腾格里地区盐湖的盐类沉积特征

腾格里沙漠122个盐湖分为石盐、石盐-芒硝、石盐-白钠镁矾及芒硝(石膏)4种类型。盐湖含盐系厚度一般4～9m,总体呈现下部为含盐碎屑沉积,上部以盐类沉积为主,构成储卤层,卤水赋存其中,由湖岸至湖心储卤层厚度增长。含卤层理渐小,卤水含KCl渐高。盐湖中矿物主要为碳酸盐矿物,以芒硝、石膏为主的硫酸盐矿物、石盐以及粘土矿物。盐湖卤水以晶间卤水为主。许多卤水含K+大于2g/L。K+含量最高的红盐池,平均含量达19.14g/L。对钾矿而言,在盐湖分布相对集中地区,有一定的综合开发利用前景。     

Tracer methods used to verify the hypothesis of Cvijić about the underground connection between Prespa and Ohrid Lake

Prespa Lake and Ohrid Lake constitute a hydraulic system shared between Albania, FYR of Macedonia and Greece. Karst rocks separate both lakes. The elevation of Prespa Lake is about 150 m higher than that of Ohrid Lake. Considering these facts, Cvijić formulated in 1906 the hypothesis that Prespa Lake recharges the St. Naum and Tushemisht springs at Ohrid lakeside. Environmental isotopes demonstrated that Prespa Lake recharges about 37–42 and 52–54% of water emerging in St. Naum, and Tushemisht springs, respectively. An artificial tracer experiment carried out in 2002 physically demonstrated the underground connection between both lakes. This experiment confirmed the supposed underground connection and brought important information about the groundwater velocity, transit time, and karst water conduits development.     

Digital Image Based Approach for Three-Dimensional Mechanical Analysis of Heterogeneous Rocks

Summary This paper presents a digital image based approach for three-dimensional (3-D) numerical simulation and failure analysis of rocks by taking into account the actual 3-D heterogeneity. Digital image techniques are adopted to extract two-dimensional (2-D) material heterogeneity from material surface images. The 2-D image mesostructures are further extrapolated to 3-D cuboid mesostructures by assuming the material surface as a representation of the inner material heterogeneity within a very small depth. The iterative milling and scanning system is set up to generate the 3-D rock mesostructures. A Hong Kong granite specimen is used as an example to demonstrate the procedure of 3-D mesostructure establishment. The mechanical responses and failure process under the conventional Brazilian tensile test condition are examined through numerical analyses. The stress distribution, crack propagation process and failure model of heterogeneous material cases are simulated with a finite difference software. The numerical results indicate that material heterogeneity plays an important role in determining the failure behavior of rocks under external loading.     

论文化景观的特性

文化景观是人类活动的产物，文化景观研究是文化地理学的主要研究领域之一，而作为文化景观研究的重要组成部分的文化景观特性研究无疑将推动这一领域研究的进一步发展。运用比较分析方法，根据文化景观的定义，探讨文化景观具有时代性、继承性、叠加性、区域性、民族性等五大特性，并对这些特性进行科学的界定和详细的阐述，展示出这五大特性之间所存在的矛盾统一关系和其内在的紧密联系，进一步说明这些特性的实际意义和利用价值。     

统计预测、经验预测、物理预测——近期国际地震预测预报研究的启示

从"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"的角度讨论了世纪之交地震预测预报研究的国际进展。"统计预测"包括地震预测预报方法的统计检验、"统计地震学",以及统计物理在地震预测预报中的应用;"经验预测"包括搜索可能的前兆异常的尝试、建立将可能的前兆异常现象与地震孕育过程联系起来的简单模型、发现对地震预测预报研究具有重要意义的新现象,以及地球介质变化的动态监测试验;"物理预测"包括地震孕育和发生的物理模型、地震断层带性质的观测和实验研究,以及对震源的直接探测和钻探。讨论了"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"之间的关系,对"把经验预测或统计预测变成物理预测"的发展战略提出质疑。     

