Seismic hazard assessment in the Ionian Islands based on observed macroseismic intensities

Catalogues of actual observed intensities are constructed for three towns in the Ionian Islands. They are used for seismic hazard assessment and the results are compared with those obtained by standard approaches; that is, by statistics applied to the data computed from epicentral parameters. The results show that seismic hazard is better assessed using observed rather than computed data, but preparation of the local catalogue presents non-trivial difficulties.     

水库诱发地震的地震动特征

利用新丰江、美国奥洛维尔和蒙蒂赛洛水库地震极近场地面运动资料，研究了水库诱发地震的地震动峰值加速度衰减。结果表明，水库地震的峰值加速度高，衰减快。利用国内水库地震资料研究了水库地震烈度。水库地震烈度与同级天然地震烈度相比，一般是烈度高，衰减慢。水库地震的地震动反应谱频率高，地震动持续时间短     

2003年5月4日新疆伽师-岳普湖5.8级地震烈度分布及建筑物结构破坏特点

新疆伽师-岳普湖5．8级地震宏观震中位于岳普湖县的铁热木乡和兵团农三师42团的北面，震中烈度为Ⅶ度。本次地震影响范围位于巴楚-伽师6．8级地震Ⅵ-Ⅶ度影响区域内，累计破坏效应造成了较为严重的房屋破坏。通过对大量震害资料和强震记录的分析，根据建筑物的破坏情况和场地峰值加速度衰减特征，在尽可能排除累计破坏效应的基础上确定了地震烈度分布，分析了不同烈度区中的建筑物结构破坏特点及其与地震动影响场的关系。     

Study on the correlativity of earthquakes impact on cities

Introduction With rapid development and advancement of economy and society, lots of city groups or city belts with ex-tra-large cities as their centers have been formed in China. The regions these city groups lie in usually have well-developed economy, dense population, and are regional politics and culture centers. Some groups lie in the regions with high level of earthquake activity, such as the Surrounding Capital City Group with the centers of Bei-jing and Tianjin. Once a large earthqua…     

EFFECTS OF THREE KINDS OF PHYSICAL PROCESSES ON TYPHOON INTENSITY*

This paper designs three quasi-geostrophic barotropic models with a radial/horizontal grid length being 2 kin,one in the polar coordinates,one on a stationary typhoon circulation condition and another on a non-stationary typhoon circulation condition in the Cartesian coordinates,to investigate the effects of azimuthal and radial linear advections,and nonlinear advection on the inward propagation of mesoscale vorticity and the changes of typhoon intensity.Results show that the azimuthal linear advection may result in the formation of spiral vorticity bands;the radial linear advection in a certain parameter set is able to transfer vorticity inwards,leading to a slight enhancement of typhoon;the nonlinear advection of perturbation vorticity on a stationary typhoon circulation condition may transfer more vorticities inwards,thus resulting in a distinct enhancement of typhoon;and the nonlinear advection on a non-stationary typhoon circulation condition possesses duality,i.e.on the one hand,the advection increases the vorticity of inward propagation,thus favorable to the intensification of typhoon,and on the other hand,in the inward propagation process of vorticity the originally concentric and axisymmetric structure of typhoon basic flow is damaged,and a complex flow pattern forms,which in turn tends to weaken the circulation of typhoon.At last the paper discusses the possible applications of those results in typhoon intensity prediction.     

Design Earthquakes in the U.K.

Three sites in the UK are taken, representative of low, medium and high hazard levels (by UK standards). For each site, the hazard value at 10⁻⁴ annual probability is computed using a generic seismic source model, and a variety of ground motion parameters: peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration at 10 Hz and 1 Hz, and intensity. Disaggregation is used to determine the nature of the earthquakes most likely to generate these hazard values. It is found (as might be expected) that the populations are quite different according to which ground motion parameter is used. When PGA is used, the result is a rather flat magnitude distribution with a tendency to low magnitude events (\le 4.5 ML) which are probably not really hazardous. Hazard-consistent scenario earthquakes computed using intensity are found to be in the range 5.8–5.9 ML, which is more in accord with the type of earthquake that one expects to be a worst-case event in the UK. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Analysis of crack movements observed in an alpine bedrock cliff

Crack widths and rock temperatures were monitored on an andestic bedrock cliff in the summit area of the Daisetsu Mountains, Hokkaido, northern Japan. Sequential data recorded the gradual widening of a crack to the point of critical crack extension, which resulted in catastrophic rock breakage. The data indicate that a combination of liquid water in?ltration into crack tip and subsequent freezing is the most signi?cant factor contributing to critical crack extension. The recorded sub‐critical crack movements involved a number of minor crack extensions and contractions, the timing of which correlates well with the magnitude of the reconstructed thermal stresses at the crack tip derived from thermal deformation of the plate‐shaped rock fragment. Larger crack extensions occurred when stress at the crack tip exceeded a threshold value, possibly re?ecting the control of rock fracture mechanics by which cracks are thought to propagate when the stress intensity factor at the crack tip exceeds the threshold values for stress corrosion cracking and the fracture toughness of the material. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

山西省主要河流流域面雨量预报业务流程

以T213、HLAFS模式、MM5中尺度模式输出的格点资料以及日本降水量格点资料为基础，将影响山西降水的天气动力模型归纳为诊断模型，从中引出多个能够全面反映降水模型特征的综合物理因子；根据各种数值模式输出的降水量预报性能和质量优劣特点，依据数值模式的形势场预报优于要素场预报的现实，构造在不同环流形势背景下，启动不同预报方程的面雨量预报业务流程，有效地遏止了在环流形势调整时预报输出不能快速响应的弱点，提高了点和面雨量预报的准确度。     

2003年7月上旬张家界特大暴雨山洪分析

对造成 2 0 0 3年 7月 8～ 1 0日张家界特大暴雨山洪的主要影响系统、物理量诊断场资料、多普勒雷达回波资料及自动气象站要素进行了分析 ,并重点分析了张家界特定的地形条件对降水的增幅作用及暴雨的夜发特征 ,为湘西北的暴雨山洪预报提供了一些有益的启示。