Post‐processing of medium‐range probabilistic hydrological forecasting: impact of forcing,initial conditions and model errors

The impact of errors in the forcing, errors in the model structure and parameters, and errors in the initial conditions is investigated in a simple hydrological ensemble prediction system. The hydrological model is based on an input nonlinearity connected with a linear transfer function and forced by precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). The post‐processing of the precipitation and/or the streamflow using information from the reforecasts performed by ECMWF is tested. For this purpose, hydrological reforecasts are obtained by forcing the hydrological model with the precipitation from the reforecast data. In the present case study, it is found that the post‐processing of the hydrological ensembles with a statistical model fitted on the hydrological reforecasts improves the verification scores better than the use of post‐processed precipitation ensembles. In the case of large biases in the precipitation, combining the post‐processing of both precipitation and streamflow allows for further improvements. During the winter, errors in the initial conditions have a larger impact on the scores than errors in the model structure as designed in the experiments. Errors in the parameter values are largely corrected with the post‐processing. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB), 2003–2012: Shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences

Abstract

Drainage basins in many parts of the world are ungauged or poorly gauged, and in some cases existing measurement networks are declining. The problem is compounded by the impacts of human-induced changes to the land surface and climate, occurring at the local, regional and global scales. Predictions of ungauged or poorly gauged basins under these conditions are highly uncertain. The IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins, or PUB, is a new initiative launched by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), aimed at formulating and implementing appropriate science programmes to engage and energize the scientific community, in a coordinated manner, towards achieving major advances in the capacity to make predictions in ungauged basins. The PUB scientific programme focuses on the estimation of predictive uncertainty, and its subsequent reduction, as its central theme. A general hydrological prediction system contains three components: (a) a model that describes the key processes of interest, (b) a set of parameters that represent those landscape properties that govern critical processes, and (c) appropriate meteorological inputs (where needed) that drive the basin response. Each of these three components of the prediction system, is either not known at all, or at best known imperfectly, due to the inherent multi-scale space—time heterogeneity of the hydrological system, especially in ungauged basins. PUB will therefore include a set of targeted scientific programmes that attempt to make inferences about climatic inputs, parameters and model structures from available but inadequate data and process knowledge, at the basin of interest and/or from other similar basins, with robust measures of the uncertainties involved, and their impacts on predictive uncertainty. Through generation of improved understanding, and methods for the efficient quantification of the underlying multi-scale heterogeneity of the basin and its response, PUB will inexorably lead to new, innovative methods for hydrological predictions in ungauged basins in different parts of the world, combined with significant reductions of predictive uncertainty. In this way, PUB will demonstrate the value of data, as well as provide the information needed to make predictions in ungauged basins, and assist in capacity building in the use of new technologies. This paper presents a summary of the science and implementation plan of PUB, with a call to the hydrological community to participate actively in the realization of these goals.     

Evaluation of a global ensemble flood prediction system in Peru

ABSTRACT

Flood early warning systems play a more substantial role in risk mitigation than ever before. Hydrological forecasts, which are an essential part of these systems, are used to trigger action against floods around the world. This research presents an evaluation framework, where the skills of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) are assessed in Peru for the years 2009–2015. Simulated GloFAS discharges are compared against observed ones for 10 river gauges. Forecasts skills are assessed from two perspectives: (i) by calculating verification scores at every river section against simulated discharges and (ii) by comparing the flood signals against reported events. On average, river sections with higher discharges and larger upstream areas perform better. Raw forecasts provide correct flood signals for 82% of the reported floods, but exhibit low verification scores. Post-processing of raw forecasts improves most verification scores, but reduces the percentage of the correctly forecasted reported events to 65%.     

Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa

Abstract

The increasing demand for water in southern Africa necessitates adequate quantification of current freshwater resources. Watershed models are the standard tool used to generate continuous estimates of streamflow and other hydrological variables. However, the accuracy of the results is often not quantified, and model assessment is hindered by a scarcity of historical observations. Quantifying the uncertainty in hydrological estimates would increase the value and credibility of predictions. A model-independent framework aimed at achieving consistency in incorporating and analysing uncertainty within water resources estimation tools in gauged and ungauged basins is presented. Uncertainty estimation in ungauged basins is achieved via two strategies: a local approach for a priori model parameter estimation from physical catchment characteristics, and a regional approach to regionalize signatures of catchment behaviour that can be used to constrain model outputs. We compare these two sources of information in the data-scarce region of South Africa. The results show that both approaches are capable of uncertainty reduction, but that their relative values vary.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Kapangaziwiri, E., Hughes, D.A., and Wagener, T., 2012. Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (5), 1000–1019.     

Symposium On Sediment Storage In Rivers And Estuaries

Book Reviewed in this article:

Geographical Aspects of Health and Disease in India. Rais Akhtarand A.T.A. Learmonth, eds.

Antarctic Treaty System: An Assessment. Proceedings of a Workshop at Beardmore South Field Camp, Antarctica.

American Electoral Mosaics. J. Clark Archerand Fred M. Shelley.

Kompas op Suidwes-Afrika/Namibie. W.S. Barnard, ed.

Jerusalem in the 19th Century: The Old City. Yehoshua Ben-Arieh.

The World as a Total System. Kenneth E. Boulding.

A Social History of Housing 1815–1985, Second Ed. John Burnett.

Human Migration. W.A.V. Clark.

Regional Population Projection Models. Andrei Rogers.

The State of Population Theory: Forward from Malthus. David Colemanand Roger Schofield, eds.

Imagining Tomorrow: History, Technology and the American Future. Joseph C. Corn, ed.

Swidden Agriculture in Indonesia: The Subsistence Strategies of the Kalimantan Kantú. Michael R. Dove.

Glacial Geologic Processes. David Drewry.

Physics of Desertification. Farouk El-Bazand M.H.A. Hassan, eds.

Housing the Homeless. Jon Ericksonand Charles Wilhelm, eds.

Settlement Patterns in Missouri: A Study of Population Origins, with a Wall Map. Russel L. Gerlach.

Desert Development: Man and Technology in Sparselands. Yehuda Gradus, ed.

Nuclear Winter. The Evidence and Risks. Owen Greene, Ian Percivaland Irene Ridge.

The Take-off of Suburbia and the Crisis of the Central City. Günter Heinritzand Elisabeth Lichtenberger, eds.

Regional Input-Output Analysis. Geoffrey J. D. Hewings.

Spatial Transportation Modeling. Christian Werner.

The Atlas of Georgia. Thomas W. Hodlerand Howard A. Schretter, eds.

Latin America. 5th ed. Preston E. Jamesand C.W. Minkel.

Applied Remote Sensing. C.P. Lo.

Localities, Class, and Gender. The Lancaster Regionalism Group.

Urban Social Movements: The City after Castells. Stuart Lowe.

Politics and Method. Doreen Masseyand Richard Meegan, eds.

Land Use. A. S. Mather.

The Kingdom of Coal. Donald L. Millerand Richard E. Sharpless.

The Presidio and Militia on the Northern Frontier of New Spain, A Documentary History, Vol. 1: 1570–1700. Thomas H. Naylorand Charles W. Polzer, S.J., comps. andeds.

Nuclear Power: Siting and Safety. Stan Openshaw.

The Central African Republic: The Continent's Hidden Heart. Thomas O'Toole.

Environmental and Dynamic Geomorphology. Márton Pécsi, ed.

Remote Sensing Principles and Interpretation. Floyd F. Sabins, Jr.

Acid Rain and Friendly Neighbors: The Policy Dispute between Canada and the United States. Jurgen Schmandtand Hilliard Roderick, eds.

Earth's Changing Surface: An Introduction to Geomorphology. M.J. Selby.

International Migration: The Female Experience. Rita J. Simonand Caroline B. Brettell, eds.

On Geography and Its History. D.R. Stoddart.

Transportation Networks: A Quantitative Approach. D. Teodorovic.

Processes in Physical Geography. R.D. Thompson, A.M. Mannion, C.W. Mitchell, M. Parry, J.R.G. Townshend.

Imaging Radar for Resources Surveys. J.W. Trevett.

