Astronomical calibration of the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary: Consequences for magnetic remanence acquisition in marine carbonates and the Asian loess sequences

We have compiled 19 records from marine carbonate cores in which the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary (MBB) has been reasonably well constrained within the astronomically forced stratigraphic framework using oxygen isotopes. By correlation of the δ¹⁸O data to a timescale based on astronomical forcing, we estimate astronomical ages for each of the MBB horizons. In all but one record the MBB occurs within Stage 19.

Most magnetostratigraphic sections in Asian Loess place the MBB within a loess interval. Since loess deposition is presumed to be associated with glacial intervals, loess horizons should correspond to even-numbered oxygen isotope stages. A glacial age for the MBB is at odds with the results presented here, which firmly place the MBB within interglacial Stage 19. Inconsistency among the many loess sections and between the loess and the marine records suggests that the magnetic interpretation of loess sections may be more complicated than hitherto supposed.

The mean of the Stage 19 age estimates for the MBB is 777.9 ± 1.8 (N = 18). Inclusion of the single Stage 20 age results in a mean of 778.8 ± 2.5 (N = 19). The astronomical age estimate of the MBB compares favorably with an (unweighted) mean of 778.2 ± 3.5 (N = 10) from a compilation of ⁴⁰Ar/39^Ar results of transitional lava flows. Combining the two independent data sets yields a grand mean of 778.0 ± 1.7 (N = 28).

The new compilation shows virtually no trend in placement of the MBB within isotope Stage 19 as a function of sediment accumulation rate. We interpret this to mean that the average depth of remanence acquisition is within a few centimeters of the sediment-water interface.

Separating the cores into two geographic regions (an Indo-Pacific-Caribbean [IPC] Group and an Atlantic Group) results in a significant difference in the position of the mid-point of the reversal with respect to the astronomical time scale. The data presented here suggest a difference of several thousand years between the two regions. This observation could be caused by systematic differences between the two regions in sedimentation rate within the interval of interest, systematic differences in remanence acquisition, or by genuine differences in the timing of the directional changes between the two regions.     

Seismotectonic models and CN algorithm: The case of Italy

The CN algorithm is utilized here both for the intermediate term earthquake prediction and to validate the seismotectonic model of the Italian territory. Using the results of the analysis, made through the CN algorithm and taking into account the seismotectonic model, three main areas, one for Northern Italy, one for Central Italy and one for Southern Italy, are defined. Two transition areas between the three main areas are delineated. The earthquakes which occurred in these two areas contribute to the precursor phenomena identified by the CN algorithm in each main area.     

关东等地区加卸载响应比的时间变化及其预测意义

计算分析了日本关东，和歌山及兵库地区的加卸载响应比（ｙ）的变化，关东地区近年来所有Ｍ≥６的７个地震及１９９５年１月１７日神户地震，在地震前的一段时间里其ｙ值均显著高于１。这说明加卸载响应比方法也适用于日本的地震预测，和歌山地区近年来Ｙ值接近于１，而关东地区的ｙ值则显著高于１已达２年，据此预测，未来１－２年内，关东地区（或其紧邻地区）有发生６级左右地震的可能，而和歌山地区这种可能性则很小。     

用地震危险性分析方法预测山东地区震害

依据地震危险性分析的思路，提出一种场地震害预测的方法。依此方法，给出山东地区５０ａ超越概率为１０％的震害预测略图     

形变,应变短临前兆标志体系的应用研究

文献「３」中给出了标志体系的整体框架结构和各标志的内容，本文讨论标志体系的进一步应用问题。首先讨论了异常信息合成的几种形式，然后根据标志体系的特点，给出了前兆追踪分析的方案；最后将专家系统的有关理论瑟形变应变前兆标志体系相结合，给出了一个地震预报专家系统的逻辑结构。     

华北地区地震时间结构的多分形特征

利用固定半径法和直接计算法系统研究了华北地区（Ｎ３０°～４３°，λＥ１０６°～１２５°）１３个Ｋ表性子区地震时间结构的广义维数Ｄｑ—ｑ及标度指数谱ｆ（ａ）—ａ的特征，并与单—Ｄｑ—ｔ曲线进行了对比。结果表明；（１）华北地区地震时间结构为多分形结构，单一分形不能完整地描述其分形特征，应该用Ｄｑ—ｑ或ｆ（ａ）—ａ来加以分析；（２）华北强震前的０．５～２．０年．周围地区地震活动的时间多分形结构出现异常，主要表现为ｑ为负时Ｄｑ增大、ｑ为正时Ｄｑ减小，或ｆ（ａ）两端点下降，ａ跨度增大及顶点右偏等现象，这是对地震密集—平静现象的另一种描述；（３）华北地区地震时间多分形方法回顾性预报评分Ｒ＝０．４７，说明其有一定预报效能，是有前景的预报方法。     

首都圈年累积释放地震能量的拓扑预测

拓补预测实际上是ＧＭ（１，１）模型群的预测。将首都圈年累积释放地震能量的统计结果作为建模的基本数据，建立相应的拓扑预测模型，对２０００年以前首都圈年累积释放地震能量的发展趋势作出初步预测。     

和硕5.0级地震气体地球化学异常特征

１９９５年３月１９日，新疆和硕县那音克乡发生Ｍｓ５．０级地震。震前，乌鲁木齐地区地下水中溶解气体Ａｒ、ＣＨ４、ＣＯ２、Ｈ２Ｓ等和库尔勒地区的断层气Ｒｎ相继出现明显的异常。异常具有短期临震性质，主要表现为短期趋势升高，临震突跳。     

Identification of Fei-Tsui arch dam from both ambient and seismic response data

This purpose of this paper is to study the dynamic characteristics of the Fei-Tsui arch dam using the seismic response data and the ambient vibration data. For the identification of dam properties from seismic response data, the multiple inputs from the abutment of the dam to represent the nonuniform excitations of seismic input motion are considered, and the ARX model is applied using the discrete-time linear filtering approach with least-squares approximation to identify the dynamic characteristics of the dam. The system modal dampings, natural frequencies and frequency response functions are identified. A comparison of the identified modal parameters is made among different seismic events. Post-earthquake safety evaluation of the dam can be made based on the identified model. Finally, the ambient vibration test of the dam is performed to identify the mode shapes along the dam crest.     

STUDY ON CANONICAL AUTOREGRESSION PREDICTION OF METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENT FIELDS*

Through extension of canonical correlation to the analysis of meteorological element fields (MEF), a concept from combination of canonical autocorrelation with canonical autoregression (CAR) is developed for short-term climatic prediction of MEFs with a formulated scheme. Experimental results suggest that the scheme is of encouraging usefulness to a weak persistence MEF,i.e., rainfall field and, in particular, to a strong persistance one like a SST field.