Geographical analysis of river floods and their causes in southern East Siberia

Abstract

On the basis of analysing the genesis, recurrence and severity of flood hazards, a regional flood hazard analysis of the southern area of East Siberia has been carried out. The greatest flood hazard corresponds to the relatively densely populated area of southern East Siberia: the Upper Yenisei, Angara and Upper Lena river basins and the Lake Baikal watershed. Typically, the most hazardous floods include those caused by surges produced by damage to the dams of the Angara—Yenisei hydropower cascade; flash floods are also an extreme hazard. Maximum runoff factors were used to delineate regions within the study area, and the hazard severity was scored for the Irkutsk region. An inventory of the ice-dam and ice-jam areas, as well as of the streamflow sites with maximum runoff of different origins predominating in the Angara and Lena river basins, showed that the study area includes 78 and 19 ice-dam and ice-jam locations, respectively. A high recurrence of ice dams and ice jams is also observed on other rivers.     

Characterization of ground motions using recurrence plots

The current analysis of earthquakes is typically based on linear mathematical models that may fail to describe and forecast particular behaviors, because in many cases the data complexity may induce a highly non linear behavior. In this paper the implementation of an alternative method for seismic time series analysis is presented. The RPs (Recurrence Plots) enables recognition and treatment of measured accelerations. An RP obtained from seismic data allows a more efficient interpretation of the ground motions and this explanation contributes to characterize materials and responses. The nonlinear attributes from RPs analysis can be used as filters to reveal patterns or be combined to predict a seismic property. Automated seismic data characterization, based on nonlinear seismic attributes, could rewrite the rules of earthquake phenomena interpretation. The objective of this work is to establish a new methodology for practical application of nonlinear dynamics in seismic pattern/attributes recognition, an evolving and challenging engineering field.     

青藏高原东北缘热水-日月山断裂带热水段古地震初步研究

通过遥感影像解译和详细的野外填图,获得了热水-日月山断裂带热水断裂段的断错地貌,其水系右旋断错量为140～940m.沿断裂带的探槽开挖,揭示距今9645±220 a B.P,热水段曾发生一次古地震事件;结合前人的研究结果,认为热水-日月山断裂带热水断裂段上古地震复发间隔约3365 a,全新世以来的倾滑速率为0.03 mm/a.热水-日月山断裂带上已揭露出3次古地震事件,分别为9865±40 a B.P～9425±35 aB.P,6280±120 a B.P和2220±360 a B.P,复发间隔为3500 a左右,由于该断裂段最近一次古地震事件距今已接近2220年,与其复发间隔3365 a年相比尚有一段时间,但考虑到古地震事件的不确定性和年代样品的误差,初步推断热水-日月山断裂带热水段的地震危险性不大,但不排除有中强地震的可能性.     

天津地区隐伏断裂地震危险性定量评价

以天津市活断裂探测资料为基础,通过对天津断裂的地质构造、第四纪活动性,深部构造、构造应力场与形变场及地震活动性等的研究,综合判定了天津北、天津南断裂的活动性与构造特征;利用地震地质、历史与现今地震活动性资料,建立了按500a归算的震级-频度关系模型,拟合了天津地区的最大震级上限Mmu与at/b的关系,用于对区内各断层小区中-弱隐伏活动断层潜在地震最大震级的评估。采用泊松概率模型,估算出天津南断裂未来50～200a发生地震的最大震级、发生概率及复发周期等定量参数     

Prediction of China＇s Submerged Coastal Areas by Sea Level Rise due to Climate Change

Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the green- house gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2 （IPCC, 2001）, and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data, the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21 st century. Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year retum period. The total flooding areas are 98.3× 10^3 and 104.9× 10^3 km2 for 2050 and 2080, respectively. For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise, i.e., the coast of Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province, and the Pearl River Delta, the flooded areas are 5.0× 10^3, 64.1×10^3 and 15.3 × 10^3 km2 in 2050 and 5.2 × 10^3, 67.8×10^3 and 17.2 × 10^3 km2 in 2080, respectively.     

东北地区地震活动的Rydelek-Sacks周期性检验和震级-周期谱研究

为检验中国东北地区地震活动可能存在的周期性特征和深、浅源地震在周期性活动上的相关性,利用Rydelek-Sacks检验方法和不同的地震目录,考虑了地震震级的选取对周期性特征识别可能存在的影响,并在震级-周期谱中进行了比较研究.对该地区1970-2009年ML≥4.5浅源地震、1920-2009年Ms≥5.0浅源地震和1...     

汶川M_s 8.0地震大震复发周期的研究进展

汶川Ms8.0地震发生在青藏高原东缘NE向龙门山断裂带上,造成以映秀、北川为中心的长达300km的同震地表破裂带.初步研究认为,龙门山断裂带大震复发属于特征地震模式.本文在考虑地形差异影响下,用有限元数值模拟方法对汶川地震的大震复发周期进行研究.初步结果表明:龙门山断裂带大震复发周期为3908～4482a,该结果与古地震、断层滑动法、地震矩率、GPS数据确定等给出的结果具有较好的一致性,为龙门山断裂带的地震活动性及地震危险性研究提供重要的定量依据.     

