模拟在非洲北部、亚洲中部一带均明显偏高。在辐射方面,CoLM模拟的地表向上短波辐射在全球以偏高为主,这在一定程度上造成了地表净辐射的模拟偏低。各组试验模拟的地表向上长波辐射得分相差不大,但在具体的空间分布上有一定的差别。     

Implementation of a Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Model in the Mediterranean Sea: Sensitivity of the Short Time Scale Evolution to the Air-Sea Coupling Mechanisms

In this study a coupled regional atmosphere-wave-ocean model has been implemented in the Mediterranean Sea and applied to the simulation of the atmospheric circulation and of the upper ocean structure on the short time scale range typical of regional meteorological predictions. The coupling accounts for the feedback of the upper ocean on the atmospheric circulation, that is for the variation of the SST (Sea Surface Temperature) during the development of the cyclones and for the dependence of the SSR (Sea Surface Roughness) on the wind-wave spectrum. The model can operate also in uncoupled mode, with prescribed SST and SSR computed using the Charnock formula (depending on wind speed only). Six case-studies, characterized by strong cyclones and intense air-sea interaction, have been analyzed. A sensitivity analysis is carried out by comparing uncoupled and coupled simulations, carried out including the SST and SSR-feedbacks both separately and simultaneously. The feedbacks have systematic effects on the atmospheric precipitation, on heat and momentum fluxes, and, consequently, on MLD (Mixed Layer Depth), SST, and SWH (Significant Wave Height). For all these quantities, except for SWH, the two feedbacks act in opposite directions. The effect of the SST feedback is larger on latent heat flux, precipitation, sea surface cooling, and, marginally, on mixed layer growth and it determines their reduction when the two feedbacks act simultaneously. The SSR and SST-feedbacks have comparable effect on the SWH field and they both contribute to the SWH reduction. Though the SLP (Sea Level Pressure) and Geopotential minima of single "fall" case-studies can be appreciably modified by the inclusion of the feedbacks, no systematic effect has been identified in these fields, presumably because of the intrinsic unpredictability of the atmospheric circulation.     

河南省暴雪天气特征及预报模型

普查了１９５１～１９９８年冬季河南省降雪资料,确定了河南省区域性暴雪过程,建立了河南省区域性暴雪过程历史资料库,分析了６０年代以来我省暴雪的时空分布特征及其天气形势特征,建立了预报模型,并提出了预报着眼点。     

CCM3模式中LSM积雪方案的改进研究(Ⅰ):修改方案介绍及其单点试验

为了改进美国NCARCCM3全球模式中LSM陆面模型中的积雪方案的模拟效果,在Sun等[1]SAST积雪模型的基础上,作了部分修改后,加进CCM3模式LSM模型中.该方案根据格点区域平均积雪深度的不同,把地面雪盖划分为1到3层不等,能在积雪表层和中间层更好地描述温度的日变化和季节变化;较详细地考虑了雪的热传导、太阳辐射的穿透吸收、雪的融化、液态水的储存、渗透和再冻结等积雪内部的主要物理过程;根据Nimbus-7卫星实测雪深资料修改了积雪覆盖度和雪面反照率的计算方案.利用前苏联6个台站1978-1983年的实测积雪资料和大气强迫数据,进行了单点模拟试验,结果表明,新的积雪参数化方案能够较好地再现积雪深度和雪水当量的逐日和季节变化特征,部分提高了积雪参数化方案对积雪的模拟能力.     

利用高光谱数据对作物群体叶绿素密度估算的研究

叶绿素是农作物生长中重要的因素。叶绿素含量既表明作物生长的状况,又表征了作生的生产能力。而叶绿素密度（单位面积农作物的叶绿绿素含量）是估计农作物群体生产力的重要指标。对早播稻、晚播稻和玉米的多时相的群体光谱测量数据和相应的叶片叶绿素密度的测量数进行了相关分析,结果表明早播、晚播稻和玉米的群体光谱的反射率数据以及其导数光谱数据绿素密度具有委好多的相关性,并且可以对这几种农作物建立统一的线性回归关系。     

