THE THEORY OF RESPONSE ANALYSIS OF FUZZY STOCHASTIC DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS WITH A SINGLE DEGREE OF FREEDOM

Most real-life structural/mechanical systems have complex geometrical and material properties and operate under complex fuzzy environmental conditions. These systems are certainly subjected to fuzzy random excitations induced by the environment. For an analytical treatment of such a system subjected to fuzzy random excitations, it becomes necessary to establish the general theory of dynamic response of a system to fuzzy random excitations. In this paper, the theory of response, fuzzy mean response and fuzzy covariance response of a single-degree-of-freedom (sdf) system to fuzzy random excitations in the time domain and frequency domain is put forward. The theory of response analysis of an sdf system to both stationary and non-stationary fuzzy random excitations in the time domain and frequency domain is established. Two examples are considered in order to demonstrate the rationality and validity of the theory, and the models of stationary filtered white noise and non-stationary filtered white noise fuzzy stochastic processes of the earthquake ground motion are set up. Methods of analysis for fuzzy random seismic response of sdf systems are put forward using the principles of response analysis of an sdf fuzzy random dynamic system.     

不排水抗剪强度非平稳随机场模拟及边坡可靠度分析

边坡可靠度分析中通常假定采用平稳或准平稳随机场表征土体参数的空间变异性,然而大量现场试验数据表明,土体参数如不排水抗剪强度沿土体埋深常呈现明显的非平稳分布特征,即其均值和标准差均随埋深发生变化,因此亟需发展土体参数非平稳随机场模型及其模拟方法。针对目前不能有效单独模拟土体参数趋势分量和随机波动分量的不确定性,提出了一种有效的不排水抗剪强度参数非平稳随机场模型,并给出了土体参数二维非平稳随机场模拟方法计算流程,同时将新提出的模型与现有非平稳随机场模型及平稳随机场模型进行了系统比较。最后通过不排水饱和黏土边坡算例验证了提出模型的有效性,并揭示了不排水抗剪强度非平稳分布特征对边坡可靠度的影响规律。结果表明：提出模型能够有效地单独模拟土体参数趋势分量和随机波动分量的不确定性,考虑土体参数均值和标准差随埋深增加而增大的特性,可为表征土体参数非平稳分布特征提供了一条有效的途径。此外,与采用非平稳随机场模拟土体参数空间变异性相比,采用常用的平稳随机场模型会低估边坡失效概率,从而造成偏危险的边坡工程设计方案。     

随机波浪下泰勒离散系数的时域解

利用Wolk提出的粒子追踪方程,通过等分频率法划分不规则波谱,利用MATLAB做粒子运动模拟计算,得到无因次化泰勒离散系数K/D随时间t变化的曲线;通过与Huang等得到的P-M谱的泰勒离散系数K/D计算结果比较证明了本计算方法的可靠性。采用该方法研究了不规则波条件下,波序列(同一谱型不同波面序列)和谱型(谱峰周期、有效波高、谱峰升高因子)对波浪离散系数的影响;计算结果表明:同一谱型不同波序列对泰勒纵向离散系数稳定值和稳定时间无影响;不规则波谱峰周期越大,纵向离散系数K/D越小,稳定时间越短;有效波高越大,纵向离散系数K/D越大,稳定时间越长;谱峰升高因子越大,泰勒离散系数K/D越大,稳定时间越长;与规则波相比,不规则波的泰勒离散系数K/D的值略小10%~30%。     

基于随机事件集的风暴潮重现期计算的合理性研究

为了研究随机事件集实际应用于计算南通如东岸段风暴增水的合理性问题,基于ADCIRC模型模拟影响南通如东岸段基于随机事件集的风暴增水,然后利用P-Ⅲ型曲线对年增水极值进行拟合,得到各典型重现期下的增水值,并与由28年历史资料拟合得到的各重现期下增水值进行对比。结果表明,在历史资料长度所及的28年以及以下重现期,基于随机事件集模拟得到的重现期增水值与基于历史实测资料的比较符合,说明随机事件集的结果在低重现期情况下结果良好。对于高重现期增水值,基于随机事件集的拟合结果显著大于基于历史资料的拟合结果。由于历史资料时间太短,不足以发生非常极端的风暴潮事件,故对高重现期的拟合结果难以保证可信度,所以不能排除随机事件集拟合结果的合理性。随机事件集在南通如东岸段对低重现期增水估计准确,同时也能较充分地估计高重现期增水,在目前缺乏百年千年时间尺度的实测资料的情况下,不失为一种良好的风暴增水重现期计算工具。在全球变暖情况下,超强台风出现几率大大增加,典型重现期增水值也会相应提高,为了预防风暴灾害的侵袭,需要加深加固海堤、江堤等海岸工程。     

Learning soil parameters and updating geotechnical reliability estimates under spatial variability – theory and application to shallow foundations

ABSTRACT

Field data is commonly used to determine soil parameters for geotechnical analysis. Bayesian analysis allows combining field data with other information on soil parameters in a consistent manner. We show that the spatial variability of the soil properties and the associated measurements can be captured through two different modelling approaches. In the first approach, a single random variable (RV) represents the soil property within the area of interest, while the second approach models the spatial variability explicitly with a random field (RF). We apply the Bayesian concept exemplarily to the reliability assessment of a shallow foundation in a silty soil with spatially variable data. We show that the simpler RV approach is applicable in cases where the measurements do not influence the correlation structure of the soil property at the vicinity of the foundation. In other cases, it is expected to underestimate the reliability, and a RF model is required to obtain accurate results.     

