Characteristics of intensity change in tropical cyclones affecting the South China Sea from 1977 to 2007

The best track data of tropical cyclones (TCs) provided by Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo for the South China Sea (SCS) from 1977 to 2007 are employed to study the spatiotemporal variations (for a period of 12 hours) and the rapid (slow) intensification (RI/SI) of TCs with different intensity. The main results are as follows. (1) Over this period, the tropical storms (TSs) and severe tropical storms (STSs) mostly intensify or are steady while the typhoons (TYs) mostly weaken. The stronger a TC is initially, the more observation of its intensification and the less its variability will be; the more observation of its weakening is, the larger its variability will be. (2) The TC intensifies the fastest at 0000 UTC while weakening the fastest at 1200 UTC. (3) In the intensifying state, TSs, STSs, and TYs are mainly active in the northeastern, central-eastern, and central SCS respectively. The weakening cases mainly distribute over waters east off Hainan Island and Vietnam and west off the Philippines. Some cases of TSs and STSs weaken over the central SCS. (4) The RI cases form farther south in contrast to the SI cases. The RI cases are observed in regions where there are weaker vertical shear and easterly components at 200 hPa. The RI cases also have stronger mid-and lower-level warm-core structure and smaller radii of 15.4 m/s winds. The SI cases have slightly higher SST.     

一次东风波暴雨过程诊断分析

利用常规气象资料和NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,结合自动站加密资料对2009年9月29日20:00至10月1日20:00发生在浙江东部沿海的一次东风波暴雨过程进行了分析.结果发现:0916号台风"凯萨娜"外围环流为此次东风波的形成提供了扰动作用,副热带高压的加强使得低层形成了明显的东南急流,为暴雨或强降水的发生提供了...     

2010年浙南地区一次暴雨过程诊断分析

利用常规观测资料、中尺度自动站加密资料、多普勒雷达资料和NCEP1°×1°再兮析资料．对2010年5周8曲日发生在浙南的一次暴雨过程进行了诊断分析,结果发现：此次暴雨是在横槽转竖的大背景下,西风槽和高原槽东移合并加强,并在东移过程中与低层切变共同作用造成的;低空急流的形成在水汽的输送和聚集过程中发挥了重要作用;暴雨过程...     

1954-2010年商丘降水变化趋势及突变分析

利用线性回归、Mann-Kendall等方法,对商丘站1953年12月-2010年11月的年、季降水资料进行趋势分析、突变检验。结果显示：年、季降水量线性变化趋势均不显著,年降水量、冬夏季降水量在增加,春秋季降水量略有减少。年降水量在2003年,冬季降水量在1997年、春季降水量在1992年、夏季降水量在2003年、秋...     

南宁市蔗糖行业人工增雨服务效益调查评估

分析了南宁市种植甘蔗的气候适应性,以及降雨量与甘蔗生长、蔗茎产量及含糖量的关系,并对比分析了为南宁糖业股份有限公司所属蔗区实施人工增雨前后的甘蔗产量及蔗糖分,认为蔗糖分前后变化不大,但实施人工增雨后甘蔗产量有较显著提高,从而能获得令人满意的经济效益;在此基础上提出了做好人工增雨工作的改进思路。     

近40a中国不同量级降水对年降水量变化的影响性分析

采用1968-2007年全国595个气象台站的日降水资料,将降水量分为0．1～9．9mm、10～24．9mm、25～49．9mm和≥50mm共4个不同量级降水,通过趋势系数等统计诊断方法,分析了年雨日与年降水量相关性、年雨日与日平均降水强度的变化趋势、不同量级降水的日数和强度的变化趋势以及它们分别对年降水量变化的影响。...     

The Possible Mechanism of a Type of Vortex Heavy Rainfall during the Pre-Rainy Season in South China

In this paper,NCEP reanalysis data,intensive observation data collected from field experiment,model simulation data,and topographic trial data are fully analyzed to study a severe heavy rainfall event during 5 6 June 2008 in South China.Unlike most warm region rainfall cases,this one is associated with an obvious vortex system,which draws in water vapor and energy from the southwest monsoon surges ahead of a low trough above the Bengal Bay (BLT,Bengal Low Trough).At the lower troposphere,three currents,especially the southwest current and the east current,converge into the southeast of the vortex.Thus,the distributions of strong vorticity,water vapor,and ascending motion cause frequently occurrence and growth of convection there.The possible reasons for this rainfall event are summarized as a conceptual model.     

Modeled Influence of East Asian Black Carbon on Inter-Decadal Shifts in East China Summer Rainfall

Two inter-decadal shifts in East China summer rainfall during the last three decades of the 20th century have been identified.One shift occurred in the late 1970s and featured more rainfall in the Yangtze River valley and prolonged drought in North China.The other shift occurred in the early 1990s and featured increased rainfall in South China.The role of black carbon(BC) aerosol in the first shift event is controversial,and it has not been documented for the second event.In this study,the authors used Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's(GFDL's) atmospheric general circulation model known as Atmosphere and Land Model(AM2.1) ,which has been shown to capture East Asian climate variability well,to investigate these issues by conducting sensitive experiments with or without historical BC in East Asia. The results suggest that the model reproduces the first shift well,including intensified rainfall in the Yangtze River and weakened monsoonal circulation.However,the model captures only a fraction of the observed variations for the second shift event.Thus,the role of BC in modulating the two shift events is different,and its impact is relatively less important for the early 1990s event.     

不同海域影响热带气旋强度变化的环境动力因素对比

利用1982-2007年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、月平均海平面温度(SST)资料和西北太平洋、北大西洋以及北印度洋热带气旋(TC)资料,对比分析了环境动力因素对不同海域TC强度在不同时间尺度变化的影响.结果表明,在各时间尺度上,TC强度变化与垂直风切变变化有密切的联系.在西北太平洋,使TC过程强度增强或减弱的风切变...     

山洪灾害监测雨量站网密度分析探讨

暴雨是诱发山洪的主要原因,雨量监测站网的布设至关重要。本文采用抽站法和流域水文模型法对江西遂川江流域雨量站网密度进行了分析研究,得出允许误差控制下的最少监测站数量。对比分析站网密度公式计算结果,大流域内的子流域区划对雨量站数量有很大影响。综合考虑流域特征、地形起伏及流域内人口密度、社会经济水平等因素修正的站网密度公式,为无资料地区山洪监测预警系统建设提供参考。