中国大陆西部及邻区板内8级大地震活动过程和趋势预测初步研究

中国大陆西部及邻区是全球 8级大地震最为活跃的地区之一。自 180 0年以来该区板内 8级大地震共发生了 16次 ,2 0 0 1年昆仑山口西 8.1级大地震 (36 .1°N ,90 .9°E)是在 195 7年蒙古 8.3级大地震之后 4 4a发生的。研究表明该区 8级大地震的活动过程可能存在相对平静 (1812— 190 2年 )和相对活跃 (190 3— 195 7年 )交替的幕式或轮回过程的性质。 195 7年蒙古地震之后可能是一次新的轮回开始 ,2 0 0 1年昆仑山口西地震是新轮回的第二次地震 ,按照轮回过程中事件发生频度是时间的指数函数关系的假定 ,该区下一次 8级大地震可能约在 2 0 2 6年发生。如果假定该过程相当接近泊松过程。那么 ,在 2 0 0 5 ,2 0 10年和 2 0 15年前至少发生一次 8级大地震的泊松概率 ,分别是 0 .2 9,0 .5 3和 0 .70。     

海洋天然气水合物的地球物理研究(III):似海底反射

对天然气水合物研究中与似海底反射有关的一些观点进行讨论 ,以推动天然气水合物地震研究的认识 .30年的似海底反射研究表明 ,似海底反射仍然是指示天然气水合物沉积存在的最好手段之一 .有似海底反射 ,是可以认为存在天然气水合物的 .虽然存在“游离气带速度模型”与“水合物楔速度模型” ,但似海底反射主要由天然气水合物稳定带底界下方的游离气引起 .BSR上方的天然气水合物、下方的游离气与天然气再循环和含甲烷的流体流有关 .由于天然气水合物稳定带计算控制因素难以准确确定等因素 ,似海底反射与天然气水合物稳定带底界只是近似的对应关系 .需从动态的观点考虑天然气水合物 天然气体系及其与似海底反射的关系 .     

天然气水合物体系动态演化研究（I）：地质历史演变

1995年Dickens对55．5Ma前古新世末增温事件进行了研究，提出天然气水合物作为全球环境变化重要因子的假说．认为古新世末增温事件溶解无机碳-2～-3‰的^13δC位移可以用水合物所含甲烷的释放与随后氧化成二氧化碳来解释．此后，地质历史演变中的天然气水合物演化研究蓬勃发展，本文总结古新世末增温事件、新元古代末期雪球事件、第四纪千年尺度事件等最新进展，为天然气水合物动态演化研究提供基础．开展天然气水合物-天然气体系动态演化过程数值模拟与特征分析，可望促进天然气水合物在全球变化与碳循环中作用的深入认识．     

Petrography and uplift history of the Quaternary Takidani Granodiorite: could it have hosted a supercritical (HDR) geothermal reservoir?

