华北一次强对流暴雨的湿位涡诊断分析

应用常规地面观测资料、区域加密站降水资料、NCEP再分析资料（水平分辨率为1°×1°,时间间隔为6 h）,对2009年6月8日发生在华北的一次强对流暴雨过程的湿位涡场进行了诊断分析。结果表明：湿位涡的分布对强对流暴雨的发生、落区有较强的指示性作用,MPV1＂正负值区垂直叠加＂的配置是强对流暴雨发生、发展的有利形势。暴雨出现在850 hPa上MPV、MPV1、MPV2正负值过渡带附近,是对流不稳定与斜压不稳定相结合的地区。θse等值线接近垂直的地区有利于垂直涡度的增长,亦有利于强降水发生。     

Potential Deformation and Its Application to the Diagnosis of Heavy Precipitation in Mesoscale Convective Systems

Many observational studies have shown that deformation, like vertical vorticity and divergence, is closely related to the occurrence and distribution of strong precipitation. In this paper, to involve deformation in precipitation diagnosis, a new parameter called potential deformation(PD) is derived and then applied to precipitation detection within a simulated mesoscale convective system(MCS). It is shown that PD includes both stretching deformation and shearing deformation and shares similar characteristics with deformation insofar as it does not change with the rotating coordinate. Diagnosis of the simulated MCS reveals that PD performs well in tracing the MCS' precipitation. In terms of their distributional pattern, the large-value areas of PD are similar to the precipitation in the different development stages of the MCS. A detailed analysis of the physical processes contained within the PD shows that it can reflect the three-dimensional moisture variation,vertical wind shear and wind deformation within the MCS. These structures are usually a comprehensive reflection of the characteristics of the surface cold pool, rear inflow jet, downward cold air flow and upward warm moist flow within the precipitating convective cells. For this reason, the PD shows much stronger anomalies in the precipitating atmosphere than the non-precipitating atmosphere, which implies considerable potential for its application in detecting heavy precipitation within MCSs.     

An East Asian Subtropical Summer Monsoon Index Defined by Moist Potential Vorticity

Based on consideration of both thermodynamic and kinetic features of the subtropical summer monsoon in East Asia,a new index is defined by the moist potential vorticity (MPV) for this monsoon.Variation features of the subtropical summer monsoon over 60 years are analyzed using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) data from 1948 to 2007.Results show that the new index can well reflect the seasonal,interannual,and interdecadal variations of the East Asian subtropical summer monsoon.Correlation analysis of the new index and precipitation data from 160 stations in China shows that in high-index years,the summer monsoon is strong,and more rain falls in eastern North China,southwestern China,and along the coast of South China and less rain falls in the Yangtze-Huaihe R.basin.In low-index years,the opposite occurs.Lastly,the new index is compared with four established monsoon indices.The new index is found to have an advantage in representing summer rainfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe R.basin.     

广东省后汛期强对流天气潜势预报方法研究

利用2007—2008年两年7—10月广东后汛期强对流天气出现时的雷达资料、对应的GRAPES模式资料以及地市台站上报的强对流天气发生的实况,把瞬时大风〉17.2 m·s^-1、冰雹、龙卷作为强对流发生的依据,对上述数据进行整理。根据广州热带海洋研究所中尺度模式的输出GRAPES资料,结合雷达CAPPI数据,计算单体的各层风速、温度、湿度、有效位能等环境特征量,将单体特征和模式计算的单体环境场要素以及强对流发生实况,通过多元逐步回归方法建立后汛期强对流天气潜势预报方程,据此对发生于广东省后汛期强对流天气（如雷雨大风、冰雹和龙卷风）进行0～1小时临近预报。用预报成功率（POD）、虚假警报率（FAR）和关键成功指数（CSI）衡量方法的预报性能。共有5540个有效样本参与回归计算,31个因子中有12个引入了回归方程,建立的预报方程在阈值取为0.26时,得到的预报成功率POD为0.73,虚假警报率FAR为0.61,关键成功指数CSI为0.338,各项指标均要好于前汛期预报性能;从实际的预报能力来看,在后汛期强对流潜势预报中,后汛期强对流潜势预报方法得到的空报率和漏报率都要低于前汛期,预报效果较好,可用于广东后汛期的强对流天气潜势预报中。     

雷暴预警预报的研究进展

雷暴作为极端天气事件中的一种,不仅常产生强降水、破坏性大风和冰雹等严重的天气灾害,而且还伴有雷电,造成雷击灾害,给工农业生产和人民生活都可带来严重的损失。因此对雷暴的预警预报研究变得尤为重要,也促使其理论、技术及应用都取得了很大的发展。本文对有关雷暴预警预报技术的一些研究结果和进展如雷暴的潜势预报、雷暴的临近预报、雷电活动的观测信息在雷暴天气预警中的指示作用及雷暴云的数值模拟等方面进行了归纳和综述,总结了各方面研究所涉及的重要问题及主要进展,并对未来发展进行展望。     

Response of ocean dynamics to multiple equilibria of the Kuroshio path South of Japan

Variability of the Kuroshio path to the south of Japan plays a central role in the local climate change and exerts tremendous influences on the local atmosphere and ocean. In this study, the response of ocean dynamics, in terms of the eddy kinetic energy (EKE), potential vorticity (PV), relative vorticity, and eddy-mean flow interaction, to the Kuroshio path change is discussed. Kuroshio path south of Japan includes the near-shore non-large meander (nNLM), the off-shore non-large meander (oNLM), and the typical large meander (tLM). Analyses reveal that the distribution of EKE, PV, relative vorticity, and energy exchange between the eddy field and the mean flow respectively varies with the Kuroshio path: (1) The tLM has the maximum EKE along the path; (2) The positive and negative PV are located at the onshore and offshore side of Kuroshio axis, respevetively; (3) The distributions of anomalous relative voritcity of nNLM, oNLM, and tLM are consistent with sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs); (4) The tLM has the largest energy exchange between the eddy field and the mean flow in terms of the rate of barotropic energy conversion. On the other hand, the stability analysis of ocean currents suggests that the three Kuroshio paths south of Japan have their own intrinsic properties of the instability.     

