花粉浓度预报

重点探讨气候和植物对空气中花粉浓度的影响。通过对天津市河西区气象铁塔站、和平区南京路站1999年4月－2000年10月花粉观测资料分析表明：一年中花粉浓度有明显的周期性和季节性。经统计分析得出：当日花粉实况、气温日较差、日平均气温距平与未来25小时花浓度相关显著，用基作因子分别建立了春季、夏秋逐日花粉浓度预报主程，复相关系数分别为0．73和0．76，均通过F检验。同时利用降水、风、云量气象要素以及植物物候加以订正，作花粉浓度预报效果很好。     

岩土力学数值模拟中力学参数的确定方法

力学参数的选取是进行岩土力学数值模拟的关键，它直接决定了模拟结果的合理性。不同的力学模型需要选取不同的计算参数，经验值在参数的确定过程中具有一定程度的参考价值，几种变形参数和强度参数的现场尺度转化方法解决了室内土工实验参数的现场应用问题，提出了进行力学参数和计算模型合理确定的推断模型的概念，并对推断模型实现的思想和步骤进行了较为详细的讨论。     

Study on Formation Mechanisms of Heavy Rainfall Within the Meiyu Along the Mid-Lower Yangtze River and Theories and Methods of Their Detection and Prediction

As the project of National Key Basic Research Development Program: Research on Formation Mechanisms and Predictive Theories of Major Weather Disasters in China has been fulfilled by 5-yr efforts of Chinese scientists, achieving results of great significance are as follows: 1) development of multi-scale physical models for Meiyu frontal heavy rainfall based on a range of real-time observations; 2) construction of synoptic models for such heavy rainfall; 3) the Meiyu front found to consist of multi-scale systems that represent a subtropical front, which shears structural features of an extratropical front and ITCZ, displaying sometimes a bi-front feature in the mid-lower Yangtze Basin (MLYB). The positive feedback between pre-frontal wet physical processes and over-front strong convective activities as well as interactions among multi-scale systems of the Meiyu front act as the important mechanism for the maintenance and development of the Meiyu front; 4) proposal of theories and methods for quantitative retrieval of multiple mesoscale torrential rains from satellite remote sensings, leading to a line of products; 5) investigation of applicable theories and techniques for retrieving the heavy rainfall system's 3D structure from dual-Doppler synchronous detectings; and 6) development of a system for meso heavy rainfall numerical prediction models with a 3D variational data assimilation scheme included, a tool that played an active role in flood combating and relief activities over the Huaihe River Basin (HRB) in 2003.     

Biogeographic assessments: A framework for information synthesis in marine spatial planning

This paper presents the Biogeographic Assessment Framework (BAF), a decision support process for marine spatial planning (MSP), developed through two decades of close collaborations between scientists and marine managers. Spatial planning is a considerable challenge for marine stewardship agencies because of the need to synthesize information on complex socio-ecological patterns across geographically broad spatial scales. This challenge is compounded by relatively short time-frames for implementation and limited financial and technological resources. To address this pragmatically, BAF provides a rapid, flexible and multi-disciplinary approach to integrate geospatial information into formats and visualization tools readily useable for spatial planning. Central to BAF is four sequential components: (1) Planning; (2) Data Evaluation; (3) Ecosystem Characterization; and (4) Management Applications. The framework has been applied to support the development of several marine spatial plans in the United States and Territories. This paper describes the structure of the BAF framework and the associated analytical techniques. Two management applications are provided to demonstrate the utility of BAF in supporting decision making in MSP.     

Recharge estimation using remotely sensed evapotranspiration in an irrigated catchment in southeast Australia

Reliable estimates of groundwater recharge are required for the sustainable management of surface and ground water resources in semi‐arid regions particularly in irrigated regions. In this study, groundwater recharge was estimated for an irrigated catchment in southeast Australia using a semi‐distributed hydrological model (SWAT). The model was calibrated under the dry climatic conditions for the period from August 2002 to July 2003 using flow and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET). The model was able to simulate observed monthly drain flow and spatially distributed remotely sensed ET. Recharge tended to be higher for irrigated land covers, such as perennial pasture, than for non‐irrigated land. On average, the estimated annual catchment recharge ranged between 147 and 289 mm which represented about 40% of the total rainfall and irrigation inputs. The optimized soil parameters indirectly reflected flow bypassing the soil matrix that could be responsible for this substantial amount of recharge. Overall, the estimated recharge was much more than that previously estimated for the wetter years. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

分布式传感器网络系统的网络预测控制

本文针对分布式传感器网络系统的Fornasini-Marchesini （FM）状态空间模型,对系统的预测控制器设计问题进行研究.特别是针对所考虑的二维FM传感器网络系统,提出了一种新的网络预测控制方案来补偿通信时滞.首先,根据李雅普诺夫稳定性理论,给出了二维系统保持稳定的充分条件;然后利用稳定性条件,提出了一种新的预测控制器设计策略并保证系统的控制性能;最后,通过一个数值实例验证了所设计控制器的有效性.     

