基于FLUS的长春市土地利用动态变化与预测分析

研究城乡土地利用变化规律与驱动机制,有利于实现区域土地资源可持续发展。本文以长春市为例,以监督分类与人工解译相结合的方式对1997、2007和2017年Landsat卫星影像进行分类,总体精度分别为93.06%,90.70%和94.12%。1997-2017年,草地、耕地和其他土地面积分别减少354.74、922.11和55.35 km²,建设用地、水域和林地面积分别增加1 154.14、70.38和107.54 km²,整体表现为建设用地向周边扩张,侵占其他用地类型面积。利用未来土地利用模拟（future land use simulation,FLUS）模型,以2007年分类数据为基础,结合地形、交通区位和社会经济等土地利用变化驱动因子,仿真2017年土地利用格局,仿真结果与真实情况吻合较好,仿真精度达85.10%,Kappa系数为0.821 2,验证了模型和驱动因子精度可靠,符合土地利用变化趋势。以此模型因子预测2027年土地利用格局,结果表明：在城镇周围,建设用地将持续侵占耕地、林地、草地和其他土地的面积,但趋势减缓,同时林地面积和水域面积增加。     

Multiple-Step Predictive Control for Offshore Structures

—Ocean wave propagation is slow,visible and measurable,so a wave theory can be used to approxi-mately predict the imminnent wave force on an offshore structure based on measured,real-time wave elevation nearthe structure.This predictability suggests the development of a more efficient algorithm,than those that have beendeveloped for structures under wind and seismic loads,for the active vibration control of offshore structures.Thepresent study delveops a mutiple-step predictive optimal control(MPOC)algorithm that accounts for multiple-step external loading in the determibation of optimal control forces.The control efficiency of the newly developedMPOC algorithm has been investigated under both regular(single-frequency)and irregular(multiple-frequency)wave loads,and compared with that of two other well-known optimal control algorithms:classical linear optimalcontrol(CLOC)and instantaneou optimal control(IOC).     

分布式传感器网络系统的网络预测控制

本文针对分布式传感器网络系统的Fornasini-Marchesini （FM）状态空间模型,对系统的预测控制器设计问题进行研究.特别是针对所考虑的二维FM传感器网络系统,提出了一种新的网络预测控制方案来补偿通信时滞.首先,根据李雅普诺夫稳定性理论,给出了二维系统保持稳定的充分条件;然后利用稳定性条件,提出了一种新的预测控制器设计策略并保证系统的控制性能;最后,通过一个数值实例验证了所设计控制器的有效性.     

花粉浓度预报

重点探讨气候和植物对空气中花粉浓度的影响。通过对天津市河西区气象铁塔站、和平区南京路站1999年4月－2000年10月花粉观测资料分析表明：一年中花粉浓度有明显的周期性和季节性。经统计分析得出：当日花粉实况、气温日较差、日平均气温距平与未来25小时花浓度相关显著，用基作因子分别建立了春季、夏秋逐日花粉浓度预报主程，复相关系数分别为0．73和0．76，均通过F检验。同时利用降水、风、云量气象要素以及植物物候加以订正，作花粉浓度预报效果很好。     

面向海上目标搜索任务的多无人机协同航路优化

提出了一种面向多无人机(unmanned aerial vehicle,UAV)协同搜索海上目标任务的航路优化方法。首先,分析多无人机协同航路优化问题的基本要素模型。然后,在对各UAV独立维护的目标概率图信息进行探测更新的基础上,采用状态预测一致性算法实现目标概率图信息的快速融合。最后,同时考虑局部搜索收益与未来搜索收益,采用分布式模型预测控制(distributed model predictive control,DMPC)方法优化各UAV的搜索航路。仿真结果表明,本研究提出的方法具有较高的搜索效率,可有效应用于海上目标的快速搜索任务,具有重要的应用价值。     

甘肃省金矿资源预测模型及潜力评价

为了更加科学有效地部署甘肃省金矿勘查找矿工作,必须对全省金资源总量作出定量预测,对省内各成矿带的金资源潜力作出定量评价。文章对甘肃省已发现的429处金矿床(点)的资料及全省1∶20万区域化探资料进行了统计和研究,建立了甘肃省金资源总量丰度估算模型、品位-储量回归预测模型及全省各成矿带金资源潜力分布模型。通过定量预测得知,甘肃省金资源总量的上限值为3166t,金资源总量为2420.6t;西秦岭成矿带的金资源潜力最大,占全省金资源潜力的37%,祁连成矿带次之,占24%,扬子成矿带占15%,北山成矿带占13%。据甘肃省岩金资源回归预测模型,岩金矿床在甘肃省具有极大的资源潜力。     

Study on Formation Mechanisms of Heavy Rainfall Within the Meiyu Along the Mid-Lower Yangtze River and Theories and Methods of Their Detection and Prediction

