基于GIS的“三图–双预测法”的应用

针对铁法集团大强煤矿1号煤可能存在的顶板涌(突)水危害问题,运用基于地理信息系统(GIS)的层次分析法(AHP)型“三图–双预测法”,通过对含水层厚度、岩心采取率、单位涌水量、渗透系数、断层等5个主控因素的综合分析,在建立煤层顶板充水含水层富水性分区图的同时,对开采煤层的顶板安全性进行评价及分区。在以上研究的基础上运用GIS多源地学信息复合叠加原理,提出了1号煤顶板涌(突)水条件综合分区的划分方案。根据综合分区结果,运用Visual Modflow软件对即将开采的2-202工作面和三采区进行了涌水量预测。     

基于高效统计模型预测9月北极航道沿线海冰范围

The rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness not only has a linkage with extreme weather in the midlatitudes but also brings more opportunities for Arctic shipping routes and polar resource exploration, both of which motivate us to further understand causes of sea-ice variations and to obtain more accurate estimates of seaice cover in the future. Here, a novel data-driven method, the causal effect networks algorithm, is applied to identify the direct precursors of September sea-ice extent covering the Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route at different lead times so that statistical models can be constructed for sea-ice prediction. The whole study area was also divided into two parts: the northern region covered by multiyear ice and the southern region covered by seasonal ice. The forecast models of September sea-ice extent in the whole study area(TSIE) and southern region(SSIE) at lead times of 1–4 months can explain over 65% and 79% of the variances, respectively,but the forecast skill of sea-ice extent in the northern region(NSIE) is limited at a lead time of 1 month. At lead times of 1–4 months, local sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness have a larger influence on September TSIE and SSIE than other teleconnection factors. When the lead time is more than 4 months, the surface meridional wind anomaly from northern Europe in the preceding autumn or early winter is dominant for September TSIE variations but is comparable to thermodynamic factors for NSIE and SSIE. We suggest that this study provides a complementary approach for predicting regional sea ice and is helpful in evaluating and improving climate models.     

邢台煤矿下组煤开采水文地质条件评价及突水危险性预测

为安全开采下组煤,详细分析了矿区奥灰水文地质条件,以研究煤层底板突水因素、突不机理为切入点,利用地理信息系统技术,对下组煤开采之前奥灰突水的危险性进行了预测,即可分为３个区（安全区、可能突水区、突水区）,同时提出下组煤先期开采的范围为－２１０ｍ水平以上范围。     

新集矿区松散层工程地质特征及地面沉降预测

为了有效地防治新集矿区地面沉降,研究了该区第四系松散层的工程地质特征与地面沉降的关系:松散层的大部分力学参数在地表以下30m内变化不大,埋深大于30m后变化明显;粘性土的压缩性明显大于砂性土;粘土中伊利石含量高,排水条件好,压缩性好。将松散层划分为3个主要压缩层;建立了地面沉降计算模型,预测区内地面沉降为0.2832~0.8293m。      

Droplet breakup in subsea oil releases – Part 2: Predictions of droplet size distributions with and without injection of chemical dispersants

A new method for prediction of droplet size distributions from subsea oil and gas releases is presented in this paper. The method is based on experimental data obtained from oil droplet breakup experiments conducted in a new test facility at SINTEF. The facility is described in a companion paper, while this paper deals with the theoretical basis for the model and the empirical correlations used to derive the model parameters from the available data from the test facility. A major issue dealt with in this paper is the basis for extrapolation of the data to full scale (blowout) conditions. Possible contribution from factors such as buoyancy flux and gas void fraction are discussed and evaluated based on results from the DeepSpill field experiment.     

A Hybrid Dynamical-Statistical Approach for Predicting Winter Precipitation over Eastern China

Correlation analysis revealed that winter precipitation in six regions of eastern China is closely related not only to preceding climate signals but also to synchronous atmospheric general circulation fields.It is therefore necessary to use a method that combines both dynamical and statistical predictions of winter precipitation over eastern China(herein after called the hybrid approach).In this connection,seasonal real-time prediction models for winter precipitation were established for the six regions.The models use both the preceding observations and synchronous numerical predictions through a multivariate linear regression analysis.To improve the prediction accuracy,the systematic error between the original regression model result and the corresponding observation was corrected.Cross-validation analysis and real-time prediction experiments indicate that the prediction models using the hybrid approach can reliably predict the trend,sign,and interannual variation of regionally averaged winter precipitation in the six regions of concern.Averaged over the six target regions,the anomaly correlation coefficient and the rate with the same sign of anomaly between the cross-validation analysis and observation during 1982-2008 are 0.69 and 78%,respectively.This indicates that the hybrid prediction approach adopted in this study is applicable in operational practice.     

