1991年江淮流域梅雨结束预报的分析与讨论

1991年江淮梅雨结束，在预报上具有相当难度。由于ECMWF数值预报出现重大偏差，曾一度造成业务预报的重大分歧，增加了预报决策的困难。作者客观地反映当时预报的实况，其目的在于剖析预报分歧中的症结，并由此提出预报员的经验可以弥补单一预报工具的不足，修正数值预报产品的误差，从而提高预报准确率。     

Models to predict Secchi depth in small glacial lakes

This study quantifies and ranks variables of significance to predict mean values of Secchi depth in small glacial lakes. The work is based on a new, extensive set of data from 88 Swedish lakes and their catchments. Several empirical models based on catchment and lake morphometric parameters are presented. These empirical models can only be used to predict Secchi depth for lakes of the same type, and the models based on geological map parameters can evidently not be used for time-dependent and site typical predictions of Secchi depth. However, many of the principles behind the results ought to be valid for lakes in general. Various hypotheses concerning the factors regulating the variability in mean Secchi depth among lakes are formulated and tested. The most important variables are: Lake colour (expressing allogenic input of different types of humic materials), total-P and lake temperature (measures of production of autogenic materials). The most important map parameters are: The mean depth (linked to resuspension and lake morphometry) and the ratio between the drainage area and lake area (expressing the linkage between catchment and lake). The predictability of some of the models cannot be markedly improved by accounting for the distribution of the characteristics in the drainage area (using the drainage area zonation technique). The variability in mean Secchi depth from other factors, such as precipitation and anthropogenic load, may then be quantitatively differentiated from the impact of these geological factors, which can statistically explain 68% of the variability in Secchi depth among these lakes. The model based on map parameters can also be used to estimate natural, preindustrial reference values of Secchi depth.     

遥感技术在腾冲芒棒盆地煤炭资源调查中的应用

以卫星遥感技术为主要手段，结合适量野外调查验证，综合分析了腾冲芒棒盆地聚煤作用及聚煤期后构造对煤层的改造作用，最终在盆地内圈定了两个遥感含煤远景区即橄榄寨——大崩嘎含煤远景区和弄岗——团田含煤远景区，为该区今后进一步煤炭资源勘探工作提供了靶区和基础资料。     

WebGIS在浙江省地质灾害预测预报及信息发布中的应用

在浙江省经济发展过程中,地质灾害的频繁发生,给该省的人民生命安全与建设和发展造成很大的损失。本文结合WebGIS,应用MAPGIS IMS(Internetmapserver)以及Internet的WWW服务模式,建立了浙江省地质灾害预警预报信息的WebGIS服务,目的在于建立一个开放的网络数据库,集中管理浙江省现已有的地质环境、地质灾害的空间信息数据及预测预报信息,并使用WebGIS将之发布、共享。远程客户端使用普通的WWW浏览器就可以实现地质灾害预测预报信息的远程查询访问,使地质灾害信息能够更广泛的为浙江省的减灾与防灾和预警预报服务。     

Applicative limitations of sediment transport on predictive modeling in geomorphology

Sources of uncertainty or error that arise in attempting to scale up the results of laboratory-scale sediment transport studies for predictive modeling of geomorphic systems include: (i) model imperfection, (ii) omission of important processes, (iii) lack of knowledge of initial conditions, (iv) sensitivity to initial conditions, (v) unresolved heterogeneity, (vi) occurrence of external forcing, and (vii) inapplicability of the factor of safety concept. Sources of uncertainty that are unimportant or that can be controlled at small scales and over short time scales become important in large-scale applications and over long time scales. Control and repeatability, hallmarks of laboratory-scale experiments, are usually lacking at the large scales characteristic of geomorphology. Heterogeneity is an important concomitant of size, and tends to make large systems unique. Uniqueness implies that prediction cannot be based upon first-principles quantitative modeling alone, but must be a function of system history as well. Periodic data collection, feedback, and model updating are essential where site-specific prediction is required.     

Where Are Porphyry Copper Deposits Spatially Localized? A Case Study in Benguet Province,Philippines

To provide guides for exploration of porphyry copper mineralization at a district scale, we examine the spatial association between known porphyry copper deposits and geologic features in Benguet, Philippines. The spatial associations between the porphyry copper deposits and strike-slip fault discontinuities, batholithic pluton margins and porphyry plutons are quantified using weights of evidence modeling. In the training and testing district, the porphyry copper occurrences are associated spatially with strike-slip fault discontinuities, batholithic pluton margins and contacts of porphyry plutons within distances of 3 km, 2.25 km, and 1 km, respectively. In addition, the porphyry plutons are associated spatially with strike-slip fault discontinuities and contacts of batholithic plutons within a distance of 2.25 km and 3 km, respectively. Based on these significant spatial associations, predictive maps are generated to delineate zones favorable for porphyry copper mineralization and zones favorable for emplacement of porphyry plutons in Benguet province, Philippines. Validations of the predictive models demonstrate their efficacy in pointing to zones for subsequent follow-up exploration work.     

山东区域汛期旱涝预测概论

对1951－2000年期间汛期（6－8月）山东区域旱涝与全国主要多雨带的8个分布类型的逐年对应关系进行了具体的对比和论述。并对烟台、青岛、潍坊、济南、临沂、菏泽等6个地区汛期旱涝的天文、海洋、大气环流和气象要素等方面的预报物理因子进行了全面的普查、筛选、精选和综合分析，并分别建立了汛期降水量预报物理方程。并以青岛地区为例，对汛期降水理的多种交叉学科的预报物理因子进行了最优集成，为青岛地区和水量和旱涝建立了分多级的可操作的预报物理模型。该文优选出来的汛期降水的多学科物理因子对短期气候预测有重要的学术意义，其中所建立的预报物理方程和预报物理模型对山东省各区汛期旱涝的季度和年度预报有重要的应用价值。     

赤柏松矿田含镍基性岩侵入体的成因矿物学研究

本文从成因矿物学角度对所述岩体中主要造岩矿物橄榄石、辉石与斜长石的颜色、形态、晶胞参数、化学成分、微量元素、稀土及氧、硫、锶稳定同位素等方面进行了研究,从而揭示了岩体的成岩成矿物质来源、形成温度、压力,fo_2,Eh、pH值等物理-化学条件与成岩成矿作用特征。同时,概括出岩体的成矿特点与找矿准则。     

三层BP神经网络地震灾害人员伤亡预测模型

选择地震发生时刻、震级、震中烈度、建筑物倒塌和严重破坏率、抗震设防水准、人口密度、地震预报等7个评价指标,以20次严重地震灾害为示例（其中,17个作训练样本,3个作验证样本）,建立了三层BP神经网络地震灾害人员伤亡预测模型。基于MATLAB6,5BP神经网络训练,得出的预测结果与各个示例的实际数值比较吻合。验证样本的训练结果表明,该模型适用于地震灾害人员伤亡评估。通过对评价指标的权重计算,确认人口密度、建筑物倒塌与严重破坏率、震中烈度是影响地震灾害人员伤亡的主要因素,地震预报、抗震设防水准、地震发生时刻和震级次之。作为人为可控预测指标,减少人口密度特别是城市人口密度,提高建（构）筑物抗震能力及预测预报水平,对于减少地震灾害人员伤亡起更重要的作用。