Emplacement mechanism of gravity flows inferred from high resolution Lidar data: The 1944 Somma–Vesuvius lava flow (Italy)

A Digital Terrain Model derived from high resolution Lidar data allows the determination of the morphometric and physical parameters of a lava flow erupted from the Somma–Vesuvius volcano in 1944. The downstream variation of morphometric parameters including slope, aspect, relative relief, thickness, width, and cross sectional area is analyzed, and the changes in viscosity, velocity and flow rate are estimated. The aims of the analyses are to recognize different flow surfaces, to reconstruct the flow kinematics, and to obtain information on the mechanism of emplacement. The results indicate that the 1944 lava flow can be divided in three sectors: a near vent sector (NVS) characterized by a toe-like surface, an intermediate sector (IS) with an ‘a’ātype brittle surface, and a distal sector (DS) with a sheet-like ductile surface. Lateral leveés and channels do not occur in NVS, whereas they are well developed in IS. In DS, leveés increase with an increasing distance from the vent. Fold-like surfaces occur in NVS and DS, reflecting local shortening processes due to a decrease in the slope of the substratum and overflows from the main channel. IS and DS emplaced between March 18 and 21, 1944, whereas NVS emplaced on March 19 and partly covered IS. The morphometric and physical parameters indicate that IS moved in a ‘tube’-like regime, whereas DS emplaced in a 'mobile crust' regime. The IS to DS transition is marked by an increase in velocity and the flow rate, and by a decrease in thickness, width, cross sectional area, and viscosity. This transition is due to an abrupt increase in the slope of the substratum. The estimated velocity values are in good agreement with the measurements during the 1944 eruption. The analysis used here may be extended to other lava flows. Some gravity flows (debris/mud flows, floods, and avalanches) have rheological properties and shapes similar to those of lavas, and the same process-form relationships may apply to these flows. The approach used here may be therefore useful for evaluating hazards from various gravity currents.     

CMIP5耦合模式对欧亚大陆冬季雪水当量的模拟及预估

基于美国冰雪资料中心(NSIDC)提供的卫星遥感雪水当量资料,评估了26个CMIP5(Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project)耦合模式对1981~2005年欧亚大陆冬季雪水当量的模拟能力,在此基础上应用多模式集合平均结果,预估了21世纪欧亚大陆雪水当量的变化情况。结果表明,CMIP5耦合模式对欧亚大陆冬季雪水当量空间分布具有一定的模拟能力,能够再现出欧亚大陆冬季雪水当量由南向北递增、青藏高原积雪多于同纬度其他地区的特征;就雪水当量的幅值而言,几乎所有模式均显著低估了西伯利亚中部雪水当量的大值中心,对中国东北地区雪水当量的模拟也显著偏低,但模式对乌拉尔山以西的东欧平原、我国北方及蒙古地区冬季雪水当量的模拟却比卫星遥感资料显著偏大,此外模式对堪察加半岛及以北的西伯利亚东北部地区的雪水当量也明显偏大。对于青藏高原地区,虽然部分模式可以模拟出青藏高原东部的雪水当量大值区,但大多数模式对青藏高原西部雪水当量的模拟却明显偏大,存在虚假的大值中心。对遥感反演资料的EOF(Empirical Orthogonal Function)分解表明,对于EOF第一个模态所对应欧亚大陆全区一致的年代际变化特征,仅有少数模式具有一定的模拟能力,大多数模式以及多模式集合的结果均未能予以反映;对应于欧亚大陆雪水当量年际变化的EOF第二模态而言,仅有少数模式(如俄罗斯的INMCM4)具有一定的再现能力,绝大多数模式对该模态及其时间演变的特征没有模拟能力。比较CMIP5多模式的集合预估结果与1981~2005年基准时段的雪水当量,可以发现在RCP4.5排放情景下,西伯利亚中东部地区的雪水当量相对于基准时段显著增加,区域平均的增加量在21世纪前、中、后期分别为4.1mm、5.4 mm和6.8 mm,且随时间增加得更显著;对90°E以西的欧洲大陆和青藏高原地区,其雪水当量则相对减少,减少的幅度和显著性也随时间而增大。就雪水当量的相对变化而言,在欧亚大陆东北部存在雪水当量相对变化的大值区,在21世纪后期相对变化显著区大都在5%~10%;但在青藏高原、斯堪的纳维亚半岛进和东欧平原,并没有发现雪水当量相对变化的髙值区,这是由于这些区域冬季雪水当量的幅值较大的缘故。RCP8.5情景下欧亚大陆雪水当量的变化特征与RCP4.5相类似,只是变化的幅度更大。     

