Integration of remote sensing data into hydrological models for reservoir management

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present the methodology set up to derive catchment soil moisture from Earth Observation (EO) data using microwave spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images from ERS satellites and to study the improvements brought about by an assimilation of this information into hydrological models. The methodology used to derive EO data is based on the appropriate selection of land cover types for which the radar signal is mainly sensitive to soil moisture variations. Then a hydrological model is chosen, which can take advantage of the new information brought by remote sensing. The assimilation of soil moisture deduced from EO data into hydrological models is based principally on model parameter updating. The main assumption of this method is that the better the model simulates the current hydrological system, the better the following forecast will be. Another methodology used is a sequential one based on Kalman filtering. These methods have been put forward for use in the European AIMWATER project on the Seine catchment upstream of Paris (France) where dams are operated to alleviate floods in the Paris area.     

三峡水库汛期控制水位及运用条件

随着长江上游梯级水库的陆续建成投运，三峡水库的水文情势和功能需求与设计条件相比发生了显著变化，仍维持固定的汛限水位运行已不能适应新形势需求。本文通过辨析三峡水库设计阶段汛限水位的设置条件，挖掘流域洪水特性和洪水遭遇规律，论证三峡水库汛期运行水位动态控制的可行性。结果表明：① 三峡水库设计推求的汛限水位145 m的适用条件是应对流域性大洪水，而流域性洪水发生概率小且特征明显，可以通过水文水情分析提前预判。② 根据流域洪水类型、洪水分期和遭遇规律，预判发生区域性大洪水时，三峡水库6月初至梅雨期结束汛限水位按145 m设置，从梅雨期结束后逐渐提高水位，8月20日后过渡到155 m。③ 在考虑上游水库群联合调度和气象水文预报的配合下，正常年份三峡水库汛期运行水位可在155 m上下浮动，并考虑提前蓄水。④ 三峡水库汛期运行水位动态控制，不会增加防洪风险和库区淤积风险，对中下游江湖关系和水文情势有利，可显著提高发电、航运、生态保护和供水等综合利用效益。     

Estimation of tsunami hazard from volcanic activity — Suggested methodology with Augustine volcano,Alaska as an example

A general approach for the estimation of tsunami height and hazard in the vicinity of active volcanoes has been developed. An empirical relationship has been developed to estimate the height of the tsunami generated for an eruption of a given size. This relationship can be used to estimate the tsunami hazard based on the frequency of eruptive activity of a particular volcano. This technique is then applied to the estimation of tsunami hazard from the eruption of the Augustine volcano in Alaska. Modification of this approach to account for a less than satisfactory data base and differing volcanic characteristics is also discussed with the case of the Augustine volcano as an example. This approach can be used elsewhere with only slight modifications and, for the first time, provides a technique to estimate tsunami hazard from volcanic activity, similar to a well-established approach for the estimation of tsunami hazard from earthquake activity.     

Evaluation of rainfall-runoff performance using the stochastic integral equation method

The stochastic integral equation method (S.I.E.M.) is used to evaluate the relative performance of a set of both calibrated and uncalibrated rainfall-runoff models with respect to prediction errors. The S.I.E.M. is also used to estimate confidence (prediction) interval values of a runoff criterion variable, given a prescribed rainfall-runoff model, and a similarity measure used to condition the storms that are utilized for model calibration purposes.Because of the increasing attention given to the issue of uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modeling estimates, the S.I.E.M. provides a promising tool for the hydrologist to consider in both research and design.     

我国部份地区雷暴活动、大气电场等与太阳活动的关系

本文用时序迭加法统计分析了1976—1985年太阳黑子一个完整周期内太阳活动与雷暴活动及地面大气电场之间的可能相关性。结果表明:高纬度地区有较好的相关性,耀斑爆发以后雷暴指数有明显增大趋势,最大关联日在+5日以后。中、低纬度地区几乎不存在相关性。随着耀斑强度增强,相关性也增大,且影响区域从高纬度向中、低纬度移动。在耀斑爆发后2天左右,地面电场强度增大,其关联日比雷暴指数提前。太阳黑子数和雷暴活动之间的相关性很微弱。本文又从全球电路概念出发,简单地解释了形成上述相关性的可能原因。     

