天津近海海域隐伏断裂地震危险性评价

以天津市近海海域断裂探测资料为基础,通过对海河断裂海域段和海一断裂的地质构造、第四纪活动性、深部构造、构造应力场与形变场以及地震活动性等的研究,综合判定了海河断裂海域段和海一断裂的活动性与构造特征.利用地震地质、历史与现今地震活动性资料,建立了按500a归算的震级-频度关系模型,根据天津地区的最大震级上限Mu与a/b的关系,计算出了海河断裂海域段和海一断裂的最大震级.采用泊松概率模型,估算出了海河断裂海域段和海一断裂未来50-200a发生地震的最大震级、发生概率以及复发周期等定量参数.     

基于关系视角的中国对外直接投资区位

作为发展中国家和转型期经济体,中国在对外直接投资发展中具有很强的特殊性,较多的受到国家政策及其经济增长方式的影响,具有明显的政策导向、资源导向和国有经济为主体的特征。在此背景之下,本文基于2002-2012年的中国企业对外直接投资数据和2003-2011年的中国对外直接投资流量、存量金额数据,在经典国际直接投资理论的基础上,从"关系"的视角出发,结合中国对外直接投资发展历程,系统、详细地分析了中国对外直接投资的发展模式和区位分布特征。研究发现:中国的对外直接投资在区位分布、产业分布、投资模式和企业所有制方面都相对集中,但都呈现出向多元化发展的趋势;与东道国之间存在密切的政治关系、社会关系和经济关系是中国对外直接投资的区位选择的重要影响因素。     

高煤级煤储层渗透性与应力耦合模型及控制机理

煤储层应力敏感性是影响煤层气井产能的地质因素,以鄂尔多斯盆地东南缘高煤级煤储层为对象,通过煤样的应力敏感性实验和现场测试,建立了高煤级煤储层渗透性与应力之间的相关关系和模型;探讨了渗透性变化的控制机理.研究结果表明, 煤储层渗透率随应力的增加按负指数函数规律降低.在应力小于5 MPa时,煤储层渗透率随应力增加快速下降,应力敏感性最强;应力在5~10 MPa时,渗透率随应力增加而较快下降,应力敏感性较强;而当应力大于10 MPa后,渗透率随应力的增加下降速度减缓,应力敏感性减弱.与沁水盆地南部高煤级煤样实验结果对比认为,鄂尔多斯盆地东南缘山西组2煤层应力敏感性要小于沁水盆地南部山西组3煤层的应力敏感性.煤储层渗透性是在应力作用下煤储层中裂隙产生压缩(压密)变形,裂隙开度急剧减小的结果.因此在煤层气开发过程中控制排采速度,尤其是排采早期降液速度,对于防止煤储层应力敏感性,提高采收率具有实际意义.     

The antecedent soil moisture condition of the curve number procedure

Abstract

Estimation of direct runoff, peak discharge or hydrographs is often necessary in small to medium-sized ungauged basins. Different models are used in practice for these purposes, depending on the type of problem, the available data and the prevailing runoff mechanisms in the study basin. This paper discusses the applicability of the curve number procedure developed by the US Soil Conservation Service (SCS) to estimate direct runoff in basins characterized by small to gentle undulating slopes mainly covered with natural grasslands. Rainfall and runoff data measured in the Cañada de Los Chanchos basin in Uruguay is used to fit the curve numbers and to analyse the antecedent soil moisture condition proposed by the SCS.     

Hydrological implications of the Southern Oscillation: variability of the rainfall-runoff relationship

Abstract

A connection between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and weather phenomena in eastern Australia has been recognized for several decades. However, little work has been devoted to addressing how this correlation affects hydrological system behaviour within regional-scale catchments. In this study, spatially distributed ENSO effects are evaluated in terms of monthly rainfall, evaporation, streamflow and runoff characteristics for a 1300 km² catchment. The catchment is located in southeastern Australia where previous studies have indicated only modest ENSO influences on rainfall variability. Spatial and temporal analysis indicates that strongest ENSO-induced rainfall variability occurs during summer months. Additionally, the strength of the relationship is variable in space indicating that topographic controls may affect ENSO influences on rainfall totals and intensities. However, analysis of runoff shows substantially magnified ENSO-induced variability in comparison to the induced variability in rainfall. This may be attributable to the nonlinearity of runoff generation. Differences in antecedent moisture storage conditions will exist but may also be enhanced by complementary ENSO influences on daily rainfall intensities and mean monthly evaporation and temperature totals. The degree of the nonlinearity displayed by the hydrometeorological processes presented demonstrates that the significance of ENSO forecasts for surface water resource management should be assessed with direct regard to streamflow generation rather than on the basis of rainfall totals alone.     

MESURE DE LA PERMÉABILITÉ DES SOLS EN PLACE: UN NOUVEL APPAREIL POUR LA MÉTHODE MUNTZ UNE EXTENSION DE LA MÉTHODE PORCHET AUX SOLS HÉTÉROGÈNES

ABSTRACT

The authors make a general survey of the methods of measuring soil permeability in the field, looking at them from the point of view of the hydrologist.