Radiants of the Leonids 1999 and 2001 Obtained by Lltv Systems Using Automatic Software Tools

Both amateur and professional meteor groups are more frequently using Low-Light level TV (LLTV) systems to record meteors. Double-station observations can yield orbit data. However, data analysis normally is still done by hand and thus time consuming. This paper addresses the question of whether available automated tools can be used to determine reasonably accurate orbits with minimum human intervention. The European Space Agency performed several observing campaigns to observe the Leonid meteor stream. In November 1999, the ESA meteor group was stationed at two locations in Southern Spain, in November 2001 at two stations close to Broome in North-Western Australia. Double-station observations with LLTV systems were conducted. The data was recorded on S-VHS video tapes. The tapes were processed using automatic detection software from which meteor heights, velocities and radiants were computed. This paper shows the results for the two maximum nights. The radiants determined in 1999 show a very large scatter due to unfortunate observing geometry and inaccurate position determination since one of the cameras was moving because of the wind. The 2001 data is excellent and the radiant was determined to be at RA = 153.96°±0.3° and Dec = 21.09°±0.2°. The error bars for individual meteor radiants are about 0.2° to 0.4°. This demonstrates that is indeed possible to determine good radiant positions using totally automated tools. Orbits, on the other hand, are not well defined due to the fact that the velocity of individual meteors shows large errors. Reasons for this are described.     

The Earth's Climate in the Next Hundred Thousand years (100 kyr)

One of the most striking features of the Quaternary paleoclimate records remains the so-called 100-kyr cycle which is undoubtedly linked to the future of our climate. Such a 100-kyr cycle is indeed characterised by long glacial periods followed by a short-interglacial (10–15 kyr long). As we are now in an interglacial, the Holocene, the previous one (the Eemian, which corresponds quite well to Marine Isotope Stage 5e, peaking at 125 kyr before present, BP) was assumed to be a good analogue for our present-day climate. In addition, as the Holocene is 10 kyr long, paleoclimatologists were naturally inclined to predict that we are quite close to the next ice age. Simulations using the 2-D climate model of Louvain-la-Neuve show, however, that the current interglacial will most probably last much longer than any previous ones. It is suggested here that this is related to the shape of the Earth's orbit around the Sun, which will be almost circular over the next tens of thousands of years. As this is primarily related to the 400-kyr cycle of eccentricity, the best and closest analogue for such a forcing is definitely Marine Isotopic Stage 11 (MIS-11), some 400 kyr ago, not MIS-5e. Because the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere also plays an important role in shaping long-term climatic variations – especially its phase with respect to insolation – a detailed reconstruction of this previous interglacial from deep sea and ice records is urgently needed. Such a study is particularly important in the context of the already exceptional present-day CO₂ concentrations (unprecedented over the past million years) and, even more so, because of even larger values predicted to occur during the 21st century due to human activities.     

Capturing the essential spatial variability in distributed hydrological modelling: Hydraulic roughness

The spatial variability of each parameter affecting storm runoff must be accounted for in distributed modelling. The objective of the work reported here is to assess the effects of using distributed versus lumped hydraulic roughness coefficients in the modelling of direct surface runoff. A spatially variable data set composed of Manning roughness coefficients is used to model direct surface runoff. To assess the information content (as measured by entropy) of spatially variable data and its significance in distributed modelling, various degrees of smoothing are applied. The error resulting from smoothing the hydraulic roughness coefficients is determined by modelling overland flow using a finite element solution. The Manning roughness coefficients were taken from field measurements of the Manning roughness coefficient at 0.6 m on a 14 m hillslope. These values were then used in a numerical simulation of outflow hydrographs to investigate the dependence of error on spatial variability. Our study focuses on the characteristics of spatial data used in distributed hydrological modelling. The field sites have fractal dimensions of ≈? 1.4, which is close to a Brownian variation. The sampling interval that captures the essential spatial variability of the Manning roughness coefficient does not seem to matter due to its Brownian variation in the field sites. Hence due to the nearly uniform random distribution, measurements at 0.6 m intervals are not necessary and larger intervals would yield results that are just as acceptable provided the mean value together with a uniformly random distribution is maintained for any size of finite element or sampling resolution. Because detailed measurements of hydraulic roughness are not practically available for deterministic catchment modelling, it is important to know that larger sampling resolutions may be used than 0.6 m.