黄河典型流域分布式水文过程模拟

基于水循环物理过程的分布式水文模型的研究和应用已经成为当前水文学研究的热点之一。本文应用大尺度分布式水文模型SVAT&HYCY ,选择黄河的主要支流洛河卢氏以上流域进行实例研究。根据 1990～ 1996年的资料进行的模拟结果表明 ,模型可以反映流域蒸散发的空间分布特征以及径流的形成过程。但是在模拟的径流值与实测值之间还有一些差异。这种差别一方面是因为实际径流包含了人类活动的影响 ,另一方面 ,空间插值方法是否准确反映模型的输入量 (特别是降水 )的空间分布特征也将影响模拟精度。     

Stratified aboveground forest biomass estimation by remote sensing data

Remote sensing-assisted estimates of aboveground forest biomass are essential for modeling carbon budgets. It has been suggested that estimates can be improved by building species- or strata-specific biomass models. However, few studies have attempted a systematic analysis of the benefits of such stratification, especially in combination with other factors such as sensor type, statistical prediction method and sampling design of the reference inventory data. We addressed this topic by analyzing the impact of stratifying forest data into three classes (broadleaved, coniferous and mixed forest). We compare predictive accuracy (a) between the strata (b) to a case without stratification for a set of pre-selected predictors from airborne LiDAR and hyperspectral data obtained in a managed mixed forest site in southwestern Germany. We used 5 commonly applied algorithms for biomass predictions on bootstrapped subsamples of the data to obtain cross validated RMSE and r² diagnostics. Those values were analyzed in a factorial design by an analysis of variance (ANOVA) to rank the relative importance of each factor. Selected models were used for wall-to-wall mapping of biomass estimates and their associated uncertainty. The results revealed marginal advantages for the strata-specific prediction models over the unstratified ones, which were more obvious on the wall-to-wall mapped area-based predictions. Yet further tests are necessary to establish the generality of these results. Input data type and statistical prediction method are concluded to remain the two most crucial factors for the quality of remote sensing-assisted biomass models.     

Large scale climate and rainfall seasonality in a Mediterranean Area: Insights from a non‐homogeneous Markov model applied to the Agro‐Pontino plain

In the context of climate change and variability, there is considerable interest in how large scale climate indicators influence regional precipitation occurrence and its seasonality. Seasonal and longer climate projections from coupled ocean–atmosphere models need to be downscaled to regional levels for hydrologic applications, and the identification of appropriate state variables from such models that can best inform this process is also of direct interest. Here, a Non‐Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM) for downscaling daily rainfall is developed for the Agro‐Pontino Plain, a coastal reclamation region very vulnerable to changes of hydrological cycle. The NHMM, through a set of atmospheric predictors, provides the link between large scale meteorological features and local rainfall patterns. Atmospheric data from the NCEP/NCAR archive and 56‐years record (1951–2004) of daily rainfall measurements from 7 stations in Agro‐Pontino Plain are analyzed. A number of validation tests are carried out, in order to: 1) identify the best set of atmospheric predictors to model local rainfall; 2) evaluate the model performance to capture realistically relevant rainfall attributes as the inter‐annual and seasonal variability, as well as average and extreme rainfall patterns. Validation tests show that the best set of atmospheric predictors are the following: mean sea level pressure, temperature at 1000 hPa, meridional and zonal wind at 850 hPa and precipitable water, from 20°N to 80°N of latitude and from 80°W to 60°E of longitude. Furthermore, the validation tests show that the rainfall attributes are simulated realistically and accurately. The capability of the NHMM to be used as a forecasting tool to quantify changes of rainfall patterns forced by alteration of atmospheric circulation under climate change and variability scenarios is discussed.     

Incorporating landscape features to obtain an object‐oriented landscape drainage network representing the connectivity of surface flow pathways over rural catchments

A topological representation of a rural catchment is proposed here in addition to the generally used topographic drainage network. This is an object‐oriented representation based on the identification of the inlets and outlets for surface water flow on each farmer's field (or plot) and their respective contributing areas and relationships. It represents the catchment as a set of independent plot outlet trees reaching the stream, while a given plot outlet tree represents the pattern of surface flow relationships between individual plots. In the present study, we propose to implement functions related to linear and surface elements of the landscape, such as hedges or road networks, or land use, to obtain what we call a landscape drainage network which delineates the effective contributing area to the stream, thus characterizing its topological structure. Landscape elements modify flow pathways and/or favour water infiltration, thus reducing the area contributing to the surface yield and modifying the structure of the plot outlet trees. This method is applied to a 4·4‐km² catchment area comprising 43 955 pixels and 312 plots. While the full set of 164 plot outlet trees, with an average of 7 plots per tree, covers 100% of the total surface area of the catchment, the landscape drainage network comprises no more than 37 plot outlet trees with an average of 2 plots per tree, accounting for 52 and 7% of the catchment surface area, when taking account of linear elements and land use, respectively. This topological representation can be easily adapted to changes in land use and land infrastructure, and provides a simple and functional display for intercomparison of catchments and decision support regarding landscape and water management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国东部云-降水对应关系的分析与模式评估

