Impacts of Increasing Model Resolutions and Shortening Forecast Lead Times on QPFs in South China During the Rainy Season

This study investigated the impacts of increasing model resolutions and shortening forecast lead times on the quantitative precipitation forecast(QPF) for heavy-rainfall events over south China during the rainy seasons in 2013–2020.The control experiment, where the analysis-forecast cycles run with model resolutions of about 3 km, was compared to a lower-resolution experiment with model resolutions of about 9 km, and a longer-term experiment activated 12 hours earlier. Rainfall forecasting in th...     

长时效的正压原始方程能量完全守恒(拟)谱模式

遵循误差反演补偿新计算原理,对正压原始方程传统气象全球拟谱模式方案进行了改造,构造了正压原始方程能量完全守恒全球拟增模式新计算方案,解决了正压原始方程的(非线性)计算稳定性问题和能量守恒整体性质保持问题,改进了相应正压原始方程传统气象全球拟谱模式方案的计算效能。新方案的数值试验表明:在计算实践上,新方案在解决能量守恒问题的同时,可解决(非线性)计算稳定性问题,并在一定条件下可解决非线性计算收敛性问题。进一步的比较数值试验还表明:在计算实践上,新方案具有在提高相应传统气象方案的计算精度,减少其计算量的同时,延长其计算时效,解决其中一类特定“气候漂移”问题方面的效用。本工作原理也适用于斜压原始方程情形。     

Unified Approach to Photon-Counting Microlaser Rangers, Transponders, and Altimeters

Unlike current manned systems, NASA's next generation SLR2000 Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) station is fully autonomous, eye-safe, relatively compact and inexpensive, and, during daytime tracking, operates at signal-to-noise ratios several orders of magnitude below unity. Tiny, passivelyQ-switched microlasers generate ultra-short pulses with output energies on the order of 100 J at few kHz rates to achieve mm-levelranging precision to satellite altitudesof 20,000 km. Special ranging receivers, combined with Poisson statistical analysis of the received photon distribution, enable the system to rapidly and reliably identify and extract the single photon laser echoes from the solar background. The enhanced rate of return, combined with a uniform signal strength, can actually drive down both systematic and random range errors. The new SLR2000 technology has already spawned exciting new applications. Compact microlaser altimeters, capable of mapping the surface of a planet or other celestial body at multikilohertz rates, is one such application, and a high altitude, airborne version is currently being developed under NASA's Instrument Incubator Program. Interplanetary microlaser transponders would be capable of performing decimeter ranging or subnanosecond time transfer to spacecraft throughout the inner Solar System, resulting in improved knowledge of planetary motions and librations and enhanced General Relativity experiments.     

The Tallinn Temperature Series Reconstructed Back Half a Millennium by Use of Proxy Data

In order to extend the Tallinn temperature series backward in time, three different climate proxies were used. These were: the first day of ice break-up in Tallinn port, a proxy for the mean winter air temperature (December to March); the first day of ice break-up on the rivers in northern Estonia, a proxy for the beginning of spring; and, the first day of the rye harvest, a proxy for the mean air temperature in spring and summer (April to July). On the basis of these proxies the mean winter temperature could be extended back to the year AD 1500, and the spring and summer temperature back to 1731. The series of winter temperatures was analysed for long-term trends and variations on different timescales. The most striking feature is the warming of the winters from about the mid nineteenth century to the present. The warming is especially noticeable over the latest decades. The climate from the start of the series (AD 1500) to the mid nineteenth century was in general somewhat colder, and should be recognised as a part of the Little Ice Age, though the period was intercepted by warmer winters in the first half of the eighteenth century.     

1013号台风“鲶鱼”的台风环流分离方法比较

台风系统为中α尺度系统,接近大尺度系统.为了研究环境气流与台风的相互作用,需要将台风从环境风场中分离出来.分别采用时间滤波、空间滤波和动力学方法将2010年第13号（1013号）超强台风“鲶鱼”（Megi）从环境风场中分离出来,对比分离得到的台风环境场,结果表明：时间滤波和空间滤波具有相对的随机性,容易留下台风风场的残留,同时也会减弱环境风场,而采用动力学方法可以将台风“Megi”较好地分离出来.3种方法各有优缺点,采用时间滤波可以使风场、高度场和温度场很好地平衡,但是需要较长的时间序列;空间滤波方法,仅采用一个时刻的时间,方法相对简单易用,但是由于台风风场、高度场和温度场的尺度并不相同,采用同一尺度对台风滤波容易造成风场、高度场和温度场的不平衡;动力学滤波方法分离效果较好,但是相对复杂,在低层也容易产生不平衡的现象.     

灰色时变参数模型及其对气候预报的应用

本文提出关于灰色系统预报的一种新模型，并应用该模型对蒙自5月雨量进行了预报。结果表明:灰色时变参数模型的预报准确性与其他几类模型相比有显著提高。     

温室黄瓜生育期模拟模型的研究

根据黄瓜（Cucumis sativus）发育的光温反应过程,建立了基于生理发育时间的黄瓜生育期模拟模型,并利用不同品种的试验资料对模型进行了检验。结果表明,黄瓜从播种到第一批瓜成熟需积累生理发育时间30d,播种—幼苗、幼苗—伸蔓、伸蔓—开花、开花—结瓜、结瓜—成熟所需的生理发育时间分别为3、11、9、5、2d。发芽期、幼苗期、伸蔓期、开花期、结瓜期等各生育期持续时间的模拟值与实际观测值的回归估计标准误差（root mean squared error;RMSE）分别为0、2．6、1．7、0．8、2．1d,从播种到第一次采收的模拟值与观测值的RMSE为1．4d。而用有效积温法对发芽期、幼苗期、伸蔓期、开花期、结瓜期等各生育期持续时间的模拟值与实际观测值的RMSE分别为0．7、10．0、5．7、2．4、2．5d,从播种到第一次采收的模拟值与观测值的RMSE为22．0d。本模型比用有效积温法能更准确地预测黄瓜各个生育期的起止日期和黄瓜的收获期。     

平顶山城区碳环境演变时间序列分析

大气中日益上升的温室气体浓度,已导致温室效应日益增强,从而引发一系列不利的环境与生态后果,并会对世界粮食生产、水资源利用等关系人类生存发展的方面产生重要影响。1994~2014年是平顶山城市化进程不断加快和经济社会高速发展的时期,土地利用、人口、能源消耗和城市植被等影响碳源、碳汇的主要方面也都发生了重大的变化。将1994~2014年河南省平顶山市城区的碳平衡变化情况作为研究对象,计算出碳平衡主要影响因素各自的变化情况并加以分析,得出有关平顶山城区碳环境演变的结论。最后,为促进平顶山城区的碳源碳汇平衡,提出实现城市快速发展过程中低碳效应策略。     

一种基于元规则的地理国情普查元数据时间顺序自动检查方法

元数据作为地理国情普查的重要组成部分,其数据质量决定整个作业流程的可靠性,而元数据的时间顺序检查一直没有自动高效的方法。根据第一次全国地理国情普查对元数据的具体要求,本文提出一种高效准确的检查方法,并得到实践检验,可为地理国情普查质检工作提供技术参考。     

伪卫星定位系统中的频率与时间统一

在电磁波定位系统中,时间和频率的统一与稳定性非常重要,会直接影响系统的可用性和精度．通过对一个伪卫星定位系统中时间和频率问题的研究,设计出了一套完整的时频统一方案,并编写了程序实现。该方案可以有效提高系统初始化速度,并提高观测质量。