北京市城六区2018年空气质量数值预报效果评估

为更好地改进提高模式预报性能,评估了新一代WRF-CMAQ（Weather Research and Forecasting model-Community Multi-scale Air Quality model）模式系统的不同网格分辨率预报产品对2018年北京市城六区空气质量预报结果的影响。分析表明:（1）基于首要污染物为PM2.5的预报数据集,模式系统1 km网格分辨率（BJ01）和3 km网格分辨率（BJ03）等级准确率优于官方预报结果,模式系统BJ01和BJ03区域4天内预报等级准确率均达到50%以上,24 h内准确率达60%以上,官方预报24 h内等级准确率为59%。本文引入预报综合评分法,基于IAQI（Individual Air Quality Index）和等级级别正确性双因素的预报综合评分结果显示,模式系统BJ03得分75.0分最高,BJ01次之,优于官方预报结果,模式9 km网格分辨率（BJ09）得分69.1分最低。（2）基于模式系统2018年长时间序列预报结果分析表明:模式系统预报的PM2.5浓度与实测的变化趋势较为一致,其中模式系统BJ03结果与实测PM2.5浓度相关系数达0.76,覆盖区域较大的BJ03和BJ09对PM2.5浓度峰值模拟较好。中重度污染过程的PM2.5浓度峰值模式预测误差表明,不同分辨率模式预报峰值误差的变化趋势基本一致,覆盖区域更大的粗分辨率模式预报结果高于覆盖区域小的细分辨率模式预报结果。与预报综合评分结果一致,统计分析结果也表明BJ03区域预报效果最好,平均偏差为0.83 μg/m3;而BJ01区域预报整体偏低,BJ09区域预报整体偏高。（3）基于不同网格分辨率预报效果的空间差异性分析表明:同一站点在不同分辨率上表现不一致,BJ01区域中农展馆站表现最好,BJ03区域中万柳站表现最好,BJ09区域中东四站表现最好。     

邓肯-张E-B模型参数对软土路堤沉降计算结果的影响

有限单元法是计算路堤沉降常见的数值计算方法,其土体模型参数的准确性是计算结果可靠性高的保证。邓肯-张E-B模型是岩土工程分析计算中常用的一种非线性弹性模型。本文针对模型参数敏感性进行大量非线性有限元计算,得到了各参数与路堤沉降和侧向位移之间的关系,确定了该模型中影响软基路堤沉降和侧向变形的主要参数。     

Simulated Heat Content Variability in the Upper Layers of the Tropical Indian Ocean

Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) simulations from 1970–2007 are used to study the upper ocean heat content variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). Model computed heat contents up to 50 m (denoted by HC50 m hereafter) representing upper ocean heat content and 300 m (HC300 m) representing heat content up to thermocline depth are first compared with heat contents computed from observations of two buoys in the TIO. It is found that there is good agreement between the model and observations. Fourier analysis of heat content is carried out in different regions of TIO. The amplitudes of semi-annual variability for HC50 m and HC300 m are observed to be greater than those for the annual variability in the Bay of Bengal, while in the Arabian Sea there is a mixed result. Heat content tendency is known to be governed by net surface heat flux and horizontal as well as vertical heat transports. For understanding the relative importance of these processes, a detailed analysis of these terms in the tendency equation is carried out. Rossby wave is observed in the annual mode of heat transport while equatorial jet and Kelvin waves are observed in the semi-annual mode of heart transport. Finally, the correlation between heat content and sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level anomaly (SLA), taken one at a time, is computed. It is found that the correlation improves significantly when both these quantities are together taken into account.     

Study the Mechanism of Surface Chlorophyll–a Variability in the Southern Tropical Indian Ocean Using an OGCM

Eleven years (1997–2007) of SeaWiFS observations and Ocean General Circulation Model sensitivity experiments are used to understand chlorophyll–a variability in the southern tropical Indian Ocean. The strong offshore Ekman transport forced by anomalous southeasterly winds are responsible for inducing higher chlorophyll-a in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. In the case of the southwest tropical Indian Ocean, Rossby waves and local upwelling are responsible for lifting the phytoplankton from deep chlorophyll maxima to the surface. Both intraseasonal dynamical response and interannual forcing are responsible for the phytoplankton blooming in the western basin, whereas the interannual forcing is mainly responsible in the east.     

Jacked model pile shafts in offshore calcareous soils

Abstract

This paper describes the results of laboratory tests carried out on model pile shafts in a variety of reconstituted calcareous sands and on silica sand. The factors influencing both the skin friction under static loading and the degradation of skin friction under cyclic loading have been investigated. The grading and crushability of the particles appears to have a significant influence on both, with less favourable performance being found for uniformly graded crushable particles. Relative density and overconsolidation ratio also have some influence.

Under cyclic loading, the amplitude of cyclic displacement and, more specifically, the cyclic slip displacement, influence the extent of cyclic degradation of skin friction.     

基于SPIHT小波的DEM自适应压缩方法研究

海量地形数据给其存储、分发和实时渲染带来了极大的挑战,因此迫切需要适合网络环境下地形可视化的数据压缩方法。该文探讨地形复杂度与DEM压缩方法的关系,研究可视化中地形复杂度的计算方法,并提出一种改进的SPIHT小波压缩方法:采用小波分解后的系数对DEM的地形复杂度进行评估,并针对地形复杂度对编码算法进行自适应调节。实验证明,这种改进的SPIHT小波压缩方法采用合适的压缩比进行DEM数据压缩,能够在满足地形可视化需要的同时提高压缩效率。     

中国旅游业发展空间差异的综合评判

从旅游收入、游客人数、旅游交通和旅游接待设施4个方面寻找评价旅游业发展空间差异的相对性指标,构建了一种中国旅游业发展空间差异的综合评判模型.评判结果表明,在31个省级行政区中,旅游业的发达程度具有从沿海向内陆、从东、南部向西、北部逐渐减弱的趋势,这与从沿海向内陆逐步对外开放的步伐以及经济发展的客观规律是一致的.研究还表明,旅游业最发达的地区是北京、上海和天津传统直辖市,这与以往认为广东省居于旅游业发展之首的结论有所不同.