Treatment of ground-motion predictive relationships for the reference seismic hazard map of Italy

In the framework of the 2004 reference seismic hazard map of Italy the amplitude of the strong-motion (expressed in terms of Peak Horizontal Acceleration with 10% probability of non-exceedence in 50 years, referred to average hard ground conditions) was computed using different predictive relationships. Equations derived in Italy and in Europe from strong-motion data, as well as a set of weak and strong-motion based empirical predictive relationships were employed in a logic tree procedure, in order to capture the epistemic uncertainty affecting ground-motion attenuation. This article describes the adjustments and conversions required to eliminate the incompatibilities amongst the relations. Particularly significant are distance conversions and style-of-faulting adjustments, as well as the problems related to the use of regional relations, such as the selection of a reference depth, the quantification of random variability and the strong-motion prediction. Moreover, a regional attenuation relationship specific for volcanic areas was also employed, allowing a more realistic evaluation of seismic hazard, as confirmed by the attenuation of macroseismic intensities.     

基于FLUS的长春市土地利用动态变化与预测分析

研究城乡土地利用变化规律与驱动机制,有利于实现区域土地资源可持续发展。本文以长春市为例,以监督分类与人工解译相结合的方式对1997、2007和2017年Landsat卫星影像进行分类,总体精度分别为93.06%,90.70%和94.12%。1997-2017年,草地、耕地和其他土地面积分别减少354.74、922.11和55.35 km²,建设用地、水域和林地面积分别增加1 154.14、70.38和107.54 km²,整体表现为建设用地向周边扩张,侵占其他用地类型面积。利用未来土地利用模拟（future land use simulation,FLUS）模型,以2007年分类数据为基础,结合地形、交通区位和社会经济等土地利用变化驱动因子,仿真2017年土地利用格局,仿真结果与真实情况吻合较好,仿真精度达85.10%,Kappa系数为0.821 2,验证了模型和驱动因子精度可靠,符合土地利用变化趋势。以此模型因子预测2027年土地利用格局,结果表明：在城镇周围,建设用地将持续侵占耕地、林地、草地和其他土地的面积,但趋势减缓,同时林地面积和水域面积增加。     

基于风险地形建模的毒品犯罪风险评估和警务预测

犯罪具有明显的时空特征,研究犯罪问题离不开时间和空间维度分析,以及产生犯罪的社会、地理、生态、环境等因素。风险地形建模是美国学者研发的空间风险评估和警务预测技术,已在全球六大洲45个国家和美国35个州得到了独立测试和验证,被广泛应用于警务预测、国土安全、交通事故、公共医疗、儿童虐待、环境污染、城市发展等多个领域。在毒品、纵火、爆炸、强奸、抢劫、盗窃等犯罪研究领域更是取得了显著成果。本文运用犯罪热点分析和风险地形建模,以长三角地区N市毒品犯罪为研究对象,对该市2015年毒品犯罪的危险因子、空间盲区、风险地形进行分析,探索毒品犯罪的生成机理和演化规律,并对2016年毒品犯罪进行预测。研究结果表明,N市毒品犯罪呈现明显的犯罪热点和冷点;出租屋、酒店、车站、ATM机、停车场、娱乐场所、城市快速路、网吧是N市毒品犯罪的风险性因素。风险地形建模能较好地预测毒品犯罪。公安机关禁毒部门应据此进行严密管控,逐步限制、消除犯罪产生地、犯罪吸引地、犯罪促进地的生存土壤和条件。     

Agents of landscape change in southern New Zealand, 1896–1920

The records of two large stock and station agents, Loan & Mercantile Agency in Dunedin and Wright Stephenson in Invercargill, allowed us to track the timing, nature, magnitude and rate of landscape change in southern New Zealand between 1896 and 1920. This period extends from the final years of subdivision of large estates, and includes closer settlement, the shift from pastoral farming to intensive agriculture, growth of dairying, and increasing mechanisation of agriculture. These changes are reflected in clients’ annual expenditures on capital items such as fencing and building materials, tools and implements, materials for drains.