河流水质风险评价的灰色-随机风险率方法

提出了量化影响河流水质的随机不确定性与灰色不确定性的水质超标灰色－随机风险率概念，建立了水质超标灰色－随机风险率评价模型。在水质单项参数评价模型中，将河流污染物浓度变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布，将污染物浓度超过水质类别标准值的风险率处理成灰色概率，即水质超标灰色－随机风险率。在水质综合评价模型中，河流水环境系统被考虑为担任某一使用可能的可靠性系统，而任意一种水质参数超标意味着河流水体使用功能不能得到应有的保证，也即表明水体综合评价超标，最后借鉴系统可靠性分析的理论和方法计算水质综合超标率。该方法应用于黄河花园口断面重金属污染风险评价。     

利用树轮资料重建天山中段南坡巩乃斯地区公元1777年来平均最高气温变化

利用年轮平均灰度年表重建了天山巩乃斯地区自公元1777年来当年5月至8月平均最高气温,方差解释量达41%(调整自由度后为39%).过去232年来,巩乃斯地区平均最高气温变化存在2个偏冷阶段和1个偏暖阶段。重建序列具有154年、77年、2.7年和2.3年的准周期, 并且在1842年前后、1880年前后、1923年前后发生了突变。与北半球平均最高气温网格点资料和多种涛动指数的相关性分析表明,巩乃斯地区平均最高气温变化不仅反映了区域气候变化,对于大范围气候变化也存在一定程度上的响应。     

Natural background levels and threshold values for groundwater in fluvial Pleistocene and Tertiary marine aquifers in Flanders,Belgium

Aquifers from the same typology can have strongly different groundwater chemistry. Deducing the groundwater quality of less well-characterized aquifers from well-documented aquifers belonging to the same typology should be done with great reserve, and can only be considered as a preliminary approach. In the EU’s 6th FP BRIDGE project “Background cRiteria for the IDentification of Groundwater thrEsholds”, a methodology for the derivation of threshold values (TV) for groundwater bodies is proposed. This methodology is tested on four aquifers in Flanders of the sand and gravel typology. The methodology works well for all but the Ledo-Paniselian aquifer, where the subdivision into a fresh and saline part is disproved, as a gradual natural transition from fresh to saline conditions in the aquifer is observed. The 90 percentile is proposed as natural background level (NBL) for the unconfined Pleistocene deposits, ascribing the outliers to possible influence of pollution. For the Tertiary aquifers, high values for different parameters have a natural origin and the 97.7 percentile is preferred as NBL. The methodology leads to high TVs for parameters presenting low NBL, when compared to the standard used as a reference. This would allow for substantial anthropogenic inputs of these parameters.     

CPI values of terrestrial higher plant-derived long-chain n-alkanes: a potential paleoclimatic proxy

Carbon Preference Index (CPI values) of higher plant-derived long-chain n-alkanes extracted from 62 surface soil samples in eastern China exhibited a specific pattern of variations, namely gradual increase with the increasing latitudes. Such regular variations existed in both forest soil and grassland soil. Our data implied that CPI values of higher plant-derived long-chain n-alkanes had a certain connection with climatic conditions, and such a connection was not influenced by vegetation types. Together with previous data from marine sediments, loess/paleosol sequences, tertiary red clay and modern plants, our observation made us conclude that CPI values of higher plant-derived long-chain n-alkanes may be used as an excellent proxy for paleoclimatic studies.     

Robustness of the holistic seismic risk evaluation in urban centers using the USRi

The Urban Seismic Risk index (USRi) published in a previous article (Carreño et al., Nat Hazards 40:137–172, 2007) is a composite indicator that measures risk from an integrated perspective and guides decision-making for identifying the main interdisciplinary factors of vulnerability to be reduced or intervened. The first step of the method is the evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as a result of the convolution of the seismic hazard with the physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects is also considered (soft approach). According to this procedure, the physical risk index is evaluated for each unit of analysis from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by multiplying the former index by an impact factor using an aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. The USRi has been developed using the underlying holistic and multi-hazard approach of the Urban Risk Index framework proposed for the evaluation of disaster risk in different megacities worldwide. This article presents the sensitivity analysis of the index to different parameters such as input data, weights and transformation functions used for the scaling or normalization of variables. This analysis has been performed using the Monte Carlo simulation to validate the robustness of this composite indicator, understanding as robustness how the cities maintain the ranking as well as predefined risk level ranges, when compared with the deterministic results of risk. Results are shown for different cities of the world.     

滇西变泥质岩的白云母b_0值及其构造－地层意义

据３３３个白云母ｂ０值，结合区域地层和构造的研究成果，提出：（１）原称昌宁－孟连变质带解体为西盟－勐统变质带（加里东期中压变质带）和澜沧双变质带的高压亚带，两期高压变质作用分别与海西－印支期的洋壳消减和陆－陆碰撞有关；（２）石鼓变质带是三个逆冲岩片的叠置，各岩片内岩石的变质作用各具特色；（３）金沙江洋盆为地块间小洋盆，其消减及嗣后的弧－弧碰撞可能不产生高压变质作用。在此基础上探讨了白云母ｂ０值在造山带研究中的意义。     

大湾铀矿田铀-镭平衡系数及迁移富集特征研究

从分析大湾铀矿田各矿床(点)的铀镭平衡系数变化特征出发,结合放射性同位素比值特征分析铀镭迁移富集行为,指出了各矿床(点)氧化带的深度,以了解各铀矿床(点)潜在的工业价值.     

型钢高强混凝土柱轴压比限值的试验研究

通过20个型钢高强混凝土柱的低周反复加载试验对其受力性能进行了研究，分析了剪跨比、轴压比、配箍率以及混凝土强度对型钢高强混凝土柱延性的影响，提出了不同剪跨比、不同配箍率的型钢高强混凝土柱的轴压比限值。其中，剪跨比大于2．0的型钢高强混凝土柱的轴压比限值由大、小偏心界限破坏时力的平衡条件并结合试验结果确定，而剪跨比小于2．0的型钢高强混凝土柱的轴压比限值则通过与剪跨比大于2．0的型钢高强混凝土柱的延性对比加以确定。     

川南马边地区强震危险性分析

根据最近34a的区域台网地震资料,利用地震活动性参数b值的空间分布,结合历史强震与现今地震活动背景,分析了川南马边地区主要断裂带的现今活动习性,并初步判别出了潜在的强震危险区域。研究结果表明:1)马边地区的b值空间分布存在明显的空间差异,反映了该区域不同断裂带与断裂段应力积累水平的差异;2)马边-盐津断裂带上存在3个尺度不等的异常低b值区,它们可能是该断裂带上的相对高应力区(或凹凸体),其中位于马边北、沐川西部利店镇附近的凹凸体与位于该断裂带南端盐津附近的凹凸体可能是马边地区未来发生大地震的危险场所,而位于绥江南的小尺度凹凸体有可能是潜在强震的发生地点;3)存在于龙泉山断裂带西南段的凹凸体将是未来发生中强地震的场所;4)金口河-美姑断裂上位于汉源县皇木镇与峨眉山市龙池镇之间的凹凸体存在发生中强地震的可能性     

晋东南辛安泉域地下水水质污染现状及污染成因分析

辛安泉是北方第二大泉，泉域面积１３０００ｋｍ＾２。根据环境水文地质条件，将拉域划分为四个子系统。采用饮用水卫生标准和污染起始值对系统内地下水水质进行评价，并对其污染成因进行了分析。