不同供氮水平下水稻高光谱及其红边特征研究

通过大田和室内试验 ,测定了 3个供氮水平下 2个品种的水稻冠层、主茎叶片在不同发育期的高光谱反射率及对应的叶绿素、类胡萝卜素含量。结果表明 :不同供氮水平的水稻冠层和叶片光谱差异明显 ,其光谱反射率随供氮水平的提高在可见光范围降低 ,在近红外区域增高 ;拔节期和孕穗期主茎倒三叶反射率在可见光和近红外区域均高于倒一叶 ;冠层光谱红边位置λred、红边幅值Dλred和红边面积Sred孕穗前呈“红移” ,抽穗后呈“蓝移”现象 ;叶面积指数LAI、地上鲜生物量AFM、地上干生物量ADM和鲜叶重FLM与冠层光谱变量R12 0 0 /R550 ,R990 /R550 ,R80 0 /R550 ,R750 /R550 ,λred,Sred之间有极显著相关 ,冠层和叶片色素含量与其光谱变量R80 0 /R550 和λred之间也存在显著相关。这说明用合适的高光谱变量来估算水稻LAI,AFM ,ADM ,FLM和冠层、叶片的色素含量     

BDA方案对台风背景高温天气预报的改进

广州地Ⅸ的高温天气主要是受副热带高压和台风外围下沉气流的影响所致.文中采用BDA(Bogus Data Assimila-tion)方法,探讨BDA方案对广州地区台风背景条件下高温预报的改进能力.选取2005年7月中旬广州地区出现的高温天气进行研究.这是比较典型的受副热带高压和台风(海棠)共同影响造成高温的天气过程.分析有无采用BDA方案的模式初始场.结果表明:采用BDA方案同化Bogus模型可以调整台风中心位置和强度,使所得到的初始场中心位置与观测更为接近,台风强度(气压梯度力、风速)比末用Bogus的情况强,与观测值更为接近.数值模拟的结果表明,采用了BDA方案的敏感试验可以更好地预撤台风路径和台风中心强度变化,从而更好地预报高温天气,对高温区分布、日平均温度大小等的预报都有改进.文中对引起这种预报差异的原因进行了讨论,并探讨高温预报改进的可能机制.大气下沉运动的增强是高温预报改进的主要原因.敏感试验由于广州中低层大气的水汽减少,大气的下沉增强,致使天空的云量减少,对太阳短波辐射的阻挡减小,从而地面吸收热量增多,温度升高,输送给大气的感热增加,大气气温升高.采用BDA方案可以改进模式在台风"海棠"过程对广州高温的预报.     

Profiles and Source Apportionment of Nonmethane Volatile Organic Compounds in Winter and Summer in Xi’an,China, based on the Hybrid Environmental Receptor Model

Summer and winter campaigns for the chemical compositions and sources of nonmethane hydrocarbons(NMHCs)and oxygenated volatile organic compounds(OVOCs)were conducted in Xi’an.Data from 57 photochemical assessment monitoring stations for NMHCs and 20 OVOC species were analyzed.Significant seasonal differences were noted for total VOC(TVOC,NMHCs and OVOCs)concentrations and compositions.The campaign-average TVOC concentrations in winter(85.3±60.6 ppbv)were almost twice those in summer(47.2±31.6 ppbv).Alkanes and OVOCs were the most abundant category in winter and summer,respectively.NMHCs,but not OVOCs,had significantly higher levels on weekends than on weekdays.Total ozone formation potential was higher in summer than in winter(by 50%)because of the high concentrations of alkenes(particularly isoprene),high temperature,and high solar radiation levels in summer.The Hybrid Environmental Receptor Model(HERM)was used to conduct source apportionment for atmospheric TVOCs in winter and summer,with excellent accuracy.HERM demonstrated its suitability in a situation where only partial source profile data were available.The HERM results indicated significantly different seasonal source contributions to TVOCs in Xi’an.In particular,coal and biomass burning had contributions greater than half in winter(53.4%),whereas traffic sources were prevalent in summer(53.1%).This study’s results highlight the need for targeted and adjustable VOC control measures that account for seasonal differences in Xi’an;such measures should target not only the severe problem with VOC pollution but also the problem of consequent secondary pollution(e.g.,from ozone and secondary organic aerosols).