In the first part they describe new equipment built by the ORSTOM Centre in Lome, Togo, to apply the Muntz method of vertical infiltration under constant head, equipment using a double cylinder and semi-automatic regulation of the discharge.

In the second part, the authors make a mathematical analysis of the Porchet method of horizontal infiltration in a borehole full of water: they show that results may be interpreted even with heterogeneous (multi-layered) soils and that the calculations are simplified using a computer programme.

In conclusion they deal with some results of measurements obtained by the two methods, and examine their accuracy and their correlation with the physical and hydrodynamics characteristics of the soils.     

新疆地震烈度衰减关系模型参数拟合

By using the existing historical earthquake investigation data in Xinjiang,this paper obtained the envelope curves of isoseismal maps of 103 destructive earthquakes occurring from 1716 to 2010 after digitization of the data. The author summarized the seismic intensity attenuation laws in the Xinjiang region with the multiple regression fitting method. The intensity attenuation function of the elliptical model was provided and the fitting results in different periods and areas were compared. Finally, the intensity attenuation relationship in the Xinjiang region was obtained by the method of constraining the start and end of the attenuation curves.     

天津近海海域隐伏断裂地震危险性评价1

Based on faults surveying and research data in the Tianjin offshore areas, through studying tectonic structure, Quaternary activity, deep structure, stress and strain fields and seismicity in the Tianjin offshore areas, the activity and tectonic features of the faults are determined synthetically. Using seismo-geological data, and the historical and modern seismicity data, the frequency-magnitude relationship model normalized by 500a is established and based on the relationship between the upper limit of maximum magnitude Mu and at/b, the maximum magnitudes of the sea section of the Haihe river fault and the Haiyi fault are calculated. Then Poisson probability model is adopted and the quantitative parameters, such as the maximum magnitude, occurrence probability, recurrence cycle of the faults in the south Tianjin offshore areas in the coming 50 - 200a, are calculated.     

A prediction model for horizontal run-out distance of landslides triggered by Wenchuan earthquake

The peak ground acceleration (PGA), the volume of a sliding mass V, the height of a mountain H _L and the slope angle θ of a mountain are four important parameters affecting the horizontal run-out distance of a landslide L. Correlations among them are studied statistically based on field investigations from 67 landslides triggered by the ground shaking and other factors during the Wenchuan earthquake, and then a prediction model for horizontal run-out distance L is developed in this study. This model gives due consideration to the implications of the above four parameters on the horizontal run-out distance L and the validity of the model is verified by the Donghekou and Magong Woqian landslides. At the same time, the advantages of the model are shown by comparing it with two other common prediction methods. The major findings drawn from the analyses and comparisons are: (1) an exponential relationship exists between L and log V, L and log H _L, L and log PGA separately, but a negative exponential relationship exists between L and log tanθ, which agrees with the statistical results; and (2) according to the analysis results of the relative relationship between the height of a mountain (H) and the place where the landslides occur, the probabilities at distances of 2H/3-H, H/3-2H/3, and 0-H/3 are 70.8%, 15.4%, and 13.8%, respectively, revealing that most landslides occurred at a distance of H/2-H. This prediction model can provide an effective technical support for the prevention and mitigation of landslide hazards.     

Estimation of sub-annual inter-catchment groundwater flow using short-term water balance method

Predicting inter-catchment groundwater flow (IGF) is essential because IGF greatly affects stream water discharge and water chemistry. However, methods for estimating sub-annual IGF and clarifying its mechanisms using minimal data are limited. Thus, we quantified the sub-annual IGF and elucidated its driving factors using the short-term water balance method (STWB) for three forest headwater catchments in Japan (named here catchment A, B and As). Our previous study using the chloride mass balance indicated that annual IGF of catchment A (49.0 ha) can be negligible. Therefore, we calculated the daily evapotranspiration (ET) rate using the Priestley–Taylor expression and the 5-year water balance in catchment A (2010–2014). The sub-annual IGF of the three catchments was then calculated by subtracting the ET rate from the difference between rainfall and stream discharge during the sub-annual water balance periods selected using the STWB. The IGF rates of catchment B (7.0 ha), which is adjacent to catchment A, were positive in most cases, indicating that more groundwater flowed out of the catchment than into it, and exhibited positive linear relationships with rainfall and stream discharge. This suggested that as the catchments became wetter, more groundwater flowed out of catchment B. Conversely, the IGF rates of catchment As (5.3 ha), included in catchment A, were negative in most cases, indicating that more groundwater flowed into the catchment than out from it, and exhibited negative linear relationships with rainfall and stream discharge. Given the topography of the catchments studied, infiltration into the bedrock was the probable reason for the IGF outflow from catchment B. We hypothesized that in catchment As, the discrepancy between the actual hydrological boundary and the surface topographic boundary could have caused an IGF inflow. This study provides a useful tool for determining an IGF model structure to be incorporated into rainfall-runoff models.