基于Sentinel-1B SAR数据的洪水提取和监测

洪涝灾害是我国最严重的气象灾害之一,及时准确的洪灾监测是防灾减灾的重要前期工作和基础。本文利用sentinel-1B雷达数据,以黑瞎子岛为研究区,联合使用OSTU阈值分割法和随机森林面向对象分类法针对像素统计单波形、双波形、多波形SAR影像提取洪水要素,实现对洪灾淹没面积的时序监测,为灾情监测提供数据和技术支撑。     

随机森林算法在全球干旱评估中的应用

干旱是发生频率最高,造成社会、经济损失和生态破坏最严重、最广泛的自然灾害之一,因此对干旱进行可靠、有效的评估十分重要.本文以月平均降水、月平均温度、月最高温度、月最低温度、土壤湿度、蒸散发、NDVI、叶绿素荧光等作为解释变量,以基于SPI的干旱等级作为目标变量,采用随机森林算法,以2007-2012年的数据作为训练数据...     

随机激励下非线性海洋结构物响应分析方法研究进展

对在随机载荷作用下非线性海洋结构物的运动响应分析的各种方法进行了综述,对有些方法的基本原理做了阐述,并指出一些最新的研究进展和今后进一步研究的方向。     

基于FY-4A卫星和随机森林算法的西藏山南市雷电短临预报方法

针对青藏高原地区雷电短临预报缺乏雷达资料的问题,采用FY-4A卫星多通道数据、欧洲中心第5代再分析资料(ERA5)中的对流指数、闪电定位仪资料等多源监测数据,根据雷电的发生、发展机理,提出了18个关键预报因子,利用随机森林算法建立了适用于西藏山南地区的雷电短临预报模型。统计分析各预报因子在有无雷电天气样本中的概率密度分布与随机森林模型得到的特征重要度指标,结果表明提出的预报因子物理意义明确,建立的模型可信度较高。利用随机森林算法分别对未来10 min、20 min、30 min建立雷电预报模型,并与光流外推预报方法进行对比检验,结果表明：随机森林模型预报效果命中率(POD)、临界成功指数(CSI)均高于光流法,空报率(FAR)也相对较低;未来20 min的随机森林预报模型CSI评分最高,整体预报效果最佳。     

Distribution of the nonlinear random ocean wave period

Because of the intrinsic difficulty in determining distributions for wave periods, previous studies on wave period distribution models have not taken nonlinearity into account and have not performed well in terms of describing and statistically analyzing the probability density distribution of ocean waves. In this study, a statistical model of random waves is developed using Stokes wave theory of water wave dynamics. In addition, a new nonlinear probability distribution function for the wave period is presented with the parameters of spectral density width and nonlinear wave steepness, which is more reasonable as a physical mechanism. The magnitude of wave steepness determines the intensity of the nonlinear effect, while the spectral width only changes the energy distribution. The wave steepness is found to be an important parameter in terms of not only dynamics but also statistics. The value of wave steepness reflects the degree that the wave period distribution skews from the Cauchy distribution, and it also describes the variation in the distribution function, which resembles that of the wave surface elevation distribution and wave height distribution. We found that the distribution curves skew leftward and upward as the wave steepness increases. The wave period observations for the SZFII-1 buoy, made off the coast of Weihai (37°27.6′ N, 122°15.1′ E), China, are used to verify the new distribution. The coefficient of the correlation between the new distribution and the buoy data at different spectral widths (ν=0.3−0.5) is within the range of 0.968 6 to 0.991 7. In addition, the Longuet-Higgins (1975) and Sun (1988) distributions and the new distribution presented in this work are compared. The validations and comparisons indicate that the new nonlinear probability density distribution fits the buoy measurements better than the Longuet-Higgins and Sun distributions do. We believe that adoption of the new wave period distribution would improve traditional statistical wave theory.     