沙漠地区地震勘探随机噪声建模及其在噪声压制中的应用

随机噪声是影响地震勘探有效信号的主要因素,其存在大大降低了地震记录的信噪比.在噪声压制方法不断被改进的同时,对随机噪声特性进行研究,了解噪声的产生机制是对其进行压制的先决条件,目前对噪声的研究主要是特性研究以寻找规律性,对其进行定性定量的分析还比较少.本文根据塔里木沙漠地区实际采集环境,考虑到噪声的连续性给计算带来的不便,假设各类噪声源以点源的形式分布在检波器周围,依据相应理论确定各类噪声源的源函数,其激发的噪声经由波动方程传播,将随机噪声作为各类噪声源共同作用的综合波场,建立随机噪声的理论模型.通过分析不同种噪声对地震记录的影响,选取合适的滤波方法对其进行压制,实验结果表明,通过建立沙漠地区随机噪声的理论模型,为选择有效的滤波方法,提高地震记录信噪比起到理论指导作用.     

基于Duffing振子混沌系统的地震速度分析方法

强随机噪声干扰是导致地震勘探资料低信噪比的主要原因,如何在强随机噪声干扰下获取有效的信息是值得关注的问题.Duffing振子混沌系统是一个非线性的动力学系统,其对强随机噪声具有免疫能力,而对特定的周期性信号具有敏感性.本文提出一种基于Duffing振子混沌系统的速度分析方法.对CMP道集按照时距曲线关系进行移动窗口截取,将所截取的信号构建为待测信号加入Duffing振子混沌系统,通过相图网格分割方法(GPM)判断系统状态的改变,从而在强随机噪声背景下获得高分辨率的速度谱.理论模型和实际资料的处理结果表明,与传统的水平叠加速度分析方法相比,本方法能够在强随机噪声背景下获得更准确的速度分析结果.     

First-principles derivation of reactive transport modeling parameters for particle tracking and PDE approaches

Both Eulerian and Lagrangian reactive transport simulations in natural media require selection of a parameter that controls the “promiscuity” of the reacting particles. In Eulerian models, measurement of this parameter may be difficult because its value will generally differ between natural (diffusion-limited) systems and batch experiments, even though both are modeled by reaction terms of the same form. And in Lagrangian models, there previously has been no a priori way to compute this parameter. In both cases, then, selection is typically done by calibration, or ad hoc. This paper addresses the parameter selection problem for Fickian transport by deriving, from first principles and D (the diffusion constant) the reaction-rate-controlling parameters for particle tracking (PT) codes and for the diffusion–reaction equation (DRE). Using continuous time random walk analysis, exact reaction probabilities are derived for pairs of potentially reactive particles based on D and their probability of reaction provided that they collocate. Simultaneously, a second PT scheme directly employing collocation probabilities is derived. One-to-one correspondence between each of D, the reaction radius specified for a PT scheme, and the DRE decay constant are then developed. These results serve to ground reactive transport simulations in their underlying thermodynamics, and are confirmed by simulations.     

Structural modal parameter identification and damage diagnosis based on Hilbert-Huang transform

Traditional modal parameter identifi cation methods have many disadvantages,especially when used for processing nonlinear and non-stationary signals.In addition,they are usually not able to accurately identify the damping ratio and damage.In this study,methods based on the Hilbert-Huang transform(HHT) are investigated for structural modal parameter identifi cation and damage diagnosis.First,mirror extension and prediction via a radial basis function(RBF) neural network are used to restrain the troublesome end-effect issue in empirical mode decomposition(EMD),which is a crucial part of HHT.Then,the approaches based on HHT combined with other techniques,such as the random decrement technique(RDT),natural excitation technique(NExT) and stochastic subspace identifi cation(SSI),are proposed to identify modal parameters of structures.Furthermore,a damage diagnosis method based on the HHT is also proposed.Time-varying instantaneous frequency and instantaneous energy are used to identify the damage evolution of the structure.The relative amplitude of the Hilbert marginal spectrum is used to identify the damage location of the structure.Finally,acceleration records at gauge points from shaking table testing of a 12-story reinforced concrete frame model are taken to validate the proposed approaches.The results show that the proposed approaches based on HHT for modal parameter identifi cation and damage diagnosis are reliable and practical.     

盐岩地下储气库套管运行安全的可靠性分析研究

盐岩因其具有良好的蠕变特性、低渗透性以及损伤自我恢复特性成为国际上公认的最理想能源地下存储介质。在盐岩地下储气库运营过程中储库套管受到储气内压、材料参数和几何尺寸等不确定性因素的影响,为了评价这些随机风险因素对储库套管结构运行安全的影响,建立了盐岩储气库的套管结构模型和基于Von Mises屈服准则的套管结构功能函数,根据建立的结构模型和结构功能函数,应用响应面法结合蒙特卡洛抽样计算获得储库在高压和低压运行条件下套管结构可靠度的变化规律。可靠性分析表明,为保证套管运行安全,储库最低运行内压应大于3 MPa,最高运行内压应小于22 MPa,套管靴距离储库腔顶的距离应大于10 m,并应适当加大套管的壁厚和减小套管的内径。