洛阳分县温度周滚动预报系统

利用洛阳9县(市)2002年11月~2004年9月逐日最高、最低气温资料,应用欧洲中心数值预报产品,建立了洛阳9个县(市)的温度周滚动预报方程。2004~2005年试报结果表明:24~48 h预报准确率在70%左右,绝对误差在2℃以内;24~144 h预报准确率在62%~70%之间,绝对误差在2℃左右;最低气温预报效果要好于最高气温,最低气温的绝对误差与准确率分别为1.98℃和67%,最高气温的绝对误差与准确率分别为2.28℃和61%。     

Species sensitivity distributions: data and model choice

Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are increasingly incorporated into ecological risk assessment procedures. Although these new techniques offer a more transparent approach to risk assessment they demand more and superior quality data. Issues of data quantity and quality are especially important for marine datasets that tend to be smaller (and have fewer standard test methods) when compared with freshwater data. An additional source of uncertainty when using SSDs is appropriate selection from the range of methods used in their construction. We show through examples the influence of data quantity, data quality, and choice of model. We then show how regulatory decisions may be affected by these factors.     

Predicting copper toxicity in estuarine and marine waters using the Biotic Ligand Model

The Biotic Ligand Model (BLM) has proven efficient in predicting the toxicity of a variety of metals to freshwater organisms. Consequently, the US EPA has proposed its use for calculating freshwater copper criteria. This study evaluates the BLM for use in estuarine and marine waters. Studies were conducted using the bivalve, Mytilus sp. and 48-h embryo-larval development chronic estimator test methods. These are the most sensitive taxa and test in the US EPA saltwater copper criteria database. Samples from five locations around the USA were tested. There is a strong relationship between measured and BLM predicted copper EC50s (log transformed data, r² = 0.76, p < 0.001, n = 44). The BLM predicted within a factor ±2 of measured EC50s in 41 of 44 cases. However, the BLM tends to predict lower EC50s when measured EC50s are approximately 10 μg Cu/L. This may be due to limitations of the metal-dissolved organic matter interaction model.     

光化学烟雾的控制试验

利用MM5与RADM的耦合模式,设计了3个削减源排放的试验,用以探讨控制光化学污染的有效途径。试验结果表明,在NMHC/NOx比值很大的前提条件下,NOx地面源排放的削减对降低大气中O3含量的作用最显著,而削减NMHC对降低大气中PAN含量的作用明显,同时削减NMHC和NOx是降低大气光化学污染强度的最佳途径。     

利用卫星云图作广西强降水短时预报

构造天气学意义明确的卫星云图状态函数模型，在对云层进行分类的基础上，定量提取卫星云图参数，通过与云图模板的相似运算寻找短时预报指标。试报结果表明，这种方法对提高强降雨落区的短时预报准确率是可行的。     

造山带岩石圈化学结构平面图的编制——以秦岭—大别造山带为例

国内外岩石圈化学组成的编图研究还处于探索阶段。笔者从岩石圈化学结构的思路出发 ,提出了编图的 3个地球化学指标 (铅同位素组成、T2DM 和同位素年代学 )和表示方法。以秦岭—大别造山带为例 ,同位素组成图可以反映构造分区和地壳生长历史 ,对造山过程和深部壳幔相互作用也有明确的显示 ;结合地质年代学的资料 ,化学结构平面图具有反映时空演化四维信息的能力。     

基于重力模型的中国城市体系空间联系与层域划分

新中国成立以来,中国大陆城市体系空间格局发生了深刻的变化。传统的城市体系空间联系主要从人流、物流、技术流、信息流、金融流进行数据的收集和分析,也有运用图论原理进行Rd链分析。近来,随着社会主义市场经济的迅速发展,城市之间的联系变得异常复杂、数据不易得到。本文试图运用重力模型方法对中国城市间的空间联系强度进行定量计算,据此刻画中国城市体系的空间联系状态和结节区结构。从研究结果看,所得结论与实际情况基本吻合。     

异龙湖流域湿地生态系统健康评价

湿地生态系统健康状况评价为湿地资源的合理开发、生态系统的维护提供了重要的借鉴。在充分了解异龙湖流域湿地资源环境的基础上,结合湖泊湿地生态系统的概念及内涵,采用PSR(压力-状态-响应)框架模型和生态系统健康指数计算方法对研究区湿地生态系统健康状况进行评价。结果表明:(1)异龙湖流域湿地生态系统健康评价综合分值(Y)为2.8494,处于[2,3]之间,属于脆弱状态;(2)从三大指标状况来看,压力指标(P)、状态指标(S)和响应指标(R)在评价等级中的得分及表现情况分别为0.7368(脆弱状态)、1.1620(亚健康状态)和0.9506(亚健康状态);(3)人口密度、人类活动强度、单位面积化肥和农药负荷、水土流失强度、湖泊水富营养化、人们的环保意识等指标是影响流域内湿地生态系统健康状况的关键因素,人为因素占主导地位。     

Progress and prospect of research on forest landscape model

The Forest Landscape Model (FLM) is an efficiency tool of quantified expression of forest ecosystem''s structure and function. This paper, on the basis of identifying FLM, according to the stage of development, summarizes the development characteristics of the model, which includes the theoretical foundation of mathematical model, FLM of stand-scale, primary development of spatial landscape model, rapid development of ecosystem process model as the priority, and developing period of structure and process driven by multi-factor. According to the characteristics of different FLMs, this paper classifies the existing FLM in terms of mechanism, property and application, and elaborates the identifications, advantages and disadvantages of different types of models. It summarizes and evaluates the main application fields of existing models from two aspects which are the changes of spatial pattern and ecological process. Eventually, this paper presents FLM''s challenges and directions of development in the future, including: (1) more prominent service on the practical strategy of forest management''s objectives; (2) construction of multi-modules and multi-plugin to satisfy landscape research demand in various conditions; (3) adoption of high resolution''s spatial-temporal data; (4) structural construction of multi-version module; (5) improving the spatial suitability of model application.     

区域地理环境因素对中国流感发病的影响分析

为研究中国流感发病率的时空分布规律及区域地理环境因素对流感发病的影响,通过统计分析得到中国流感发病的时间规律以及运用空间自相关分析法得到中国流感发病的空间分布特点;应用地理探测器模型、Spearman相关分析得到与流感发病相关的区域地理环境因素;根据各区域地理环境因素和流感发病率所构建的GWR模型,得到局部回归系数在中国范围内的分布特征。结果显示：以12月、1月为代表的冬季和以3月为代表的春季在同年表现出流感高发的特征。夏季流感高发的地区集中在华南、华中地区,冬季则集中在华北、西北地区。降水量对流感的发病率影响呈现出较为明显的区域特征。中国的高纬度地区,平均气温与流感的发病率呈现负相关;低纬度地区,呈现正相关。日照时数对流感发病的影响在总体上表现为负相关。平均相对湿度与流感发病率的关系在中国的西北部地区表现为明显的负相关,而在东南部地区表现为明显正相关。