大马士革非正式聚落的讨论(英文)

Toadies cities are accumulating the global population in their territories,occurring formally and informally.The in-crease of urban informality is the most significant trend shaping the 21st century world.Furthermore,the urban informality theory should be considered in urbanization courses and development studies.With the rapid economic market development,changes mapped the major Syrian cities.Damascus is in the midst of a profound transformation of architectural and planning changes.Damascus urbanization i...     

Nonlinear random wave-induced drag force on a vegetation field

This paper provides a practical method by which the drag force on a vegetation field beneath nonlinear random waves can be estimated. This is achieved by using a simple drag formula together with an empirical drag coefficient given by Mendez et al. (Mendez, F.J., Losada, I.J., Losada, M.A., 1999. Hydrodynamics induced by wind waves in a vegetation field. J. Geophys. Res. 104 (C8), 18383–18396). Effects of nonlinear waves are included by using Stokes second order wave theory where the basic harmonic motion is assumed to be a stationary Gaussian narrow–band random process. An example of calculation is also presented.     

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三个牙鲆育种群体亲本效应及遗传参数估计

针对牙鲆(Paralichthys olivaceus)养殖品种生长速度变慢、抗病力降低这一问题。近年来构建了牙鲆抗病群体(RS)、日本群体(JS)和黄海群体(YS)3个育种群体,开展牙鲆选择育种,建立了63个家系,收集了所有家系5 328尾鱼苗的体长和体重数据。借助线形混合模型(Linear mixedmodel)、"加性-显性"模型、约束极大似然法(REML)及最佳线性无偏预测(BLUP)分别估计亲本效应值、体重和体长遗传力和遗传相关、父母本效应和杂交效应。预测结果显示,其中父本130,141,146,170,218,229,303和308随机效应达到了极显著效应水平(P<0.01),父本112,122,141,190,212达到显著水平(P<0.05),所有母本体重随机效应达到了极显著水平(P<0.01);体长和体重两性状的加性、显性、表型和基因型相关分量都达到极显著水平(P<0.01),体长和体重的加性方差比率均大于显性方差比率,可见两性状的遗传效应主要取决于基因的加性效应。体长的总遗传效应率为31.20%,体重的总遗传效应率为33.58%,体长和体重的随机方差比率分别达到68.80%和66.41%,说明养殖环境等因素对牙鲆体长和体重的影响较大,同时说明在牙鲆选择育种中消除环境影响极为重要。体长和体重的狭义遗传率分别为0.199和0.256(P<0.01),广义遗传率分别为0.312和0.336(P<0.01),牙鲆在以上两性状上属于中等遗传力,通过选择育种可取得较大的遗传进展。对3个牙鲆育种群体杂交随机效应估计结果显示,抗病群体和黄海群体在体长和体重两性状上加性随机效应显著(P<0.05);抗病群体分别与日本群体、黄海群体杂交,其后代表现出显性随机效应达到0.10的水平(P<0.10),黄海群体自交、日本群体和黄海群体杂交随机效应不显著(P>0.05),因此在杂交组配中选择抗病群体与其他两个群体交配可取得较好的效果。     

Parametric vibration of submerged floating tunnel tether under random excitation

For the study of the parametric vibration response of submerged floating tunnel tether under random excitation,a nonlinear random parametric vibration equation of coupled tether and tube of submerged floating tunnel is set up.Subsequently,vibration response of tether in the tether-tube system is analyzed by Monte Carlo method.It may be concluded that when the tube is subjected to zero-mean Gaussian white noise random excitation,the displacement and velocity root mean square responses of tether reach the peak if the circular frequency of tube doubles that of tether;the displacement and velocity root mean square responses of tether increase as the random excitation root mean square increases;owing to the damping force of water,the displacement and velocity root mean square responses of tether decrease rapidly compared with tether in air;increasing the damping of the tether or tube reduces the displacement and velocity root mean square responses of tether;the large-amplitude vibration of tether may be avoided by locating dampers on the tether or tube.