A real-time stage Muskingum forecasting model for a site without rating curve

Abstract

An adaptive model for on-line stage forecasting is proposed for river reaches where significant lateral inflow contributions occur. The model is based on the Muskingum method and requires the estimation of four parameters if the downstream rating curve is unknown; otherwise only two parameters have to be determined. As the choice of the forecast lead time is linked to wave travel time along the reach, to increase the lead time, a schematization of two connected river reaches is also investigated. The variability of lateral inflow is accounted for through an on-line adaptive procedure. Calibration and validation of the model were carried out by applying it to different flood events observed in two equipped river reaches of the upper-middle Tiber basin in central Italy, characterized by a significant contributing drainage area. Even if the rating curve is unknown at the downstream section, the forecast stage hydrographs were found in good agreement with those observed. Errors in peak stage and time to peak along with the persistence coefficient values show that the model has potential as a practical tool for on-line flood risk management.     

Real-time flood forecasting by relating local stage and remote discharge

Abstract

The rating curve model (RCM) proposed by Moramarco and co-authors is modified here for flood forecasting purposes without using rainfall information. The RCM is a simple approach for discharge assessment at a river site of interest based on relating the local recorded stage and the remote discharge monitored at an upstream gauged river site located some distance away. The proposed RCM for real-time application (RCM-RT), involves only two parameters and can be used for river reaches where significant lateral flows occur. The forecast lead time depends on the mean wave travel time of the reach. The model is found to be accurate for a long reach of the Po River (northern Italy) and for two branches of the Tiber River (central Italy) characterized by different intermediate drainage areas and wave travel times. Moreover, the assessment of the forecast uncertainty coming from the model parameters is investigated by performing a Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the model capability to accurately forecast the exceedence of fixed hydrometric thresholds is analysed.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin     

板式中型桩复合基础真型试验成果分析与研究

为验证板式中型桩复合基础设计方法的准确性,通过现场6个真型基础试验,进一步研究板式中型桩复合基础的破坏机理,研究受荷过程中上部板式基础与下部桩基础的荷载分担情况以及两部分基础的共同作用情况,进一步优化和完善设计理论,形成了相应的计算方法。     

Evaluation and generalization of temperature‐based methods for calculating evaporation

Seven temperature‐based equations, each representing a typical form, were evaluated and compared for determining evaporation at two climatological stations (Rawson Lake and Atikokan) in north‐western Ontario, Canada. The comparison was first made using the original constant values involved in each equation, and then using the recalibrated constant values. The results show that when the original constant values were used, larger biases existed for most of the equations for both stations. When recalibrated constant values were substituted for the original constant values, six of the seven equations improved for both stations. Using locally calibrated parameter values, all seven equations worked well for determining mean seasonal evaporation values. For monthly evaporation values, the modified Blaney–Criddle method produced least error for all months for both stations, followed by the Hargreaves and Thornthwaite methods. The Linacre, Kharrufa and Hamon methods showed a significant bias in September for both stations. With properly determined constant values, the modified Blaney–Criddle, the Hargreaves and Thornthwaite methods can be recommended for estimating evaporation in the study region, as far as temperature‐based methods are concerned. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Performance evaluation of a real‐time pseudodynamic test system

This paper presents a detailed analysis of a real‐time pseudodynamic test system using a system transfer function. The analysis considers the actuator control scheme, the dynamics of the actuator, test structure, and actuator reaction frame, the influence of actuator time delay on response computation, and methods to compensate for the time‐lag errors. It has been observed that the system can achieve an excellent performance with optimum control gains. The two error‐compensation methods presented here are also proven to be effective. Further, it has been demonstrated that the adverse effect of the inertia force developed by the test structure can be corrected for during a real‐time test, and that the influence of the reaction frame flexibility is small when the frame is reasonably massive and stiff as compared to the test structure. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

两种空间技术实现独立地球参考架地心坐标的精度分析

在并置站上对GPS和VLBI两种空间技术测定的地心坐标进行了比较,经过历元统一、偏心改正和七个转换参数之后,得到了两种空间技术地心坐标之间的不符值,其可以认为是这两种空间技术的真正实现精度,这两种地心坐标三个坐标轴方向分量的外符精度都在1 cm之内,试验说明了GPS和VLBI确定的地心坐标已达到毫米级。     

商丘近40a蒸发量变化特征及原因分析

利用商丘1961-2000年小型蒸发皿蒸发量资料,分析了商丘蒸发量的变化趋势及引起蒸发量变化的因子,结果表明,商丘年、季和月蒸发量均存在明显的下降趋势,影响蒸发量变化的因子主要有风速、日照、相对湿度、水汽压等。     

水箱模型在大尺度流域实时洪水预报模型研制中的应用

水箱模型用于实时洪水作业预报的具体成果尚不多，本文研究的目的在于将水箱模型用于大尺度流域实时洪水预报。本文介绍了应用水箱模型建立实时洪水预报模型的方法。按照河段流量传播时间将寸滩以上干、支流划分为若干子河段，各子河段按照计算时段长分成若干单元河段，各单元河段区间降雨径流预报采用水箱模型．河道流量演算采用连续马斯京根法。河系预报模型精度在85％以上，能够满足实时洪水预报的要求。     

面向小样本分类的高光谱影像特征提取

研究了面向小样本分类的高光谱影像特征提取技术，提出了一种用于小样本分类的投影寻踪指标和基于SVMPP的高光谱影像特征提取方法；并借助误差校正输出码，将两类问题的特征提取推广到多类情况。通过高光谱影像分类实验证明，该方法具有很强的小样本学习能力，能够在先验信息很少的情况下较准确地提取地物的分类特征。