应用灰色系统理论进行地震灾害等级划分和灾情分析比较

通过对地震时人员死亡、受伤、房屋破坏和直接经济损失４个灾害损失指标的函数转换，使得用不同的损失指标判别灾害等级的标准取得了统一．然后，应用灰色聚类方法划分地震灾害等级，并用灰色关联度排序方法对不同的灾情进行分析比较．同时还对１９６６～１９８３年我国大陆７次重要地震和１９９５年我国大陆１７次地震进行了灾害等级划分和不同灾情的分析比较．结果表明，该方法基本可定量准确地评价地震灾情     

黄河上游径流预报的灰色拓扑方法

以龙羊峡水库年平均入库流量预报为例，根据灰色系统理论的建模方法，利用龙羊峡水库入库水量代表站唐乃亥水文站的实测径流资料，建立了一个ＧＭ（１，１）拓扑预测模型，用于黄河上游径流的长期预报，并取得了较为满意的结果。     

铜经济地质的进展述评

介绍了成矿理论研究的一些新进展和有助于找矿的一些新成果，如奥林匹克坝型铜矿的成因模式、高温、高硅流纹岩及流纹岩石英斑晶氧同位素组成对评价ＶＨＭＳ型铜矿的意义等。理论研究与适当的勘探方法相结合以及锲而不舍的努力是铜矿床尤其是大型、特大型铜矿发现的基本途径。     

The role of diapycnal mixing for the equilibrium response of thermohaline circulation

Using a zonally averaged, one-hemispheric numerical model of the thermohaline circulation, the dependence of the overturning strength on the surface equator-to-pole density difference is investigated. It is found that the qualitative behavior of the thermohaline circulation depends crucially on the nature of the small-scale vertical mixing in the interior of the ocean. Two different representations of this process are considered: constant vertical diffusivity and the case where the rate of mixing energy supply is taken to be a fixed quantity, implying that the vertical diffusivity decreases with increasing stability of the water column. When the stability-dependent diffusivity parameterization is applied, a weaker density difference is associated with a stronger circulation, contrary to the results for a fixed diffusivity. A counterintuitive consequence of the stability-dependent mixing is that the poleward atmospheric freshwater flux, which acts to reduce the thermally imposed density contrast, strengthens the thermally dominated circulation and its attendant poleward heat transport. However, for a critical value of the freshwater forcing, the thermally dominated branch of steady states becomes unstable, and is succeeded by strongly time-dependent states that oscillate between phases of forward and partly reversed circulation. When a constant vertical diffusivity is employed, on the other hand, the thermally dominated circulation is replaced by a steady salinity-dominated state with reversed flow. Thus in this model, the features of the vertical mixing are essential for the steady-state response to freshwater forcing as well as for the character of flow that is attained when the thermally dominated circulation becomes unstable.Responsible Editor: Jin-Song von Storch     

3-D rheologic model of earthquake preparation (II): Strain field and its applications

Introduction Based on the elastic theory of the hard inclusion (Dobrovolskii, 1991), we developed an inclusion theory of rheologic medium, and applied the results of bulk-strain field of a rheologic inclusion model to explain the spatial-temporal evolution process of earthquake precursors (SONG, et al, 2000). In the former paper (SONG, et al, 2003), we derived the viscoelastic displacement field of the rheologic inclusion model on the basis of the analytic expression of displacement field o…     

On the long-term seismic hazard analysis in the Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone, China

The Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone (ZPSZ) lies in the northern part of North China and extends along the Zhangjiakou–Beijing–Tianjin–Bohai Bay–Penglai–Yellow Sea. It is about 900 km long and some 250 km wide in a northwest direction. The great Sanhe-Pinggu (M_S=8.0) earthquake occurred on September 1679 and the Tangshan (M_S=7.8) earthquake on July 1976 caused serious economic and life losses. According to some differences in crust structure and regional tectonic stress field, the ZPSZ is divided into western and eastern segment by the 117°E line for study on long-term seismic hazard analysis. An analysis of Gutenberg–Richter's empirical relation of earthquake-frequency and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments shows that the earthquake activity obeys a Poisson process, and these calculations indicate that the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=6.0–6.9 is 0.77–0.83 in the eastern segment and the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=7.0–7.9 is 0.78–0.80 in the western segment of the ZPSZ during a period from 2005 to 2015.     

The structural role of Ti in aluminosilicate liquids in the glass transition range: insights from heat capacity and shear viscosity measurements

The shear viscosities and 1 bar heat capacities of glasses and melts along the 67mol% silica isopleth in the system SiO₂-Al₂O₃-Na₂O-TiO₂ have been determined in the temperature ranges 780-1140 K and 305-1090 K respectively. Anomalous behaviour of both these properties is observed for compositions rich in TiO₂ and/or Al₂O₃, an observation attributed to liquid-liquid phase separation followed by anatase crystallization. For samples which do not show anomalous behaviour, it is found that the partial molar heat capacity of the TiO₂ component previously determined in Al-free compositions reproduces our heat capacities to within 1.3%. Viscosity data show that addition of TiO₂ tends to increase viscosity and melt fragility at constant temperature. Furthermore, heat capacity and viscosity data may be combined within the framework of the Adam-Gibbs theory to extract values of the configurational entropy of the liquids and qualitative estimates of the variation of the average energy barrier to viscous flow. Configurational entropy at 900K is inferred to decrease upon addition of TiO₂, in contrast to previous results from Al-free systems. The compositional limit separating normal from anomalous behaviour, as well as the data for homogenous melts have been used to constrain the structural role of Ti in these samples. Our data are consistent with a majority of Ti in five-fold coordination associated with a titanyl bond, in agreement with previous spectroscopic studies. Furthermore, we find no evidence for a Ti-Al interaction in our samples, and we are led to the conclusion that Al and Ti are incompletely mixed, a hypothesis consistent with the observed reduction of configurational entropy upon addition of TiO₂, suggesting an important role of medium range order in controlling the variations in thermodynamic properties.     

Regions and sustainable development: regional planning matters

This paper looks at how the term 'sustainable development' has been used in the process of regional plan making over the past decade. It emphasizes the differing geographies of these debates within England, in terms of how sustainable development has been used to justify different types of approach in different parts of the country. Both drawing on and challenging recent work on state theory, the paper argues the need to see regional planning as a part of a multi-scalar governance system, whose importance should not be underestimated.