地幔平衡部分熔融和岩浆分离结晶成因岩浆岩的判别

本文在讨论Ⅰ型（地幔平衡部分熔融成因）和Ⅱ型（岩浆分离结晶成因）岩浆岩元素丰度关系公式的基础上，建立了Ⅰ型和Ⅱ型岩浆岩系成因判别公式及判别法则。     

空间数据的拓扑关系及其自动生成

本文讨论了空间数据的拓扑关系,对地图的基本图形元素作了更准确的表述;详细介绍和讨论了自动生成空间数据拓扑关系的原理和方法,重点研究和探讨了并列和嵌套的面域拓扑关系。本文所述的方法适用于多种复杂的空间实体关系。     

人工植被和流动沙丘近地面层湍流通量的计算

提出了由Ｂｕｓｉｎｇｅｒ建议的无量纲廓线通用函数形式的近地面层稳定度参数ζ的相似方程分析解。代替了以往采用数值迭代法求ζ，并应用于沙漠人工植被和裸露流动沙丘上的实例资料分析。采用目前广泛应用的空气动力学方法，分别计算了动量和热量交换系数，感热和潜热通量，并由波文比－能量平衡方法进行了验证。结果表明：采用Ｂｕｓｉｎｇｅｒ无量纲通量廓线关系形式的近地面层稳定度参数ζ的相似方程分析解，代替以往惯用的数值     

普里兹湾及其邻近海域晶磷虾的生态特点研究

198 9/1 990年和 1 990 /1 991年南极夏季在普里兹湾及其邻近海域进行了拖网调查 ,对这一海域晶磷虾 (Euphausia crystallorophias)幼体和成体的数量分布、发育特点、成体的体长 -频数分布以及体长与体重的关系等进行了研究。晶磷虾的近岸性分布特点非常明显 ,幼体和成体均分布在 1 0 0 0米等深线以浅的水域。在陆架区晶磷虾是优势种 ,其幼体和成体的数量远远高于其他种类的磷虾。幼体密度在 70 - 44 3 6 5个 /1 0 0 0米 3之间 ,平均为 942 8个 /1 0 0 0米 3 ;成体及未成体密度在 1 0 - 2 0 3个 /1 0 0 0米 3 之间 ,平均为 5 7个 /1 0 0 0米 3 。1 990年 1月份幼体发育期组成为 N1 - C3 ,其中C1占优势 ,平均发育期指数在 4.1 2 - 5 .0 7之间 ;2 - 3月份发育期组成为 C1 - F3 ,F1 ,F2占优势 ,平均发育期指数在 6 .98- 7.81之间。1 991年 1月份幼体发育期组成为 N1 - C2 ,平均发育期指数为 2 .71 - 3 .6 3 ,MN占优势。未成体体长在 1 7毫米以下。成体体长在 1 7- 3 7毫米之间 ,主要分布在 2 2 - 3 1毫米体长段。大于 2 8- 3 0毫米的体长段里雌性成体的比例大于雄性成体。雌性成体的体重与体长的关系为 :Log W(毫克 ) =3 .0 1 L og L(毫米 ) - 2 .1 4,(n=2 83 ,r=0 .83 ) ;雄性成体的体重与体长的关系为 :L     

Field survey of the East Java earthquake and tsunami of June 3, 1994

A field survey of the June 3, 1994 East Java earthquake tsunami was conducted within three weeks, and the distributions of the seismic intensities, tsunami heights, and human and house damages were surveyed. The seismic intensities on the south coasts of Java and Bali Islands were small for an earthquake with magnitudeM 7.6. The earthquake caused no land damage. About 40 minutes after the main shock, a huge tsunami attacked the coasts, several villages in East Java Province were damaged severely, and 223 persons perished. At Pancer Village about 70 percent of the houses were swept away and 121 persons were killed by the tsunami. The relationship between tsunami heights and distances from the source shows that the Hatori's tsunami magnitude wasm=3, which seems to be larger for the earthquake magnitude. But we should not consider this an extraordinary event because it was pointed out byHatori (1994) that the magnitudes of tsunamis in the Indonesia-Philippine region generally exceed 1–2 grade larger than those of other regions.