一种短期气候预测集成技术的应用研究

以递归正权综合决策方案为基础，结合实际情况，首先对多种预报方法进行筛选，选取预报效果较好并且较为稳定的几种方法参与集成，并将集成结果写成Micaps数据格式，最终以图形方式显示出来。评分结果表明：该集成方法对温度预报和灾害指数预报较权重平均集成法效果好；而对月雨量预报和季度雨量、温度预报则与权重平均方法相当；但是对季度雨量、温度预报来说，集成后预测精度有明显提高。同时，将集成结果通过Micaps工作平台以图形方式显示，不仅客观、定量，而且更一目了然．     

NWP在颠簸预报中的应用

颠簸是航空气上重要预告内容之一，历史上由于颠簸引起的飞行事故及征候占有一定的比例，颠簸预报也是气象预报的难点，颠簸对飞行的影响至关重要，轻则引起航行中的飞机摆动偏航，重则造成飞机解体，近年来随着太原机场卫星广播传真数值预报产品的使用，我们也在逐步尝试使用数值产品分析颠簸，使颠簸的预报有了明显提高。     

Damaging properties of ground motions and prediction of maximum response of structures based on momentary energy response

Dynamic damaging potential of ground motions must be evaluated by the response behaviour of structures, and it is necessary to indicate what properties of ground motions are most appropriate for evaluation. For that purpose, the behaviour of energy input process and hysteretic energy dissipation are investigated in this study. It is found that the momentary input energy that is an index for the intensity of input energy is related to the characteristics of earthquakes such as cyclic or impulsive, and to the response displacement of structures immediately. On the basis of these results, a procedure is proposed to predict inelastic response displacement of structures by corresponding earthquake input energy to structural dissipated damping and hysteretic energy. In this procedure the earthquake response of structures is recognized as an input and dissipation process of energy, and therefore structural properties and damaging properties of ground motions can be taken into account more generally. Lastly, the studies of the pseudodynamic loading test of reinforced concrete structure specimens subjected to ground motions with different time duration are shown. The purpose of this test is to estimate the damaging properties of ground motions and the accuracy of the proposed prediction procedure. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

公路边坡工程监测技术评价与分析

结合公路工程、建筑工程等土木工程建设中经常涉及到的边坡工程,评价与分析边坡工程监测的作用、内容和方法,提出了边坡工程应该在工程项目开展的开始阶段就应进行和边坡工程监测的项目,选择原则,测点布置原则、监测周期等,对边坡工程建设具有重要的意义.     

神头泉流量变化规律研究--灰色系统理论的具体应用

在分析神头泉流量衰减特征的前提下，利用灰色系统理论建立了描述神头泉流量变化规律的数学模型。以1985年为界，神头泉的流量变化过程可分为两个阶段，GM（1，1）模型与灰色预测校正模型则分别用于对这两个阶段的流量变化特征进行刻画。神头泉2000－2004年的流量预测值表明，在神头泉域保证90年代中期的高降水量和朔州市各地下水用户对泉域内的地下水不进行超采的基础上，神头泉的流量在未来的一段时间内会维持1993年以来的增长趋势。     

非常规综合物化探油气预测研究

非常规综合物化探方法油气预测研究中存在的主要问题为：缺乏系统与综合的基础性理论研究，异常形成的机理还不十分清楚，在参数的优化组合及异常的求取上尚有诸多不足。针对后一种情况，选择松辽盆地东岭构造作为实验区进行了有益的探索。选取低能吸附烃、放射性测氡及土壤热释光三类参数进行了优化组合，分别计算了综合指标MAE与MAC及组合熵，然后对各值采用泛克里格法求取异常，取得了良好的效果。下一步研究应从异常形成的机理入手，建立三维非常规综合物化探油气预测模式，以提高油气预测成功率。     

Analyzing CO2 emissions mitigation by technology improvement in Central and Eastern Europe

As a legacy of the centrally planned economy, the economies in transition of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have a unique potential to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through the improvement in their high energy intensities. Since much of this `low-hanging fruit' in energy-efficiency improvements can be highly cost-effective, many developed countries facing difficulties in meeting their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets domestically are eager to find such opportunities in the CEE region. Therefore, studies analysing the potentials and costs of carbon dioxide reduction through technology improvement in the region have come into the limelight. While there are a few excellent studies in the region aimed at analysing climate change abatement potentials, they all embark on different assumptions, methodologies and boundary conditions. It is hence difficult, if not impossible, to compare and analyse the results of these studies across different authors, countries or time horizons. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to place four leading studies on GHG mitigation through technology improvement from the CEE region into an internationally comparable framework. Four studies were selected from three countries, Poland, Hungary and Estonia, which are all the results of major national and international efforts to assess costs and potentials of GHG reduction. The paper places their assumptions, methods and final results into a framework which enables policy-makers and project designers to compare these across geographical and technological boundaries. Since other studies from around the globe have been analysed in this framework in the literature, this paper provides a vehicle for the findings of these four studies to be compared to others worldwide. In addition, the paper highlights a few areas where similar studies to be completed in the future in the region may be enhanced by incorporating features used in GHG mitigation research in other parts of the world. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

深井水氡主要干扰因素及映震效能分析

对甘肃省玉门青6井和平凉泾川泾3井两口深水井的水氡及辅助项目观测资料采用多元逐步回归、相关距平、一阶差分等方法进行处理，分析并排除了主要干扰因素，显示出两井在肃南5.4级、托莱6.0级和礼县5.1级地震前有明显异常，对两井的映震效能和地震预报前景进行了评价。     

历史地震资料与地震的中长期预测

故障诊断模型的基本内容是根据动态系统的外部特征来判断系统内部是否发生故障及确定故障发生的部位、时间和大小。由于故障诊断技术在监测及诊断故障的思路上和地震预报有很多相似之处，因此，把故障诊断技术应用于地震预报是可行的。由于该模型与其他数学模型一样，需要有较多的学习过程，所以历史地震资料在该模型中有重要作用。而其中的鲁棒性故障诊断模型在抑制各子模型的个性，凸现其共性方面有其特有的性质，所以把它作为一种综合模型，能抑制各子模型的个性，突出在地震预测方面的共性，从而提高预测的精确性。本文根据一个实例，说明了这种综合性模型的可行性。在文章的最后，由信息量的分析，说明了模型的鲁棒性特征。     

对“十五”期间防震减灾社会需求的分析

分析了“十五”期间社会，政府对防震减灾工作的需求，联系工作实际进行了全面论述和分析，并对推进防震减灾提出了一些有益的政策建议。