土壤热异常对地表能量平衡影响初探

将来自土壤深部的热通量引入off line的陆面过程模式 (NCAR—LSM ) ,通过长达 2a的数值试验对比分析了它对各层次土壤温度和地表能量平衡的影响。　　在土壤底部引入 5W /m2 的热通量使底层土壤显著升温 ,但升温随着接近表层而迅速衰减。积分 3个月后 ,由地下进入地表的热流量增幅可达 1W/m2 以上 ,并持续增大到 5W /m2 ,地表最大升温约 0 .5K ,同时地表感热、蒸发潜热及长波辐射通量均有 1W /m2 左右的正异常 ;若将土壤热传导系数放大一个量级以加速热量交换 ,则地表升温提高到 1K以上 ,长波辐射增加 3W /m2 以上 ,超过了气溶胶全球平均的辐射效应。结果表明 :一定量值的土壤热异常对地表能量平衡和短期气候变化 (10 -1～ 10 1a)有着不可忽略的影响。同时 ,深入的资料分析、完善的陆面过程模式以及它与大气模式的耦合试验也是亟待进行的相关工作。     

Probabilistic analysis of peak response of MDOF systems with uncertain PSD function

The use of uniform hazard spectra which have the same probability of exceedance at different frequencies has been proposed for the future version of the National Building Code of Canada. Commonly used combination rules to estimate the peak responses of multi‐degree‐of‐freedom (MDOF) systems are the square root of sum of squares rule and the complete quadratic combination rule. However, the probability that the peak response of a MDOF system exceeds the one estimated by using these rules with the peak modal responses from the uniform hazard spectra cannot be inferred directly. The assessment of the probability of exceedance of the peak response of MDOF systems is presented by considering that the uncertainty in seismic excitation due to all potential earthquakes can be lumped in the power spectral density function of the ground acceleration with uncertain model parameters. This probability is evaluated based on the random vibration of linear systems and the first‐order reliability method. It is found that the under‐ or over‐estimations are less than about 5 or 10% if the modal contributions are not within 10–90% of, or not within 20–80% of, the absolute sum of the effective modal peak responses, respectively. Otherwise, severe under‐ or over‐estimation could result. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

东南极Lambert冰川-Amery冰架系统平衡通量分布的计算

通过对Lambert冰川盆地(LGB)考察路线上约1 700 km长的LGB剖面和距冰架末端约50 km、长150 km的A剖面, 分别利用GPS冰流速值及雷达测厚值进行冰通量的计算得出:每年流过LGB剖面的冰通量为43.95 Gta-1, 而通过A剖面的冰通量仅为26. 42 Gt*a-1, Amery冰架底部净融化量为7.8 Gt*a-1. 整个Lambert冰川-Amery冰架系统(LAS)地区的表面净物质平衡总量约为90 Gt*a-1; LGB地区的表面净物质平衡总量为46 Gt*a-1. 通过分析得出, 整个LAS地区及LGB地区均处于物质正平衡状态, 而LAS流域的上游区域S'则处于物质负平衡状态.     

Simulation of artificial random field considering the temporal-spatial variation

Introduction For the seismic design of special structures such as nuclear power station, marine platform, long-span bridge and dam, generally the time-history response analysis of the structure under seismic excitation is imperative, which was coded in most seismic design codes. The earthquake records suitable for the seismic situation and site condition are necessary to be used as the seismic input in the dynamic analysis of structures. As a result of the limited observational condition of st…     

高层钢框架-支撑结构二阶非线性随机地震响应分析

针对常用的高层钢框架－支撑结构，考虑材料非线性和几何非线性，建立了框架部分、支撑部分的二阶动力分析模型。用等效线性方法对结构进行非线性随机地震响应分析，结合工程算例，论述不同场地土、不同层数、不同支撑情况下，二阶效应对结构地震响应统计量的影响。     

Use of Noise to Augment Training Data: A Neural Network Method of Mineral–Potential Mapping in Regions of Limited Known Deposit Examples

