基于主成分分析和贝叶斯正则化方法的神经网络年最大洪峰流量预测模型探讨

针时水文预测建模中输入因子过多而导致神经网络结构规模过大,泛化能力差的问题,利用主成分分析和贝叶斯正则化方法对神经网络进行改进,优化网络结构,从而提高泛化能力。以洮儿河流域镇西站年最大洪峰流量预测为例,研究结果表明,改进的神经网络预测方法与传统的神经网络方法相比,泛化能力有显著提高,而且网络的收敛也比较稳定,实际预测中效果良好。     

水压致裂地应力测试方法在云南大理-丽江铁路隧道工程中的应用

利用水压致裂地应力测试方法对实际工程区进行了地应力测量,确定了工程区隧道围岩现今的地壳应力状态,即原地应力的大小和方向.根据地应力分布特征,分析了隧道开挖过程中发生岩爆等地质灾害的可能性.地应力测量数据的分析结果可作为隧道衬砌的设计、断面的选择及轴线方位的确定的科学依据.     

Statistical empirical index of chemical weathering in igneous rocks: A new tool for evaluating the degree of weathering

Chemical weathering indices are useful tools in characterizing weathering profiles and determining the extent of weathering. However, the predictive performance of the conventional indices is critically dependent on the composition of the unweathered parent rock. To overcome this limitation, the present paper introduces an alternative statistical empirical index of chemical weathering that is extracted by the principal component analysis (PCA) of a large dataset derived from unweathered igneous rocks and their weathering profiles. The PCA analysis yields two principal components (PC1 and PC2), which capture 39.23% and 35.17% of total variability, respectively. The extent of weathering is reflected by variation along PC1, primarily due to the loss of Na₂O and CaO during weathering. In contrast, PC2 is the direction along which the projections of unweathered felsic, intermediate and mafic igneous rocks appear to be best discriminated; therefore, PC1 and PC2 represent independent latent variables that correspond to the extent of weathering and the chemistry of the unweathered parent rock. Subsequently, PC1 and PC2 were then mapped onto a ternary diagram (MFW diagram). The M and F vertices characterize mafic and felsic rock source, respectively, while the W vertex identifies the degree of weathering of these sources, independent of the chemistry of the unweathered parent rock.

The W index has a number of significant properties that are not found in conventional weathering indices. First, the W index is sensitive to chemical changes that occur during weathering because it is based on eight major oxides, whereas most conventional indices are defined by between two and four oxides. Second, the W index provides robust results even for highly weathered sesquioxide-rich samples. Third, the W index is applicable to a wide range of felsic, intermediate and mafic igneous rock types. Finally, the MFW diagram is expected to facilitate provenance analysis of sedimentary rocks by identifying their weathering trends and thereby enabling a backward estimate of the composition of the unweathered source rock.     

修正的莫尔-库仑理论的解析和验证

根据主应力可分解为静水应力和偏应力,以及它们在应力莫尔圆和变形方面的相关性,推导出修正的莫尔-库仑理论的数学表达式。从理论上解决了库仑理论和莫尔理论存在的许多缺陷,特别是中间主应力对材料抗剪强度的影响。它的四参数准则的计算结果与一些混凝土的试验数据相当吻合。     

一种简化的Helmert方差分量估计算法

Ｈｅｌｍｅｒｔ方法是通过求出两类观测值的单位方差,来修正其先验权,用迭代法最终求得正确的权。本文提出,如果已知两类观测值的单位方差之比,即可定出正确的权,从而使计算简单化。     

TRES-Ⅰ型多分量瑞利波勘探仪的研究及应用

提出多分量瑞利波勘探的技术思想和方法,研制成功专用的防爆型多分量瑞利波勘探仪器,建立了在用极化分析对瑞利波勘探记录的多分量信号分析的基础上,用极化滤波提取有效瑞利波信号的方法。在煤矿井下及地面实际应用表明,多分量瑞利波勘探与单分量法比较,信号的信噪比、勘探深度和可靠性均有一定的提高。     

张北6.2级地震前后地磁Z分量的日变化

利用河北省及邻省、市共１７个地磁台相对观测Ｚ分量资料,总结分析了张北６．２级地震前后的日变化。认为,一次较强地震前可能有多次异常出现,日变反向可作为中短期异常,而后出现的日变低点位移,当分界线连续在某区出现,地震可能进入短临阶段。日变反向的极值区附近和低点位移连续汇集地区可能是未来震中。对于震前出现的多次异常进行追踪预报,可能效果较好。     

比值—特征主成分混合分析提取金矿蚀变信息：以赣南遂川地区为例

在分析与金矿有关的两类蚀变岩的ＴＭ波谱特征的基础上,以赣南遂川地区为实验区,利用比值－特征主成分混合分析进行了金矿蚀变岩信息提取,为找矿预测和野外工作指明了方向。     

An effect of closure on the structure of principal components

The principal components transformation generates, from any data array, a new set of variables—the scores of the components—characterized by a total variance exactly equal to that of the initial set. It is in this sense that the transformed variables are said to contain, preserve, or account for, the variance of the original set. The scores, however, are uncorrelated. In the course of the transformation, what becomes of the strong interdependence of variance and covariance so characteristic of closed arrays? The question seems to have attracted little attention; we are aware of no study of it in the earth sciences. Experimental work reported here shows quite clearly that the overall equivalence of variance and covariance imposed by closure, though absent from the component scores,may emerge in relations between the coefficientsof each of the lower-order components; if the raw data are complete rock analyses, the sum of all the covariances of the coefficients of such a component is negative, and is very nearly equal to the sum of all the variances in absolute value. (In all cases so far examined, the absolute value of the first sum is a little less than that of the second.) The principal components transformation provides an elegant escape from closure correlation if a petrographic problem can be restated entirely in terms of component scores, but not if a physical interpretation of the component vectors is required.     

Do paleoclimate proxies agree? A test comparing 19 late Holocene climate and sea‐ice reconstructions from Icelandic marine and lake sediments

Geochemical, mineralogical and biological indicators preserved in sediments are widely used to reconstruct past climate change, but proxies differ in the degree to which their utility as climate indicators has been validated via laboratory experiments, modern spatial calibrations, or down‐core comparisons with instrumental climate data. Multi‐proxy studies provide another means of evaluating interpretations of proxies. This paper presents a multi‐proxy assessment comparing 19 sub‐centennially resolved late Holocene proxy records, covering the period 300–1900 AD, from seven Icelandic marine and lacustrine core sites. We employ simple statistical comparisons between proxy reconstructions to evaluate their correlations over time and, ultimately, their utility as proxies for regional climate. Proxies examined include oxygen isotopic composition of benthic and planktonic foraminifera, abundance of the sea‐ice biomarker IP₂₅, allochthonous quartz in marine sediments (a proxy for drift ice around Iceland), marine carbonate abundance, total organic carbon concentration, chironomid assemblages, lacustrine biogenic silica and carbon/nitrogen ratios in lake sediments. Most of the examined proxy records, including temperature and sea‐ice proxies, correlate strongly with each other over multi‐centennial timescales, and thus do appear to record changes in regional climate. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.