The Quaternary Takidani Granodiorite (Japan Alps) is analogous to the type of deep-seated (3–5 km deep) intrusive-hosted fracture network system that might support (supercritical) hot dry/wet rock (HDR/HWR) energy extraction. The I-type Takidani Granodiorite comprises: porphyritic granodiorite, porphyritic granite, biotite-hornblende granodiorite, hornblende-biotite granodiorite, biotite-hornblende granite and biotite granite facies; the intrusion has a reverse chemical zonation, characterized by >70 wt% SiO₂ at its inferred margin and <67 wt% SiO₂ at the core. Fluid inclusion evidence indicates that fractured Takidani Granodiorite at one time hosted a liquid-dominated, convective hydrothermal system, with <380°C, low-salinity reservoir fluids at hydrostatic (mesothermal) pressure conditions. ‘Healed’ microfractures also trapped >600°C, hypersaline (35 wt% NaCl_eq) fluids of magmatic origin, with inferred minimum pressures of formation being 600–750 bar, which corresponds to fluid entrapment at 2.4–3.0 km depth. Al-in-hornblende geobarometry indicates that hornblende crystallization occurred at about 1.45 Ma (7.7–9.4 km depth) in the (marginal) eastern Takidani Granodiorite, but later (at 1.25 Ma) and shallower (6.5–7.0 km) near the core of the intrusion. The average rate of uplift across the Takidani Granodiorite from the time of hornblende crystallization has been 5.1–5.9 mm/yr (although uplift was about 7.5 mm/yr prior to 1.2 Ma), which is faster than average uplift rates in the Japan Alps (3 mm/yr during the last 2 million years). A temperature–depth–time window, when the Takidani Granodiorite had potential to host an HDR system, would have been when the internal temperature of the intrusive was cooling from 500°C to 400°C. Taking into account the initial (7.5 mm/yr) rate of uplift and effects of erosion, an optimal temperature–time–depth window is proposed: for 500°C at 1.54–1.57 Ma and 5.2±0.9 km (drilling) depth; and 400°C at 1.36–1.38 Ma and 3.3±0.8 km (drilling) depth, which is within the capabilities of modern drilling technologies, and similar to measured temperature–depth profiles in other active hydrothermal systems (e.g. at Kakkonda, Japan).     

Carbon dioxide and radon gas hazard in the Alban Hills area (central Italy)

The sudden and catastrophic, or slow and continuous, release at surface of naturally occurring toxic gases like CO₂, H₂S and Rn poses a serious health risk to people living in geologically active regions. In general this problem receives little attention from local governments, although public concern is raised periodically when anomalous toxic-gas concentrations suddenly kill humans or livestock. For example, elevated CO₂ concentrations have been linked to the death of at least 10 people in the central Italian region of Lazio over the last 20 years, while it was the CO₂ asphyxiation of 30 cows in a heavily populated area near Rome in 1999 which prompted the present soil-gas study into the distribution of the local health risk. A detailed geochemical survey was carried out in an area of about 4 km² in the Ciampino and Marino districts, whereby a total of 274 soil-gas samples were collected and analysed for more than 10 major and trace gas species. Data were then processed using both statistical and geostatistical methods, and the resulting maps were examined in order to highlight areas of elevated risk. General trends of elevated CO₂ and Rn concentrations imply the presence of preferential pathways (i.e. faults and fractures) along which deep gases are able to migrate towards the surface. The CO₂ and Rn anomalous trends often correspond to and are usually elongated parallel to the Apennine mountain range, the controlling structural feature in central Italy. Because of this fundamental anisotropy in the factors controlling the soil-gas distribution, it was found that a geostatistical approach using variogram analysis allowed for a better interpretation of the data. With regard to the health risk to local inhabitants, it was found that although some high risk areas had been zoned as parkland, others had been heavily developed for residential purposes. For example, many new houses were found to have been built on ground which has soil-gas CO₂ concentrations of more than 70% and radon values of more than 250 kBq m⁻³. It is recommended that land-use planners incorporate soil-gas and/or gas flux measurements in environmental assessments in areas of possible risk (i.e. volcanic or structurally active areas).     

Seismic risk assessments and GIS technology: applications to infrastructures in the Friuli–Venezia Giulia region (NE Italy)

This paper illustrates the seismic risk preliminary estimates of two different groups of structures located on the territory of the Friuli–Venezia Giulia region (NE Italy) : the first group includes some special industrial plants, and the second group includes bridges and tunnels belonging to the regional highway network. The part of the study on special industrial plants tries to evaluate the degree of expected damage, taking into account their structural typology and ground shaking expressed in terms of macroseismic intensity. The second part of the study is an application of the HAZUS methodology to the tunnels and bridges of a highway network: the combination of expected ground shaking and the construction characteristics lead to very different risk levels, especially when considering the bridges. The resulting damage levels to bridges and tunnels are still only indicative because of the fragility curves used in the evaluations: they were developed for existing bridge and tunnel structural typologies in the U.S.A. Moreover, both examples show the power of GIS technology in storing, elaborating, and mapping spatial data. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