为评估和改进模式中不同类型云与降水的对应关系,利用1998—2007年卫星-台站融合降水资料和国际卫星云气候计划的卫星观测云资料,采用诊断方法分析了中国东部季风区冬季层云、夏季对流云、层云与降水的水平分布及季节变化对应关系,并评估了BCC_AGCM模式的T42和T106分辨率版本对云-降水对应关系的模拟能力。观测资料分析结果表明,中国东部冬季云带和雨带都稳定少动,降水主要来自雨层云和高层云,南部沿海层云和层积云也对降水有贡献;夏季,中国东部表现为层积混合云降水特征,对流云带与降水带具有较好的对应关系,并具有一致的移动特征。对流降水主要来自深对流云和卷层云,深对流云云量和降水中心完全吻合,卷层云云带则表现出比深对流云主体和降水带偏北的现象;层云降水主要来自高层云和层积云。模式评估结果表明,中、低分辨率版本的BCC_AGCM模式均模拟出了冬季层云和稳定少动的降水带、夏季深对流云、卷层云和降水带的对应关系及随季风推进的移动特征。与T42模式版本相比,T106模式版本在夏季对流云云量的模拟及其与降水带的对应关系方面有所改善,说明改进的BCC_AGCM积云对流参数化方案与高分辨率模式网格更匹配,但冬季层云云量模拟误差变大,与降水带的对应关系变差,其原因值得进一步分析研究。     

赣江流域TRMM遥感降水对地面站点观测的可替代性

多卫星遥感降水产品为无/缺资料地区的水文过程模拟提供了新的数据来源。结合地面高密度雨量站网,在中国典型暴雨区赣江流域定量评估两种TRMM降水产品(3B42V7和3B42RTV7)的精度,并通过耦合分布式水文模型CREST,探讨了水文模拟中TRMM卫星降水产品对地面观测降水的可替代性。研究表明:3B42和3B42RT与地面观测流域平均月降水相关系数达到0.9以上,偏差在5%以内,日尺度上相关性略差,偏差略有增加。同时设计2种水文模拟对比试验:情景I为静态参数,使用地面雨量站降水率定模型参数,采用卫星降雨验证模型;情景II为动态参数,采用卫星数据重新率定模型参数,再利用卫星降雨验证模型。对比结果表明:情景II中完全使用TRMM降水后模型效果明显改善,证明TRMM卫星数据在赣江流域具有替代地面站点观测的潜力,但需要重新根据卫星降雨率定模型。     

遥感影像三维可视化在新疆西昆仑区域地质调查中的应用

综合应用“3S”技术、遥感数字影像处理技术、虚拟现实等,通过遥感影像的几何校正、影像数据融合、高精度DEM生成和影像复合等技术,实现了新疆西昆仑地区遥感影像三维可视化。将遥感影像三维可视化及其影像动态分析运用于新疆西昆仑区域地质调查（1∶5万）工作,可提高地质填图效率、丰富地质填图成果     

山洪泥石流预警系统建设研究

丘陵地区植被较差,堆积物比较松散,遇有异常暴雨过程,容易形成山洪泥石流,产生自然灾害,造成人员财产损失。分析国内外有关建设最新成果,对丘陵地区开展山洪泥石流预警系统建设工作进行研究,利用现有科学技术,规划设计分析预警工作的方法、步骤、流程、结果,为丘陵地区防洪体系建设提供科学合理的建设模型。     

复杂地形对长江流域太阳总辐射的影响(英文)

Global solar radiation(GSR) is the most direct source and form of global energy, and calculation of its quantity is highly complex due to influences of local topography and terrain inter-shielding. Digital elevation model(DEM) data as a representation of the complex terrain and multiplicity condition produces a series of topographic factors(e.g. slope, aspect, etc.). Based on 1 km resolution DEM data, meteorological observations and NOAA-AVHRR remote sensing data, a distributed model for the calculation of GSR over rugged terrain within the Yangtze River Basin has been developed. The overarching model permits calculation of astronomical solar radiation for rugged topography and comprises a distributed direct solar radiation model, a distributed diffuse radiation model and a distributed terrain reflectance radiation model. Using the developed model, a quantitative simulation of the GSR space distribution and visualization has been undertaken, with results subsequently analyzed with respect to locality and terrain. Analyses suggest that GSR magnitude is seasonally affected, while the degree of influence was found to increase in concurrence with increasing altitude. Moreover, GSR magnitude exhibited clear spatial variation with respect to the dominant local aspect; GSR values associated with the sunny southern slopes were significantly greater than those associated with shaded slopes. Error analysis indicates a mean absolute error of 12.983 MJm-2 and a mean relative error of 3.608%, while the results based on a site authentication procedure display an absolute error of 22.621 MJm-2 and a relative error of 4.626%.     

Tides and Wind-Driven Circulation in the Tropical and Southern Atlantic Ocean:The BRAZCOAST System

The Brazilian coast is characterized by dif- ferent tidal regimes and distinct meteorological influ- ences. The northern part has larger tidal amplitudes and is permanently affected by trade winds and tropical distur- bances; the southern portion has smaller tidal amplitudes and is frequently influenced by extratropical cyclone ac- tivity. Besides these aspects, many features regarding current structure and behavior are also present, such as the equatorial system of currents, the subtropical gyre and the corresponding western boundary currents, and the Bra- zil-Malvinas confluence region. Within this context, ef- forts were made to develop the BRAZCOAST system, capable of describing the processes that determine the oceanic circulation from large to coastal scales. A cus- tomized version of the Princeton Ocean Model （POM） was implemented in a basin-scale domain covering the whole of the tropical and southern Atlantic Ocean, with 0.5° spatial resolution, as well as three nested grids with （1/12）° resolution covering the different parts of the Bra- zilian shelf, in a one-way procedure. POM was modified to include tidal potential generator terms and a par- tially-clamped boundary condition for tidal elevations. The coarse grid captured large-scale features, while the nested grids detailed local circulations affected by bathymetry and coastal restrictions. An interesting aspect at the coarse grid level was the relevance of the Weddell Sea to the location of the tidal amphidromic systems.