基于影响因子动态更新的都市圈国土-人口协同模拟

都市圈作为典型的复杂巨系统,其国土、人口、交通等要素呈现出共同演化、协同发展的特征。现有基于元胞自动机的空间模拟方法通常分别进行国土或人口模拟,忽略了国土、人口之间的协同演化,从而限制了模拟性能。本文提出一种影响因子动态更新策略用以表征国土、人口两种要素间的相互作用,拓展经典元胞自动机模型构建协同模拟算法,实现了都市圈国土与人口空间分布态势的精准模拟。本文以深莞惠都市圈为例,对提出算法进行了实验验证。实验结果表明,本文提出协同模拟算法在深莞惠都市圈的国土模拟品质因素为0.274、人口模拟平均绝对百分比误差23.55%,分别优于传统基于随机森林的元胞自动机算法0.24和29.33%;相较于传统模型,在国土模拟中本模型在对于建设用地的模拟准确度提升了约3%,在人口模拟中本模型在对人口高密度的区域模拟误差降低了约6%。本文进一步预测了深莞惠都市圈2030年国土和人口发展空间态势。研究结果可为都市圈重大基础设施选址和发展情景推演提供技术支撑。     

Otolith Microstructure Analysis Reveals Different Growth Histories of Japanese Sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) in the Oyashio Waters

After decades of low year classes,the stock of Japanese sardine(Sardinops melanostictus)has begun to recover since the mid-2000s.The hatch dates and otolith growth rates of age-0 juvenile sardine,which were collected in the subarctic Oyashio waters in autumn 2018,were determined from an otolith microstructure analysis.The sardines were hatched from late January to late April,while mostly in February and March.The otolith growth rate increased continuously up to 60 d after hatching and thereafter de-creased.The revealed growth rate in a crucial growth period is faster than that reported for juvenile sardines collected in the 1990s,which is coincided with the recent recovery trend of the sardine stock.Two groups with different hatch dates,growth histories,and migration routes were identified using unsupervised random forest clustering analysis.They were considered inshore and offshore migration individuals in accordance with recent researches.In the offshore group,a high proportion of sardine juveniles hatched late and grew faster in the Kuroshio-Oyashio transitional waters,a finding consistent with the hypothesis of growth-rate-dependent re-cruitment.This finding on the population composition and growth rate of juvenile sardine in the Oyashio waters can be a basis for an improved prediction of their survival and provides us with valuable information on the recruitment processes of this stock during the period of stock recovery.     

极光全天空图象移动速度的一种计算方法

用随机变形图案分析法计算极光全天空图象的移动速度。与过去直观估计方法不同的是,这样得到的是极光的整体移动速度或整个极光图象的平均速度,而不是个别部分（如最亮部分、边缘或某条亮射线等）的速度。对１９９７年６月２３日一段持续１００秒的平静带状极光记录进行了具体分析,得到极光东西向移动的最大速度为２．８ｋｍ ／ｓ。     

随机介质的声散射(Ⅰ)——广义Born近似反演

运用泛函微分方法给出弱随机介质中散射问题的散射幅度Ｂｏｒｎ近似的推广形式。讨论了关于阻尼最小二乘法反演介质参数的各价相关函数的方法,并讨论具有有限支集势函数扰动的逆问题的唯一性,其结果对运用Ｎｅｗｔｏｎ法等数值方法有实际意义。     

Study on Current-Random Wave Forces Acting on a Framework

—The forces of random wave plus current acting on a simplified offshore platform(jacket)mod-el have been studied numerically and experimentally.The numerical results are in good agreement withexperiments.The mean force can be approximated as a function of equivalent velocity parameter and theroot-mean-square force as a function of equivalent significant wave height parameter.     

斜坡稳定：方法论

据斜坡及滑这科领域国内外研究现状及工程实践,总结归纳了斜坡稳定研究了应遵循的若干原则,其中包括了工程地质建模,动态系统,稳定性评价的相对性和绝对性,以及模型的精确性与可行性等问题。     

A Probabilistic Model for Fatigue Crack Propagation Analysis

A simple probabilistic model for predicting crack growth behavior under random loading is pre-sented.In the model,the parameters c and m in the Paris-Erdogan Equation are taken as random variables,and their stochastic characteristic values are obtained through fatigue crack propagation tests on an offshorestructural steel under constant amplitude loading.Furthermore,by using the Monte Carlo simulation tech-nique,the fatigue crack propagation life to reach a given crack length is predicted.The tests are conducted toverify the applicability of the theoretical prediction of the fatigue crack propagation.     

Feedback–feedforward control of offshore platforms under random waves

This study investigates the control of jacket‐type offshore platforms. The deck displacement of jacket‐type offshore platforms can be controlled using both passive and active control mechanisms. Among the passive control mechanisms, a tuned mass damper concept is studied in this paper. Active control mechanisms considered here include the active mass damper, the active tendon mechanism and the propeller thruster. An optimal frequency domain approach to active control of wave‐excited platforms is used in which the H₂ norm of the transfer function from the external disturbance to the regulated output is minimized. In this study, the hydrodynamic drag force is evaluated using the JONSWAP wave spectrum. Unlike conventional linearization approaches, the influence of non‐linearity in the drag force is retained in this scheme by expressing the non‐linear force components in terms of higher‐order convolutions of the water‐particle velocities. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this scheme, the platform performance with and without control devices under different sea states is evaluated. It is demonstrated that the control devices are useful in reducing the displacement response of jacket‐type offshore platforms, especially when the wave forces are concentrated at frequencies close to the natural frequencies of the platform. This becomes especially significant in deep waters because the natural frequencies of jacket‐type platforms fall closer to the dominant wave frequencies in deep waters. Adding control devices to deep water platforms will ensure a reduction both in the global response of the platform and in localized effects, such as the fatigue of welded joints. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于新《电力设施抗震设计规范》的地震动随机模型参数研究

根据新《电力设施抗震设计规范》(GB50260-2013)对随机地震动功率谱参数的取值进行分析。介绍新《电力设施抗震设计规范》中设计反应谱,推导设计谱到功率谱的转换过程。选取常用的Clough-Penzien修正过滤白噪声模型作为拟合函数,通过功率谱参数拟合,得到不同场地类别、不同抗震设防烈度下的地震动模型参数。该研究成果可为电力工程抗震设计分析提供参考。