鄂尔多斯盆地苏里格庙与靖边天然气单体碳同位素特征及其成因

苏里格庙上古生界砂岩气藏天然气重烃含量高,干燥系数低,为湿气;靖边奥陶系风化壳气藏天然气重烃含量低,干燥系数高,属干气。苏里格庙天然气的正构烷烃碳同位素具有δ13 C₁<δ13 C₃ <δ13 C₂ <δ13 C4的规律,靖边天然气具有δ13 C₁<δ13 C₂ <δ13 C₃ 的规律。二者高碳数烷烃的同位素差别较大,尤其是苏里格庙的乙烷碳同位素比靖边平均重 3.6‰。根据天然气单体碳同位素及其含量变化,苏里格庙天然气属煤成气,靖边天然气属煤成气与油型气的混合气。苏里格庙和靖边天然气中均含少量CO₂ 气,其碳同位素表明苏里格庙除苏 5井为无机CO₂ 气外,均为有机CO₂ 气;靖边林 1、林 5井为无机CO₂ 气,陕参 1井为有机CO₂ 气。结合烷烃气和CO₂ 气,苏里格庙天然气可以分为含有机CO₂ 煤成气和含无机CO₂ 煤成气。碳同位素比值与Ro 关系分析认为,苏里格庙的天然气成熟度处于成熟到高成熟阶段,其相应气源岩的平均Ro 为 1.2 9%～ 1.39%,这一结果与该区二叠系煤岩的成熟度符合较好。     

煤岩显微组分热解气相色谱特征与化学结构剖析

煤结构是目前地球化学研究领域中的一个难点，但却具有极其重要的理论及实际意义，本文采用分步热解气相色谱技术将树皮体，镜质体和丝质体分解为分子量较小的可测定的有机化合物，在此基础上，据不同温度下热解产物的组成特征来还原显微组分的化学结构，实验结果表明，煤显微组分主要由四大类官能团组成，一是热稳定性较低的NOS杂原子官能团；二是脂族（脂链、脂环）结构；三是苯、烷基苯（甲苯、二甲苯）、萘等芳香族化合物，四是热稳定性很高的难以分解的稠环芳烃。上述四类化合物集中于显微组分的不同结构简单中，树皮体和镜质体结构单元外侧主要由热稳定性较低的杂原子化合物以及分子量较小的苯和烷基苯组成，而丝质体结构单元外侧则主要以短链脂族结构为主，三组分结构核部由热稳定性很高的难以分解的稠环芳烃组成。连结核部稠环芳烃与结构单元外侧杂原子等官能团的主要是热稳定性较高的脂链结构，煤显微组分热成烃主要按结构中各官能团键的强弱随热演化程度的加深依次脱除，生成油气，基本上属平行独立依次反应机制，亦“官能团脱除型”，此外，还包括少量的长链脂族结构裂解为短链脂肪烃的“解聚”过程。     

辽宁宽甸新生代火山岩和地幔包体He-Ar同位素组成

宽甸新生代碱性玄武岩、地幔包体及辉石巨晶的稀有气体同位素组成和流体含量分析表明，不同岩性稀有气体含量的差异反映了岩浆作用过程中轻、重稀有气体的分馏特性，较轻的稀有气体(He、Ne)比较重的稀有气体(Kr、Xe)具有更高的活动性和不相容性；该地区上地幔源区具有典型的MORB型源区特征，以辉石巨晶为代表；地幔包体的3^He／^4He值较低，可能与地幔上隆过程中富集地幔流体的交代作用或地幔塑性变形作用丢失了部分原始He有关；大陆碱性玄武岩具有与大洋玄武岩截然不同的He同位素组成，反映了大陆区地幔岩浆上升过程中受到了陆壳物质混染。地幔源区^40Ar／^36Ar值为350左右，二辉橄榄岩和碱性火山岩的^40Ar／^36Ar值比大气略高，可能有大气组分的混入。部分样品中有^21Ne、^22Ne、^129Xe、^134Xe和^136Xe相对于大气的过剩现象。