Direct use of PGV for estimating peak nonlinear oscillator displacements

A predictive model is presented for estimating the peak inelastic oscillator displacements (S_d,ie) from peak ground velocity (PGV). The proposed model accounts for the variation of S_d,ie for bilinear hysteretic behavior under constant ductility (µ) and normalized lateral strength ratio (R) associated with postyield stiffness ratios of α=0 and 5%. The regression coefficients are based on a ground‐motion database that contains dense‐to‐stiff soil site recordings at distances of up to 30 km from the causative fault. The moment magnitude ( M ) range of the database is 5.2? M ?7.6 and the ground motions do not exhibit pulse‐dominant signals. Confined to the limitations imposed by the ground‐motion database, the model can estimate S_d,ie by employing the PGV predictions obtained from the attenuation relationships (ground‐motion prediction equations). In this way, the influence of important seismological parameters can be incorporated to the variation of S_d,ie in a fairly rationale manner. This feature of the predictive model advocates its implementation in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that employs scalar ground‐motion intensity indices. Various case studies are presented to show the consistent estimations of S_d,ie by the proposed model. The error propagation in the S_d,ie estimations is also discussed when the proposed model is associated with attenuation relationships. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new formulation for a code-based vertical design spectrum

Consideration of vertical seismic design loads is important for long-span structural systems, short-period structures, and for some nonstructural components in the buildings. To this end, seismic design codes utilize alternative approaches to define vertical design spectrum at different levels of complexity: either as a fraction of horizontal design spectrum or using a separate functional form having features different than the horizontal spectrum. In all cases, a consistency between the horizontal and vertical design spectral ordinates is sought. In this paper, we consider a set of modern seismic design codes, horizontal and vertical ground-motion datasets, as well as ground-motion predictive models (GMPMs) to assess the accuracy of code-based vertical design spectrum expressions. We compute horizontal and vertical spectra for different earthquake scenarios (magnitude-distance-soil condition combinations) from the selected horizontal and vertical GMPMs for comparisons with their code-based (idealized) counterparts. Besides that, we study the vertical spectrum behavior from observed ground-motion data. Our observations suggest that the vertical design spectrum formulations by current codes do not fully explain the actual vertical spectral acceleration trends. We discuss the possible reasons behind the misrepresentation of vertical spectrum by the current code approach and introduce our own expressions to compute horizontal spectrum consistent vertical design spectrum from a comprehensive simulated dataset of correlated vertical and horizontal spectral ordinates.     

Strategies to improve the explanatory power of a dynamic slope stability model by enhancing land cover parameterisation and model complexity

Despite the importance of land cover on landscape hydrology and slope stability, the representation of land cover dynamics in physically based models and their associated ecohydrological effects on slope stability is rather scarce. In this study, we assess the impact of different levels of complexity in land cover parameterisation on the explanatory power of a dynamic and process-based spatial slope stability model. Firstly, we present available and collected data sets and account for the stepwise parameterisation of the model. Secondly, we present approaches to simulate land cover: 1) a grassland landscape without forest coverage; 2) spatially static forest conditions, in which we assume limited knowledge about forest composition; 3) more detailed information of forested areas based on the computation of leaf area development and the implementation of vegetation-related processes; 4) similar to the third approach but with the additional consideration of the spatial expansion and vertical growth of vegetation. Lastly, the model is calibrated based on meteorological data sets and groundwater measurements. The model results are quantitatively validated for two landslide-triggering events that occurred in Western Austria. Predictive performances are estimated using the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC). Our findings indicate that the performance of the slope stability model was strongly determined by model complexity and land cover parameterisation. The implementation of leaf area development and land cover dynamics further yield an acceptable predictive performance (AUC ~0.71-0.75) and a better conservativeness of the predicted unstable areas (FoC ~0.71). The consideration of dynamic land cover expansion provided better performances than the solely consideration of leaf area development. The results of this study highlight that an increase of effort in the land cover parameterisation of a dynamic slope stability model can increase the explanatory power of the model. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

基于多源数据的北京市朝阳区人口时空格局评估与预测

城市人口分布与活动呈现高度的时空动态变化,掌握人口时空变化特征并进行未来预测,对于精准人口评估、有效的政策措施制定、实时的人口预警与调控等具有重要意义。本研究利用以手机信令数据为主的多源时空数据,首先利用地理探测q统计进行探索性数据分析,其次结合贝叶斯模型进行北京市朝阳区居住人口的时空变化探究及时空预测,以期达到对朝阳区人口的动态评估与预测。首先,选用地理探测q统计进行空间异质性探测,用贝叶斯时空层次模型探究基于手机信令数据推算的北京市朝阳区居住人口的总体空间效应、总体时间效应以及局部变化趋势;其次,选用贝叶斯高斯预测过程模型,基于朝阳区各街乡的居住人口及相关人口影响因子数据进行朝阳区各街乡2017年12月的居住人口预测。时空探究表明：朝阳区居住人口在空间上存在完美空间分异,整体呈现沿环路由内向外递增的空间分布格局,整体时间趋势表现为增长,各街乡局部时间变化趋势呈现一定差异。预测的空间分布与实测空间分布整体一致,精度较高,各街乡预测精度不一。结果表明基于贝叶斯理论的时空层次模型和高斯预测过程模型可以为多源时空数据下的多尺度精准识别与人口时空模式挖掘提供有效的方法支撑。     