1961—2010年中国气候生产潜力时空格局变化及其潜在可承载人口分析

以气温、降水格点数据为基础,采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算了中国气候生产潜力(CPP),并从气候的角度估算了耕地上气候资源潜在可承载的人口数,以便增强了解气候变化的影响及气候资源最大人口支撑能力。结果表明:1961—2010年中国CPP总体呈突变性增加趋势,1987年为突变点,年最低、最高及平均值分别为689. 18、814. 56和744. 05 g·m^-2·a^-1。空间上呈现出从西北向东南逐渐递增的带状分布,其中高值区主要分布在华南大部,最高值达2103. 56 g·m^-2·a^-1;低值区主要分布在西、北部地区,最低值为39. 28 g·m^-2·a^-1。2001—2010年中国大部分地区CPP年平均值相对于1961—2010年多年平均值变化幅度不大,变化比例高的地区基本上分布于中国西、北部,其中增加的区域达82%,主要分布在华东地区、新疆西部、西藏北部及青海大部,远大于缩减的区域(17%)。1995—2010年,基于公里网格的耕地气候潜在可承载人口为46—2180人·km^-2,全国平均值最低的年份为1130人·km^-2,对应的实际人口为0—49729人·km^-2,全国平均值均不高于137人·km^-2;全国实际总人口为11. 43—13. 04亿,耕地气候潜在可承载总人口为19. 72—20. 22亿,前后比值为58%—65%。这表明,中国耕地生产力未达到气候生产潜力,尚有一定的开发潜力;实际人口在中国大部分地区均没有超出气候资源潜在可承载的最大人口,然而在少数省市(如生态环境脆弱的青海省以及经济发达的大城市及沿海地区)已超出。     

城市土地潜力分析--以南京市为例

研究城市土地潜力是城市建设者合理利用城市土地、提高城市土地利用效率、保护耕地的基础。该文利用GIS对土地、规划、环保、人口等相关数据进行整合,从房地产开发的角度建立测算最低经济容积率的模型,求得每块城市土地的经济容积率;基于GIS空间分析功能,分析城市土地利用现状与最低经济容积率,并用地域环境质量综合评价、历史文化名城保护规划等数据对结果进行修正,得出南京市城市土地潜力的数量、质量及空间分布。     

雷州半岛土壤渗透性及其与地下水补给关系

对雷州半岛土壤渗透性进行了分析,并结合地形地貌、降雨入渗补给情况,识别地下水潜在补给区。雷州半岛土壤渗透性空间差异较大,饱和渗透系数变化范围为 0.04~8.83 m/d。总体而言,半岛南部、遂溪西北部渗透性较好,中部较差。土壤渗透系数受到土地利用类型、土壤粒径、土壤有机质等的影响。随着土壤中值粒径和有机质含量的增加,土壤渗透系数增加。不同土地利用类型,其土壤平均渗透性优劣表现为：荒地＞桉树林＞甘蔗＞菜地＞菠萝＞其他林地＞香蕉＞苗圃＞坡稻＞水稻田。降雨入渗补给系数南北高、中间低,随着土壤渗透系数增加而提高。半岛南部石茆岭和石板岭一带,地势高,坡度较缓,同时土壤渗透性和降雨入渗补给系数相对较高,为雷州半岛地下水潜在补给区。     

Mineral-Potential Mapping for MVT Deposits with Limited Data Sets Using Landsat Data and Geological Evidence in the Borden Basin, Northern Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada

Posterior probabilities of occurrence for Zn-Pb Mississippi Valley Type (MVT) mineralization were calculated based on evidence maps derived from regional geology, Landsat-TM, RADARSAT-1, a digital elevation model and aeromagnetic data sets in the Borden Basin of northern Baffin Island, Canada. The vector representation of geological contacts and fault traces were refined according to their characteristics identified in Landsat-TM, RADARSAT-1, DEM, slope, aspect, and shaded relief data layers. Within the study area, there is an association between the occurrence of MVT mineralization and proximity to the contact of platformal carbonates and shale units of the adjacent geological formation. A spatial association also tends to exist between mineralization and proximity to E-W and NW-SE trending faults. The relationships of known MVT occurrences with the geological features were investigated by spatial statistical techniques to generate evidence maps. Supervised classification and filtering were applied to Landsat-TM data to divide the Society Cliffs Formation into major stratigraphic subunits. Because iron oxides have been observed at some of the MVT occurrences within the Borden Basin, Landsat-TM data band ratio (3/1) was calculated to highlight the potential presence of iron-oxides as another evidence map. Processed Landsat-TM data and other derived geological evidence maps provided useful indicators for identifying areas of potential MVT mineralization. Weights of evidence and logistic regression were used independently to integrate and generate posterior probability maps showing areas of potential mineralization based on all derived evidence maps. Results indicate that in spite of the lack of important data sets such as stream or lake sediment geochemistry, Landsat-TM data and regional geological data can be useful for MVT mineral-potential mapping.