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91.
Earthquake magnitude prediction is of vital importance for human safety. The earthquake is a very complicated and non-linear dynamic process. It cannot be described adequately by any deterministic models. In this paper a neural dynamic modelling for earthquake magnitude prediction is reported. Historical records of earthquake magnitude series are used to construct the optimal non-linear dynamic model, and the consequent outcome of the earthquake behaviour is then predicted by this model. In turn, the latest recorded data set can be fed back to improve the accuracy of the neural dynamic model. The modelling of experiments of three earthquake magnitude series in China and Japan and their extrapolated predictions are included in this paper. The values predicted by extrapolation are in good agreement with the historical data. 相似文献
92.
以天山北坡头屯河流域为例,在对山区不同海拔的降水特征、侵蚀产沙情势以及河流水沙运移特点分析的基础上,详尽就山区降水对河流水沙情势的年际变化、年内变化以及月变化的影响进行了分析研究,并就降水对不同海拔的河流水沙情势的影响强度及相互关系作了探讨. 相似文献
93.
区域经济联系定量分析初探:以上海与苏锡常地区经济联系为例 总被引:49,自引:2,他引:49
针对目前区域联合日益广泛和经济联系量化研究不足的现状,在联系强度等方面提出一些新概念;阐述了经济联系量化指标的选取,建立了经济联系定量分析模型。 相似文献
94.
95.
浅层地下水氟的溶解/沉淀作用的定量研究 总被引:12,自引:0,他引:12
以河北邢台山前平原浅层高氟地下水为例,根据氟的化学热力学分析,确定了控制浅层地下水中氟迁移和富集的固相沉淀物,以及不同化学类型的浅层地下水中含氟固相沉淀物的溶解/沉淀条件;利用浅层地下水化学平衡反应模型和PHREEQE软件,确定了氟化的稳定区域,计算了氟化钙的饱和指数.研究结果表明,在浅层高氟地下水的整个形成过程中,都表现为氟由固相转入水相的趋势,有利于氟的迁移和富集 相似文献
96.
97.
Catalogues of actual observed intensities are constructed for three towns in the Ionian Islands. They are used for seismic hazard assessment and the results are compared with those obtained by standard approaches; that is, by statistics applied to the data computed from epicentral parameters. The results show that seismic hazard is better assessed using observed rather than computed data, but preparation of the local catalogue presents non-trivial difficulties. 相似文献
98.
B. Rajagopalan U. Lall D. G. Tarboton D. S. Bowles 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(1):65-93
A nonparametric resampling technique for generating daily weather variables at a site is presented. The method samples the
original data with replacement while smoothing the empirical conditional distribution function. The technique can be thought
of as a smoothed conditional Bootstrap and is equivalent to simulation from a kernel density estimate of the multivariate
conditional probability density function. This improves on the classical Bootstrap technique by generating values that have
not occurred exactly in the original sample and by alleviating the reproduction of fine spurious details in the data. Precipitation
is generated from the nonparametric wet/dry spell model as described in Lall et al. [1995]. A vector of other variables (solar
radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average dew point temperature, and average wind speed) is then simulated
by conditioning on the vector of these variables on the preceding day and the precipitation amount on the day of interest.
An application of the resampling scheme with 30 years of daily weather data at Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, is provided. 相似文献
99.
100.
Zhang Sheng Li Tongjin Wang LiankuiGuangzhou Institute of Geochemistry Chinese Academy of SciencesWushan Guangzhou 《《地质学报》英文版》1997,71(4):433-445
The Changkeng gold-silver deposits consist of a sediment-hosted, disseminated gold deposit and a replacement-type silver deposit. The mineralizations of gold and silver are zoned and closely related to the silicification of carbonate and clastic rocks, so that siliceous ores dominate in the deposit. The mineralizing temperature ranges mainly from 300 to 170℃, and K+, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, and Cl- are the major ions in the ore-forming fluid. Calculations of distribution of metal complexes show that gold is mainly transported by hydrosulphide complexes, but chloride complexes of silver, iron, lead, and zinc, which are transformed into hydroxyl and hydrosulphide complexes under neutral to weak-alkaline circumstances in the late stage, predominate in the ore-forming solutions. Water-rock interaction is confirmed to be the effective mechanism for the formation of silver ores by computer modelling of reaction of hydrothermal solution with carbonate rocks. The solubility analyses demonstrate that the precipitation 相似文献