日照港30万吨原油码头港池与航道回淤预测分析

根据日照港30万吨级原油码头工程的设计要求,在拟建工程海域实测了2个站的大、中、小潮潮位和9条测线的流速、流向及含沙量。利用二维潮汐水流数学模型进行了潮位、流速和流向验证计算,综合研究了调查海区的泥沙运动和海底冲淤演变规律,并预测了冲淤趋势。在此基础上,重点对30万吨原油码头泊位、港池与航道的淤积进行了预测分析。分析结果表明,在正常水动力条件下,该港区内的平均年回淤速率不大,此港区适合建码头。     

江苏省梅雨的长期预报和成因分析

本文提出了江苏省中南部两区梅雨量的一种季度预报方法,发现应用２０年左右前期气候要素场找因子组建的预报方程对随后两年两区梅雨量有明显预报能力。分析表明每隔２－３年,预报因子即有相当的变化,显示出前期气候系统与地区梅雨量的隔季联系有不断调整的现象,但仍然存在一些稳定出现的前期因子群,例如前期当地区域的降水量可能通过调节深层土壤水份仍会隔季影响当地的梅雨量。     

Use of GIS Technology in the Prediction and Monitoring of Landslide Hazard

Technologies such as Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have raised great expectations as potential means of coping with natural disasters, including landslides. However, several misconceptions on the potential of GIS are widespread. Prominent among these is the belief that a landslide hazard map obtained by systematic data manipulation within a GIS is assumed to be more objective than a comparable hand-made product derived from the same input data and founded on the same conceptual model. Geographical data can now be handled in a GIS environment by users who are not experts in either GIS or natural hazard process fields. The reality of the successful application of GIS within the landslide hazard domain seems to be somewhat less attractive than current optimistic expectations.In spite of recent achievements, the use of GIS in the domain of prevention and mitigation of natural catastrophes remains a pioneering activity. Diffusion of the technology is still hampered by factors such as the difficulty in acquiring appropriate raw data, the intrinsic complexity of predictive models, the lack of efficient graphical user interfaces, the high cost of digitisation, and the persistence of bottlenecks in hardware capabilities.In addition, researchers are investing more in tuning-up hazard models founded upon existing, often unreliable data than in attempting to initiate long-term projects for the acquisition of new data on the causes of catastrophic events. Governmental institutions are frequently involved in risk reduction projects whose design and implementation appear to be governed more by political issues than by technical ones. There is an unfortunate general tendency to search for data which can be collected at low cost rather than attempting to capture the information which most readily explains the causes of a disaster.If the technical, cultural, economic and political reasons for this unhealthy state cannot be adequately tackled, the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction will probably come to an end without achieving significant advances in the prediction and control of natural disasters.     

地震成像道集域的变周期预测反褶积

针对残余多次波的识别与压制问题,提出了1种应用于成像道集域的变周期预测反褶积方法.与传统的预测反褶积方法不同,该方法首先根据所建立的强波阻抗界面的深度-速度模型,在地震偏移剖面上追踪识别出残余多次波,并根据其传播时间确定出相应变化的多次波周期或预测步长,然后在成像道集上对含有残余多次波的成像道进行变周期预测反褶积压制处理,最后再将剔除残余多次波后的成像道集合成为新的地震偏移剖面.实验处理的结果表明:该方法不仅对微屈多次波有效.而且对残余的长周期鸣震多次波也可达到令人满意的压制效果.     

Foundation and application of background trend line of China’s inbound tourism

Modern inbound tourism in China has been developing for 20 years, a trend line of inbound tourists in statistical data began to show. This paper introduces the concept of tourism background trend line, and explores its two functions as a barometer in demonstrating fluctuation in the tourism economy and as a forecaster in forecasting tourism development. The tourism background trend line is a new concept, the word “background” derived from environment science, refers to the “trend line” which reflects the dynamic curve or dynamic equation of tourism development without considering the impact of unexpected incidents. The introduction of this concept was inspired by Karl Marx’s comments on the relation between value and price. Tourism background trend line reflects the summary of multiple factors involving tourism resources, tourism demand, population growth, the scale and speed of economic development, and the spatial interaction between tourism origins and destimations. It demonstrates the natural and stable trend and the temporal law of tourism development in a country or region. The tourism statistical curve is at random, susceptible to disruptions and disturbances from serious political, economic and environmental happenings, but it always fluctuates around the background line. Tourism background line can reveal the potential of a country’s tourism development. Compared with the statistical line, it can be used as a “barometer” indicating ups and downs of tourism industry in the past. When naturally extended, the background trend line also can be used for forecasting the trend of tourism development in future. In this paper, 4 tourism background trend lines of China’s inbound tourists, i. e. foreign tourists, Hong Kong/Macao/Taiwan tourists, overseas Chinese tourists and total tourists from abroad, were established with statistical data from 1978 to 1996. And the impacts of the Political Event in 1989 (or Tiananmen Square Incident) on China’s inbound tourism were evaluated. The result shows that the impact of the Event was not limited within one year, but it stretched over 3 years. The total loss was 20 million in tourist arrivals and $1620 million in foreign currency income. The paper also studied the trend of China’s inbound tourism in the next 4 years. Foundation item: Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China. Brography: SUN Gen-nian(1961 —), male, a native of Xi’an City, Shaanxi Province, master of science, associate professor. His research interests include environment science, geography modeling and MIS for tourism.     

基于前春对流层温度和北大西洋涛动的中国夏季降水统计预测模型

本文在分析中国夏季降水典型模态与前期春季对流层中上层温度主要分布类型、北大西洋涛动(简称NAO)之间关系的基础上,提出基于前春对流层温度和NAO的中国夏季降水统计预测模型,并对利用该模型预报的2004～2009年中国160站夏季降水进行检验.结果表明:中国大范围夏季降水多寡主要与5月NAO变化有关,“南多(少)北少(多...