A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

泥晶灰岩地层孔壁坍塌掉块现象及处理

在灰岩地区钻探施工过程中，常见孔壁坍塌、掉块现象，尤其在含泥晶灰岩地层分布区钻进过程中，这种现象尤为突出，轻则影响钻探施工效率，重则造成钻探孔内事故。针对孔内坍塌、掉块现象的征兆及特点，提出了相对应的处理办法。     

Rock fracturing by explosive energy: review of state-of-the-art

A study of the dynamic rock fracture initiation and propagation due to explosive energy is presented through a detailed state-of-the-art review. Explosive energy dissipation in crushing and fracturing is examined and the various means to enhance the explosive energy utilization for dynamic rock fracturing are reviewed. The study highlights the need for a better understanding of the dynamic fracturing process particularly in the presence of in situ stresses in the rock mass.     

Deformation-induced garnet zoning

Compositional zoning patterns in garnet porphyroblasts from kyanite-bearing samples of the Devonian Littleton Formation, north-central Massachusetts, reveal complex patterns of growth that are related to multiple deformation and metamorphic events. Garnet porphyroblasts exhibit asymmetrical and irregular zoning patterns in X_Mn, X_Ca and Fe/(Fe + Mg). Zoning reversals in Mn and Fe/(Fe + Mg) and patch distribution in Ca appear to occur around the boundaries of the textural zones. Also, the compositions of the garnet at the textural boundaries are variable for all traverses. These observations suggest that the garnet zoning was not only modified from diffusion processes, but was also influenced by pre-existing microfabrics through the effects of preferential dissolution and resorption in partial disequilibrium. Relationships between chemical and textural truncations indicate that the zoning patterns of garnet were strongly modified from preferential dissolution and precipitation during the development of successive foliations that occurred in zones of high strain/stress (cleavage seams) and zones of low strain/stress, respectively.     

The geography of suicide terrorism in Israel

Palestinian suicide terrorism has been a key feature in the latest phase of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. During the past decade, and particularly since September 2000, there has been a substantial increase in the use of this type of warfare. Recent studies suggest that, contrary to common belief, suicide terrorism is highly rational and driven by strategic considerations. This article explores the rationality of Palestinian suicide terrorism from a geographical perspective. It is argued that suicide terrorism works along two parallel paths: rationality and randomness. It complies with geographical fundamentals, and target selection is highly rational, subject to spatial considerations such as distance, agglomeration, and accessibility. As the permeability to Israel became more difficult, suicide bombers and their organizers had to adopt more flexible practices which emphasized other spatial considerations. Timing is of importance both for strategic and tactical reasoning. Obstructing negotiations and peace talks has been a salient objective, but the exact timing of suicide bombings has been influenced by tactical considerations, which aim at maximizing casualties.     

Deterioration of the volcanic kerb and pavement stones in a humid environment in the city centre of Izmir, Turkey

?zmir is the third largest city in Turkey and has being the centre of art, culture, tourism and trade activities throughout the 5,000 years of its history. Natural stones brought from different parts of the world have been widely used for construction of the prestigious buildings, monuments and roads etc., in the past in the city. Renovation of the street pavements and public gathering areas in the city centre has been undertaken by the Metropolitan Municipality in 2000 and continued through the year of 2001. These renovation activities have mainly been carried out in the streets running parallel to the sea shore. Volcanic rocks brought from the Central Anatolia Ankara-Gölba?? (andesites) and Kayseri-?ncesu (tuffs) have been used in the renovation works. These rocks have shown extensive deteriorations within 4 years of their usage between 2001 and 2005 under the influence of different environmental factors. In this study, the deteriorations developed in the recently placed volcanic rocks used as kerb and pavement stones in the city centre of ?zmir in the light of their mineralogical, chemical, physical and mechanical properties, used locations and the environmental factors are presented.     

Centrifuge modelling-based verification of response spectra design methods for some vulnerable structures

Residential RC framed structures suffered heavily during the 2001 Bhuj earthquake in Gujarat, India. These types of structures also saw severe damage in other earthquakes such as the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey and 921 Ji-Ji earthquake in Taiwan. In this paper the seismic response of residential structures was investigated using physical modelling. Idealised soft storey and top heavy, two degrees of freedom (2DOF) portal frame structures were developed and tested on saturated and dry sand models at 25 g using the Schofield Centre 10-m Beam Centrifuge. It was possible to recreate observed field behaviour using these models. As observed in many of the recent earthquakes, soft storey structures were found to be particularly vulnerable to seismic loads. Elastic response spectra methods are often used in the design of simple portal frame structures. The seismic risk of these structures can be significantly increased due to modifications such as removal of a column or addition of heavy water tanks on the roof. The experimental data from the dynamic centrifuge tests on such soft storey or top-heavy models was used to evaluate the predictions obtained from the response spectra. Response spectra were able to predict seismic response during small to moderate intensity earthquakes, but became inaccurate during strong earthquakes and when soil structure interaction effects became important. Re-evaluation of seismic risk of such modified structures is required and time domain analyses suggested by building codes such as IBC, UBC or NEHRP may be more appropriate.     

浅谈省级地震系统如何做到开发富局

作为公益性财政拨款事业单位,省级地震系统实现开发富局,应该要从稳定项目收入,拓展自营收入,培育和发展生产点,推进制度创新着手。本文试图从预算和管理的角度对其作一点简单分析。     

Evolution from Oceanic Subduction to Continental Collision: a Case Study from the Northern Tibetan Plateau Based on Geochemical and Geochronological Data

Two apparently distinct, sub-parallel, paleo-subduction zonescan be recognized along the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau:the North Qilian Suture Zone (oceanic-type) with ophioliticmélanges and high-pressure eclogites and blueschistsin the north, and the North Qaidam Belt (continental-type) inthe south, an ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphic terrane comprisingpelitic and granitic gneisses, eclogites and garnet peridotites.Eclogites from both belts have protoliths broadly similar tomid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB) or oceanic island basalts (OIB)in composition with overlapping metamorphic ages (480–440Ma, with weighted mean ages of 464 ± 6 Ma for North Qilianand 457 ± 7 Ma for North Qaidam), determined by zirconU–Pb sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe dating.Coesite-bearing zircon grains in pelitic gneisses from the NorthQaidam UHP Belt yield a peak metamorphic age of 423 ±6 Ma, 40 Myr younger than the age of eclogite formation, anda retrograde age of 403 ± 9 Ma. These data, combinedwith regional relationships, allow us to infer that these twoparallel belts may represent an evolutionary sequence from oceanicsubduction to continental collision, and continental underthrusting,to final exhumation. The Qilian–Qaidam Craton was probablya fragment of the Rodinia supercontinent with a passive marginand extended oceanic lithosphere in the north, which was subductedbeneath the North China Craton to depths >100 km at c. 423Ma and exhumed at c. 403 Ma (zircon rim ages in pelitic gneiss). KEY WORDS: HP and UHP rocks; subduction belts; zircon SHRIMP ages; Northern Tibetan Plateau     

图像数据挖掘软件原型系统的设计与开发

提出了图像数据挖掘软件原型系统的设计与开发的试验框架,阐述了其设计与开发方法,介绍了各个模块的功能、设计与开发情况。