As the project of National Key Basic Research Development Program: Research on Formation Mechanisms and Predictive Theories of Major Weather Disasters in China has been fulfilled by 5-yr efforts of Chinese scientists, achieving results of great significance are as follows: 1) development of multi-scale physical models for Meiyu frontal heavy rainfall based on a range of real-time observations; 2) construction of synoptic models for such heavy rainfall; 3) the Meiyu front found to consist of multi-scale systems that represent a subtropical front, which shears structural features of an extratropical front and ITCZ, displaying sometimes a bi-front feature in the mid-lower Yangtze Basin (MLYB). The positive feedback between pre-frontal wet physical processes and over-front strong convective activities as well as interactions among multi-scale systems of the Meiyu front act as the important mechanism for the maintenance and development of the Meiyu front; 4) proposal of theories and methods for quantitative retrieval of multiple mesoscale torrential rains from satellite remote sensings, leading to a line of products; 5) investigation of applicable theories and techniques for retrieving the heavy rainfall system's 3D structure from dual-Doppler synchronous detectings; and 6) development of a system for meso heavy rainfall numerical prediction models with a 3D variational data assimilation scheme included, a tool that played an active role in flood combating and relief activities over the Huaihe River Basin (HRB) in 2003.     

地质钻探垂钻定向纠偏控制的工程实现与实验分析

理论提出的纠偏方法需反复进行实验验证方可应用于实际工程,然而垂钻纠偏控制过程复杂,操作难度大,所需时间长、资金庞大,直接将所提方法放置现场调试是不可取的,而仅采用计算机仿真对算法进行验证也有一定局限性,因此发展和研究纠偏控制工程实现方法十分必要。本文以地质钻探钻进过程定向纠偏控制的工程实现为导向,首先分析并给出实际纠偏工艺过程以及纠偏控制的特点与目标;然后总结基于模型预测控制的纠偏控制问题与优化目标,结合笔者早期的一些纠偏控制理论研究,分别阐述不同纠偏工况下的纠偏控制方法;其次开发定向纠偏控制系统,用于集成纠偏控制算法,使得算法能够应用于实际工程;最后设计纠偏控制实验,以验证纠偏控制算法的工程适用性。实验表明,所提纠偏控制方法能够有效应用于实际纠偏过程,并应对和完成多种纠偏任务。     

Establishing a predictive performance indicator for real‐time hybrid simulation

Real‐time hybrid simulation (RTHS) is increasingly being recognized as a powerful cyber‐physical technique that offers the opportunity for system evaluation of civil structures subject to extreme dynamic loading. Advances in this field are enabling researchers to evaluate new structural components/systems in cost‐effective and efficient ways, under more realistic conditions. For RTHS, performance metric clearly needs to be developed to predict and evaluate the accuracy of various partitioning choices while incorporating the dynamics of the transfer system, and computational/communication delays. In addition, because of the dynamics of the transfer system, communication delays, and computation delays, the RTHS equilibrium force at the interface between numerical and physical substructures is subject to phase discrepancy. Thus, the transfer system dynamics must be accommodated by appropriate actuator controllers. In this paper, a new performance indicator, predictive performance indicator (PPI), is proposed to assess the sensitivity of an RTHS configuration to any phase discrepancy resulting from transfer system dynamics and computational/communication delays. The predictive performance indicator provides a structural engineer with two sets of information as follows: (i) in the absence of a reference response, what is the level of fidelity of the RTHS response? and (ii) if needed, what partitioning adjustments can be made to effectively enhance the fidelity of the response? Moreover, along with the RTHS stability switch criterion, this performance metric may be used as an acceptance criteria for conducting single‐degree‐of‐freedom RTHS. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Semi-active model predictive control for 3rd generation benchmark problem using smart dampers

A semi-active strategy for model predictive control (MPC), in which magneto-rheological dampers are used as an actuator, is presented for use in reducing the nonlinear seismic response of high-rise buildings. A multi-step predictive model is developed to estimate the seismic performance of high-rise buildings, taking into account of the effects of nonlinearity, time-variability, model mismatching, and disturbances and uncertainty of controlled system parameters by the predicted error feedback in the multi-step predictive model. Based on the predictive model, a Kalman-Bucy observer suitable for semi-active strategy is proposed to estimate the state vector from the acceleration and semi-active control force feedback. The main advantage of the proposed strategy is its inherent stability, simplicity, on-line real-time operation, and the ability to handle nonlinearity, uncertainty, and time-variability properties of structures. Numerical simulation of the nonlinear seismic responses of a controlled 20-story benchmark building is carried out, and the simulation results are compared to those of other control systems. The results show that the developed semi-active strategy can efficiently reduce the nonlinear seismic response of high-rise buildings.