Seismic behaviour of the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara (NW Turkey): implications for earthquake recurrence times and future seismic hazard

Possible long-term seismic behaviour of the Northern strand of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, between western extreme of the 1999 İzmit rupture and the Aegean Sea, after 400 AD is studied by examining the historical seismicity, the submarine fault mapping and the paleoseismological studies of the recent scientific efforts. The long-term seismic behaviour is discussed through two possible seismicity models devised from M _S ≥ 7.0 historical earthquakes. The estimated return period of years of the fault segments for M1 and M2 seismic models along with their standard deviations are as follows: F4 segment 255 ± 60 and 258 ± 12; F5 segment 258 ± 60 and 258 ± 53; F6 segment 258 ± 60 and 258 ± 53; F7 segment 286 ± 103 and 286 ± 90; F8 segment 286 ± 90 and 286 ± 36. As the latest ruptures on the submarine segments have been reported to be during the 1754–1766 earthquake sequence, and the 1912 mainshock rupture has been evidenced to extend almost all over the western part of the Sea of Marmara, our results imply imminent seismic hazard and, considering the mean recurrence time, a large earthquake to strike the eastern part of the Sea of Marmara in the next two decades.     

多变量干旱事件识别与频率计算方法

干旱持续时间久、影响范围大,时空连续性是干旱的基本特征,以往研究大多考虑单变量或双变量。通过给定阈值识别干旱斑块和判断两相邻时间干旱的连续性,提出了时空连续的干旱事件三维识别方法,用干旱历时、干旱面积、干旱烈度、干旱强度和干旱中心位置5个特征变量对一场干旱事件进行度量;提出了基于Copula函数的干旱历时-面积-烈度三变量频率分析方法。以中国西南地区为例,采用SPI(Standard Precipitation Index)干旱指标识别了近52年发生历时等于或大于3个月的干旱事件,一共78场,其中2009年8月至2010年6月最严重干旱事件的重现期为94年一遇。通过比较概率分布函数和Copula函数,表明在干旱频率分析时需要考虑干旱历时、面积、烈度3个特征变量。     

活断层的定义与分类——历史、现状和进展

活断层是在最近地质时期持续活动, 并且未来仍将活动的断裂。活断层作为破坏性地震的主要危险源及其可能衍生的多种潜在灾害作用, 意味着它的存在对所在区域的城镇发展和重要基础设施建设都存在难以回避的灾害风险问题。而中国是世界上活断层数量多且遭受相关灾害影响特别严重的国家之一, 如何科学评价活断层危险性且有效减轻相关的灾害风险必然是我国经济社会发展中长期面临的重大课题。而活断层定义和分类是评价活断层灾害风险的重要依据。在全面系统地梳理分析国内外在这一领域的历史与现状基础上, 介绍并总结了代表性国家和地区、相关的规范标准以及活断层编图与空间数据库建设工程等所采用的活断层定义和分类方案。综合分析与对比结果表明, 在制定科学合理的活断层定义及分类方案时,必须综合考虑区域的现今构造动力学背景、现有技术手段及地质上的可操作性、应用目的和社会对活断层风险的可接受程度等因素。活断层定义的关键是过去活动时限及潜在发震能力的选择或确定, 前者涉及“新构造、第四纪、晚第四纪、全新世和历史上”共5个不同时间尺度, 后者包括“M≥5.0的破坏性地震、M≥6.0的强震和M≥6.5的可能产生地表位移或变形的地震”共3类。晚第四纪和全新世等短时间尺度的活断层定义适合应用于构造活动强烈的板块边界带, 但第四纪和新构造等长时间尺度的活断层定义在板内变形区和稳定大陆区, 或包含了多种不同活动构造域的区域更为可取。而M≥5.0地震适用于作为区域性防震减灾的震级标准, M≥6.5地震一般可作为活断层避让规范或法规中的标准。国内外最常见的活断层分类方案是基于断裂活动强度与频度(主要通过断层滑动速率与地震复发间隔两个定量参数来体现)和活动时代的分类。但在确定不同级别断层的具体定量参数时, 需要综合考虑区域内主要活断层活动强度和活动时代的差异性与现有数据的多寡及有效性, 从而达到分类方案可有效区分不同级别活动断裂的目的。另外, 活断层评价中还经常涉及活断层的活动性与危险性问题, 前者反映的是断裂过去的活动状态, 主要通过断层的最新活动时间、平均滑动速率和大地震平均复发间隔等定量参数体现, 而断层的危险性主要针对的是活断层在人类社会所关心时段内或工程寿命期内, 断裂活动可能造成的灾害及其风险程度, 需要在判定断裂活动性基础上, 进一步明确未来强震可能出现的位置、震级的大小、地表断层的分布以及一旦发生强震可能造成的地质灾害类型及分布等, 通过合理区分出断层的危险性为政府管理部门和工程规划建设部门有效减轻、防控或管理活断层灾害风险提供更具实用性的依据。目前, 世界上活断层比较发育且灾害影响显著的典型国家和地区都十分重视全国范围内的活断层普查工作, 并把综合编制可更新的且公开共享的全国性活断层图及空间数据库作为长期且重要的基础地质工作, 以及有效应对活断层灾害风险和服务社会的重要方式。其中美国西部地州和新西兰等制定的活断层避让法规或规范, 非常值得活断层数量多且相关灾害问题突出的中国或类似的国家和地区借鉴。