Downward migration of seismic activity prior to some great shallow earthquakes in Japanese subduction zones—a possible intermediateterm precursor

Before the 1944 Tonankai earthquake along the Nankai Trough, seismic activity increased in the shallow depths, and then the activity gradually migrated downwards. When it reached its limit (a depth of approximatelty 70 km), the main shock occurred. Several deep earthquakes, including one ofM5.3, occurred several months prior to the Tonankai earthquake. A similar downward migration pattern also can be recognized regarding the 1952 Tokachi-oki earthquake. In this case the deepest earthquakes reached about 400 km. This may be one of the intermediate-term precursory phenomena of great thrusttype earthquakes in subduction zones. Recent observations in the Tokai district along the Suruga Trough, where a large earthquake is expected to occur in the future, suggest a similar downward migration pattern in the land area.     

辽宁省积雪对自动气象站观测地气温差的影响

利用1971—2016年辽宁省61个气象站气温、地表温度、积雪日数和积雪深度资料,分析了积雪的保温作用及其对地气温差的影响。结果表明：更换自动站前后地表温度观测方式的差异导致地气温差显著增大,地气温差的增大程度受所在区域积雪日数、积雪深度的影响显著。在积雪期较长、积雪较厚的地区,积雪引起反照率增大,使得雪面温度降低,导致雪气温差减小,而雪的保温作用使得地气温差显著增大。因此,更换自动站前地（雪）气温差与积雪日数呈显著负相关,而更换自动站后地气温差与积雪日数呈显著正相关。各台站之间地气温差随积雪深度的变化系数差异较大,为0.045~0.858 ℃?cm^-1,在年平均积雪日数＜40 d、年平均极端积雪深度＜10 cm的区域,积雪的保温作用随积雪深度增大而显著增大;在年平均积雪日数＞40 d、年平均极端积雪深度＞10 cm的区域,10 cm以下的积雪对土壤保温作用随积雪深度增大显著,当积雪深度＞10 cm后,其保温作用随积雪深度增大的幅度明显减小。     

中国中央造山带资源环境态势与可持续发展对策

资源与环境是谋求发展的物质基础和重要前提,其合理开发利用是实现可持续发展的重要内容。中国中央造山带富能、富矿、少植被、土地瘠薄,这对该区的经济发展既显示了无穷的诱惑,却又制约着对其的开发利用。对此,从保护利用水土资源、利用资源优势促进经济发展以及发展科技教育与提高人口素质三方面提出建议以促进该区走上可持续发展之路。     

近50年气候变化对滦河上游径流的影响

为了解近50年滦河上游气温和降水气候的变化特征、趋势及其对该流域径流量的影响,利用1956-2009年滦河上游的实测气温、降水量和径流深资料,分析了该流域气温、降水和径流深的年均和季度变化的时间序列,并建立了该流域气候变化对径流影响的复相关回归模型。结果表明,年径流深随着年降水量的减少而减少,随着年平均气温的升高而减少;春、夏和秋季的径流深随着同期降水量和气温的变化趋势与年际变化趋势基本一致,但冬季径流深则相反,而且其变化幅度非常小。     

Effect of coherent noise on single-station direction of arrival estimation

Polarization analysis of multi-component seismic data is used in both exploration seismology and earthquake seismology. In single-station polarization processing, it is generally assumed that any noise present in the window of analysis is incoherent, i.e., does not correlate between components. This assumption is often violated in practice because several overlapping seismic events may be present in the data. The additional arrival(s) to that of interest can be viewed as coherent noise. This paper quantifies the error because of coherent noise interference. We first give a general theoretical analysis of the problem. A simple mathematical wavelet is then used to obtain a closed-form solution to the principal direction estimated for a transient incident signal superposed with a time-shifted, unequal amplitude version of itself, arriving at an arbitrary angle to the first wavelet. The effects of relative amplitude, arrival angle, and the time delay of the two wavelets on directional estimates are investigated. Even for small differences in angle of arrival, there may be significant error (>10°) in the azimuth estimate.     

Dynamical response to supernova-induced gas removal in spiral galaxies with dark matter halo

We investigate the dynamical response, in terms of disc size and rotation velocity, to mass loss by supernovae in the evolution of spiral galaxies. A thin baryonic disc having the Kuzmin density profile embedded in a spherical dark matter halo having a density profile proposed by Navarro, Frenk & White is considered. For the purpose of comparison, we also consider the homogeneous and   r ⁻¹  profiles for dark matter in a truncated spherical halo. Assuming for simplicity that the dark matter distribution is not affected by mass-loss from discs and the change of baryonic disc matter distribution is homologous, we evaluate the effects of dynamical response in the resulting discs. We found that the dynamical response only for an adiabatic approximation of mass-loss can simultaneously account for the rotation velocity and disc size as observed particularly in dwarf spiral galaxies, thus reproducing the Tully–Fisher relation and the size versus magnitude relation over the full range of magnitude. Furthermore, we found that the mean specific angular momentum in discs after the mass-loss becomes larger than that before the mass-loss, suggesting that the mass-loss would most likely occur from the central disc region where the specific angular momentum is low.     