One of the main factors that affects the performance of MLP neural networks trained using the backpropagation algorithm in mineral-potential mapping isthe paucity of deposit relative to barren training patterns. To overcome this problem, random noise is added to the original training patterns in order to create additional synthetic deposit training data. Experiments on the effect of the number of deposits available for training in the Kalgoorlie Terrane orogenic gold province show that both the classification performance of a trained network and the quality of the resultant prospectivity map increasesignificantly with increased numbers of deposit patterns. Experiments are conducted to determine the optimum amount of noise using both uniform and normally distributed random noise. Through the addition of noise to the original deposit training data, the number of deposit training patterns is increased from approximately 50 to 1000. The percentage of correct classifications significantly improves for the independent test set as well as for deposit patterns in the test set. For example, using ±40% uniform random noise, the test-set classification performance increases from 67.9% and 68.0% to 72.8% and 77.1% (for test-set overall and test-set deposit patterns, respectively). Indices for the quality of the resultant prospectivity map, (i.e. D/A, D × (D/A), where D is the percentage of deposits and A is the percentage of the total area for the highest prospectivity map-class, and area under an ROC curve) also increase from 8.2, 105, 0.79 to 17.9, 226, 0.87, respectively. Increasing the size of the training-stop data set results in a further increase in classification performance to 73.5%, 77.4%, 14.7, 296, 0.87 for test-set overall and test-set deposit patterns, D/A, D × (D/A), and area under the ROC curve, respectively.     

层控夕卡岩型矿床成矿系统的元素活动性及质量迁移--以铜陵冬瓜山铜矿床为例

应用改善了的质量平衡方程研究冬瓜山层控夕卡岩型铜矿床成矿系统的元素活动性及质量迁移，结果表明：系统中Zr,Hf,Y和Nb为不活动元素，其余均为活动元素。主量元素中仅CaO为迁出组分，其质量迁移量为84％，其余均为带入组分，带入量最大的SiO2的质量迁移量高达2384％；稀土元素均为带入组分，其中，中稀土较轻稀土和重稀土的活动性更强；其它微量元素中，带入序列由强到弱为：Cr→Ta→Sn→Th，迁出序列由强至弱依次为：U→Sb→Ni—Sr→Ba→Bb→Co→W；成矿元素Cu和Ag为带入组分，其中Cu的带入量最大，质量迁移量高达1200％。本文还得出两点具普适性认识：①稀土元素较其它微量元素对体系条件的变化更为敏感，且往往表现出明显的规律性变化，能更好地示踪地质地球化学过程。②不同元素在不同体系中的行为特征差异极大，仅凭经验判定某一元素为不活动元素往往不可靠。因此，在开展质量平衡研究时，首先采用适当方法确认体系的不活动元素是一项不可或缺的前提工作。     

结构随机响应的一种改进的概率谱叠加方法

目前有一些关于多自由度结构体系的地震响应中响应峰值按降序(即由大到小的顺序)排列时的峰值统计性质的研究。本文对这些研究中的概率方法提出一些改进。由于这些改进，概率谱叠加方法在实际应用中就变得更准确和实用。本文以五层的结构模型为例，计算其在埃尔森特罗(1940)地震激励下的响应，并与时程分析结果进行比较。结果表明，改进的概率谱叠加方法能够谁确的计算较高几阶重要响应峰值的幅值。     

Scaling effects on modeled surface energy-balance components using the NOAH-OSU land surface model

As surface exchange processes are highly non-linear and heterogeneous in space and time, it is important to know the appropriate scale for the reasonable prediction of these exchange processes. For example, the explicit representation of surface variability has been vital in predicting mesoscale weather events such as late-afternoon thunderstorms initiated by latent heat exchanges in mid-latitude regions of the continental United States. This study was undertaken to examine the effects of different spatial scales of input data on modeled fluxes, so as to better understand the resolution needed for accurate modeling. A statistical procedure was followed to select two cells from the Southern Great Plains 1997 hydrology experiment region, each 20 km×20 km, representing the most homogeneous and the most heterogeneous surface conditions (based on soil and vegetation) within the study region. The NOAH-OSU (Oregon State University) Land Surface Model (LSM) was employed to estimate surface energy fluxes. Three scales of study (200 m, 2 and 20 km) were considered in order to investigate the impacts of the aggregation of input data, especially soil and vegetation inputs, on the model output. Model results of net radiation and latent, sensible and ground heat fluxes were compared for the three scales. For the heterogeneous area, the model output at the 20-km resolution showed some differences when compared with the 200-m and 2-km resolutions. This was more pronounced in latent heat (12% decrease), sensible heat (22% increase), and ground heat flux (44% increase) estimation than in net radiation. The scaling effects were much less for the relatively homogeneous land area with 5% increase in sensible heat and 4% decrease in ground heat flux estimation. All of the model outputs for the 2- and 20-km resolutions were in close agreement. The results suggested that, for this study region, soils and vegetation input resolution of about 2 km should be chosen for realistic modeling of surface exchange processes. This resolution was sufficient to capture the effects of sub-grid scale heterogeneity, while avoiding the data and computational difficulties associated with higher spatial resolutions.