Dominance and Affection: The Making of Pets. Yi-Fu Tuan.

Capturing the Horizon. The Historical Geography of Transportation since the Transportation Revolution of the Sixteenth Century. James E. Vance, Jr.

Nations at Risk: The Impact of the Computer Revolution. Edward Yourdon.     

Class A predictions of a NATM tunnel in stiff clay

The paper demonstrates the application of a hypoplastic model in class A predictions of a NATM tunnel in an urban environment. The tunnel, excavated in a stiff clay, is 14 m wide with 6 m to 21 m of overburden thickness. The constitutive model was calibrated using laboratory data (oedometric and triaxial tests) and the parameters were optimised using monitoring data from an exploratory drift. Based on the optimised data set, the future tunnel was simulated. After the tunnel excavation, it could be concluded that the model predicted correctly surface settlements, surface horizontal displacements, and the distribution of vertical displacements with depth. It overpredicted horizontal displacements in the vicinity of the tunnel.     

The in(a/tan/β) index: How to calculate it and how to use it within the topmodel framework

Topographic indices may be used to attempt to approximate the likely distribution of variable source areas within a catchment. One such index has been applied widely using the distribution function catchment model, TOPMODEL, of Beven and Kirkby (1979). Validation of the spatial predictions of TOPMODEL may be affected by the algorithm used to calculate the model's topographic index. A number of digital terrain analysis (DTA) methods are therefore described for use in calculating the TOPMODEL topographic index, In(a/tanβ) (a = upslope contributing area per unit contour; tanβ = local slope angle). The spatial pattern and statistical distribution of the index is shown to be substantially different for different calculation procedures and differing pixel resolutions. It is shown that an interaction between hillslope contributing area accumulation and the analytical definition of the channel network has a major influence on calculated In(a/tanβ) index patterns. A number of DTA tests were performed to explore this interaction. The tests suggested that an ‘optimum’ channel initiation threshold (CIT) may be identified for positioning river headwaters in a raster digital terrain model (DTM). This threshold was found to be dependent on DTM grid resolution. Grid resolution is also suggested to have implications for the validation of spatial model predictions, implying that ‘optimum’ TOPMODEL parameter sets may be unique to the grid scale used in their derivation. Combining existing DTA procedures with an identified CIT, a procedure is described to vary the directional diffusion of contributing area accumulation with distance from the channel network.     

Case studies of ERS-1 altimeter data applicating in China Sea

1 IwrRODUcrIONAn initial field of wave height in a computing domain is needed fOr integration ofnumerical wave model. Because real time. observation ocean data are scarce, now most ofinitial fields of ocean wave is produced by either reckoning wind fields or preceding 24hour prediction results. It is possible to form an initiaI field of ocean wave along with the..increasing satellite data, ship report and buoy data. Some of research works have beendone abroad (Janssen et a1, l989; LionelI…     

A computational study of the ozone dimer

The dimer of ozone is treatedab initio by the second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation approach with the 6-31G* and 6-1+G* basis sets (with an evaluation of the basis set superposition error and the fourth-order corrections). It is found that the minimum-energy structure exhibitsC _s symmetry (with some patterns resembling the structure of the water dimer). The calculated dimerization energy varies between –13 and –1 kJ/mol. Monomer-dimer shifts in the vibrational frequencies are rather small (about 10 cm^–1 or less) while the inter-molecular frequencies vary between 30 and 120 cm^–1. The ozone dimer could influence some spectral observations under atmospheric conditions.Part III In the series Computational Studies of Atmospheric Chemistry Species; for Part II, see Slaninaet al., 1992.On a leave of absence from the Czechoslovak Academy of Sciences, Prague.     

Estimation of ship motions using closed-form expressions

A semi-analytical approach is used to derive frequency response functions for the wave-induced motions for monohull ships. The results are given as closed-form expressions and the required input information for the procedure is restricted to the main dimensions: length, breadth, draught, block coefficient and water plane area together with speed and heading. The formulas make it simple to obtain quick estimates of the wave-induced motions and accelerations in the conceptual design phase and to perform a sensitivity study of the variation with main dimensions and operational profile.