Study on snowmelt runoff simulation in the Kaidu River basin

Alpine snowmelt is an important generation mode for runoff in the source region of the Tarim River basin, which covers four subbasins characterized by large area, sparse gauge stations, mixed runoff supplied by snowmelt and rainfall, and remarkably spatially heterogeneous precipitation. Taking the Kaidu River basin as a research area, this study analyzes the influence of these characteristics on the variables and parameters of the Snow Runoff Model and discusses the corresponding determination strategy to improve the accuracy of snowmelt simulation and forecast. The results show that: (i) The temperature controls the overall tendency of simulated runoff and is dominant to simulation accuracy, as the measured daily mean temperature cannot represent the average level of the same elevation in the basin and that directly inputting it to model leads to inaccurate simulations. Based on the analysis of remote sensing snow maps and simulation results, it is reasonable to approximate the mean temperature with 0.5 time daily maximum temperature. (ii) For the conflict between the limited gauge sta-tion and remarkably spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, it is not realistic to compute rainfall for each elevation zone. After the measured rainfall is multiplied by a proper coefficient and adjusted with runoff coefficient for rainfall, the measured rainfall data can satisfy the model demands. (iii) Adjusting time lag according to the variation of snowmelt and rainfall position can improve the simulation precision of the flood peak process. (iv) Along with temperature, the rainfall increases but cannot be completely monitored by limited gauge stations, which results in precision deterioration.     

An Experiment Using the High Resolution Eta and WRF Models to Forecast Heavy Precipitation over India

In the present study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Eta models, recent heavy rainfall events that occurred (i) over parts of Maharastra during 26 to 27 July, 2005, (ii) over coastal Tamilnadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during 24 to 28 October, 2005, and (iii) the tropical cyclone of 30 September to 3 October, 2004/Monsoon Depression of 2 to 5 October 2004, that developed during the withdrawal phase of the southwest monsoon season of 2004 have been investigated. Also sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the WRF model to test the impact of microphysical and cumulus parameterization schemes in capturing the extreme weather events. The results show that the WRF model with the microphysical process and cumulus parameterization schemes of Ferrier et al. and Betts-Miller-Janjic was able to capture the heavy rainfall events better than the other schemes. It is also observed that the WRF model was able to predict mesoscale rainfall more realistically in comparison to the Eta model of the same resolution.     

The numerical solution of the Advection-Dispersion Equation: A review of some basic principles

The simulation of solute transport in rivers is frequently based on numerical models of the Advection-Dispersion Equation. The construction of reliable computational schemes, however, is not necessarily easy. The paper reviews some of the most important issues in this regard, taking the finite volume method as the basis of the simulation, and compares the performance of several types of scheme for a simple case of the transport of a patch of solute along a uniform river. The results illustrate some typical (and well known) deficiencies of explicit schemes and compare the contrasting performance of implicit and semi-Lagrangian versions of the same schemes. It is concluded that the latter have several benefits over the other types of scheme.     

A One-dimensional Ensemble Forecast and Assimilation System for Fog Prediction

A probabilistic fog forecast system was designed based on two high resolution numerical 1-D models called COBEL and PAFOG. The 1-D models are coupled to several 3-D numerical weather prediction models and thus are able to consider the effects of advection. To deal with the large uncertainty inherent to fog forecasts, a whole ensemble of 1-D runs is computed using the two different numerical models and a set of different initial conditions in combination with distinct boundary conditions. Initial conditions are obtained from variational data assimilation, which optimally combines observations with a first guess taken from operational 3-D models. The design of the ensemble scheme computes members that should fairly well represent the uncertainty of the current meteorological regime. Verification for an entire fog season reveals the importance of advection in complex terrain. The skill of 1-D fog forecasts is significantly improved if advection is considered. Thus the probabilistic forecast system has the potential to support the forecaster and therefore to provide more accurate fog forecasts.