相态研究在化探异常评价中的应用——以马架子水系沉积物异常评价为例

利用相态研究可确定异常元素的赋存状态,马架子水系沉积物综合异常强度高,浓集中心明显,经过几次异常检查及查证,未获得良好的找矿效果,引起异常的成因机制不清。对异常样品中元素在氧化物相、结合相及硫化物相中分配的综合研究证实,Ph、Zn元素主要是以均匀分散形式存在于岩石中,为非矿致异常,从而节省了大量的人力、财力及物力,为异常查证及评价提供了一套新的思路。     

地面总辐射的异常减少对气候影响的数值试验

在与实际台风场近似一致的环境流场条件下，应用柱会标中的正压无辐散模式，讨论了台风中扰动的稳定性问题。研究表明，台风暖心结构的台风外围适当强度的冷空气活动有利限台风中扰动发展，且台风愈强，台风中扰动愈易发展。     

Geodynamic setting,structure, and composition of continuous trachybasalt-trachyandesite-rhyolite series in the north of Altai-Sayan area: the role of crust-mantle interaction in continental magma formation

The geologic positions and geochemical and isotope parameters of the Ordovician-early Silurian and Early-Middle Devonian continuous volcanic series of the Minusa basin and its mountainous framing are compared. Both series are composed mostly of moderately alkaline rocks with variations in SiO₂ contents from 45 to 77 wt.%. The Ordovician-early Silurian series differs from the Early-Middle Devonian one in lower contents of TiO₂ (< 1.7 wt.%) and Fe₂O_3tot and higher contents of Al₂O₃ in all rock varieties and in the more fractionated REE patterns of trachybasalts. The compositions of both series reflect two simultaneous mechanisms of magma evolution. The main process was fractional crystallization leading to the formation of rocks from trachybasalts to trachyrhyodacites. The accessory mechanism was the contamination of fractionated melts by crustal material, anatectic melting of crust, and mixing of deep-seated magmas with crustal melts. These processes had specifics at each stage and were controlled by the composition of the sources of parental melts. Their geochemical and isotopic parameters (high alkalinity, high contents of lithophile elements, negative anomalies of Nb, Ta, and Ti, and enrichment in radiogenic Sr) point to the interaction of mantle plumes with the lithospheric mantle that was metasomatically transformed during the preceding Vendian-early Cambrian subduction processes.     

Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios

Quantitatively evaluating the effects of adjusting cropping systems on the utilization efficiency of climatic resources under climate change is an important task for assessing food security in China. To understand these effects, we used daily climate variables obtained from the regional climate model RegCM3 from 1981 to 2100 under the A1B scenario and crop observations from 53 agro-meteorological experimental stations from 1981 to 2010 in Northeast China. Three one-grade zones of cropping systems were divided by heat, water, topography and crop-type, including the semi-arid areas of the northeast and northwest (III), the one crop area of warm–cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly regions of the northeast (IV), and the two crop area in irrigated farmland in the Huanghuaihai Plain (VI). An agro-ecological zone model was used to calculate climatic potential productivities. The effects of adjusting cropping systems on climate resource utilization in Northeast China under the A1B scenario were assessed. The results indicated that from 1981 to 2100 in the III, IV and VI areas, the planting boundaries of different cropping systems in Northeast China obviously shifted toward the north and the east based on comprehensively considering the heat and precipitation resources. However, due to high temperature stress, the climatic potential productivity of spring maize was reduced in the future. Therefore, adjusting the cropping system is an effective way to improve the climatic potential productivity and climate resource utilization. Replacing the one crop in one year model (spring maize) by the two crops in one year model (winter wheat and summer maize) significantly increased the total climatic potential productivity and average utilization efficiencies. During the periods of 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, the average total climatic potential productivities of winter wheat and summer maize increased by 9.36%, 11.88% and 12.13% compared to that of spring maize, respectively. Additionally, compared with spring maize, the average utilization efficiencies of thermal resources of winter wheat and summer maize dramatically increased by 9.2%, 12.1% and 12.0%, respectively. The increases in the average utilization efficiencies of precipitation resources of winter wheat and summer maize were 1.78 kg hm⁻² mm⁻¹, 2.07 kg hm⁻² mm⁻¹ and 1.92 kg hm⁻² mm⁻¹ during 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, respectively. Our findings highlight that adjusting cropping systems can dominantly contribute to utilization efficiency increases of agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China in the future.