A multidirectional conditional spectrum

This paper presents a procedure to generate multidirectional conditional spectra (MDCS) that allow for the characterisation of seismic demands at different angles of incidence. Being conditional on a particular period and its direction of maximum response, it is considered to be a natural evolution of the conditional spectrum to account for the effects of directionality, that is, the variation of seismic demands as a function of the angle of incidence of ground motions, which can have a significant effect on the performance of different kinds of structures. The three main components needed for the generation of MDCS are explained in detail. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted using different sampling methods to assess the effects of incorporating the correlation between demands at different orientations for the same oscillator period, and a novel correlation model is proposed for this purpose. The statistical characteristics of MDCS, their relation with the conditional spectrum, the advantages of the MDCS over previous definitions of orientation‐specific spectra, and prospective future developments are discussed.     

集合预报开创了业务数值天气预报的新纪元

近年来世界上随着几个气象中心的集合预报投入业务,标志着业务数值天气预报进行了一个新的纪元,在任何进修大气的起初状态是不知道的,只有近似地描述大气,所以确切地说,天气预报问题应该提为大气的相空间中合适的概率密度函数随时间的演变。在误差的增长超出线性动力学范畴之外,集合预报是预报大气概率密度函数演变唯一可行的方法。可用扰动的产生是集合预报的主要问题之一。沿着预报系统的相空间中最不稳定的方向来扰动初始条     

正压模式中慢波的离散谱及其特征函数

本文对正压模式中慢波的离散谱及其特征函数作了数值计算。结果发现，在低速线性缓变切变基流的情形下，正压原始方程中慢波可有离散谱存在。本文还给出了在该基流下算得的谱点和特征函数，并与准地转模式的计算结果进行了比较。     

青藏高原地表位涡密度强迫对2008年1月中国南方降水过程的影响Ⅰ:资料分析

位涡外部源汇是驱动大气环流的原动力。文中详细介绍了地表位涡制造和位涡密度强迫的联系,讨论了不同坐标系中位涡密度方程的特点及其在应用中应当注意的问题。还以2008年初南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害为例,探讨了青藏高原地表位涡密度强迫及东传对下游地区对流性天气发生的影响,拟由此揭示青藏高原位涡密度强迫激发中国东部激烈天气发生的一种新机制。伴随着青藏高原地表正位涡密度的东传,下游地区对流层中高层出现纬向正绝对涡度平流,气旋性环流增强,从而促使低空南风发展,为南方地区提供充沛的水汽条件。另外,南风的增强有利于低空经向负绝对涡度平流的加强,从而使南方地区高、低空形成绝对涡度平流随高度增大的大尺度环流背景,有利于上升运动的发展。上升运动的加强又促进低空南风气流的增强,使高、低空绝对涡度平流随高度增大的环流背景进一步增强,最终导致降水的产生。      

微电网逆变器的自适应滑模控制策略研究

恒功率负载的输入阻抗具有负增量阻抗特性,其与前级电源的相互作用将对微电网系统的稳定运行产生重大影响.因此,研究带有恒功率负载的微电网稳定性具有实际意义.本文提出了一种改进的滑模控制方法,将其用于改善微电网系统的大信号稳定.首先在系统建模中考虑了系统的参数不确定性及外部干扰,使控制具有较好的鲁棒性;其次在滑模控制中引入自适应算法,对总扰动上界进行了估计,提高了控制的准确性;最后通过Matlab／Simulink建立了微电网模型,通过仿真验证了所提出策略的有效性.     

高空站后备电源维护方法

对目前高空站所使用的后备电源的维护方面,参考有关资料,结合台站的工作经验,总结出备份电源的维护与保障方法,为各台站在日常使用备份电源时提供一定参考。     

华北地区水位下降是否会减缓气温上升——浅部地温影响的数值模拟分析

华北地区由于长期持续的地下水过量开采,导致了大面积地下水位大幅下降,引发地面塌陷、地下水质污染等一系列地质环境问题,这些现象早已为人们所熟知和关注.然而地下水位下降还会造成百米量级浅部地温及其梯度的变化,因此即使来自地球深部的大地热流密度没有变化,年度平均的从表浅部位通过地表实际传导进入大气的热流密度会减小,这是中外文献中尚未见讨论过的问题.我们通过数值模拟发现假定大地热流密度不变的条件下,华北数万平方公里地下水位下降会造成百米尺度内的地温降低,从而传入大气的热流密度降低40%以上,且会持续数百年以上的时间.这种长时间大范围的传导入大气的热流密度变化对环境会造成什么影响是一个十分值得关注的问题.这一预测在一定程度上得到了气象站地温观测数据的支持,但由于目前气象观测站只有3.2 m深度范围内的地温资料,累计不超过5、60年,中间还有10余年的间断,而且表浅深度地温受地表多种因素的影响也较大,这些资料难以对我们关心的地下水位下降引起流入大气的热流密度变化这一问题提供直接确凿的数据来进行分析,因此今后有必要开展对地下数十乃至数百米地温进行持续精确的监测工作.     

The thermospheric semiannual density response to solar EUV heating

The goal of this study was to characterize the thermospheric semiannual density response to solar heating during the last 35 years. Historical radar observational data have been processed with special orbit perturbations on 28 satellites with perigee heights ranging from 200 to 1100 km. Approximately 225,000 very accurate average daily density values at perigee have been obtained for all satellites using orbit energy dissipation rates. The semiannual variation has been found to be extremely variable from year to year. The magnitude of the maximum yearly difference, from the July minimum to the October maximum, is used to characterize the yearly semiannual variability. It has been found that this maximum difference can vary by as much as 100% from one year to the next. A high correlation has been found between this maximum difference and solar EUV data. The semiannual variation for each year has been characterized based on analyses of annual and semiannual cycles, using Fourier analysis, and equations have been developed to characterize this yearly variability. The use of new solar indices in the EUV and FUV wavelengths is shown to very accurately describe the semiannual July minimum phase shifting and the variations in the observed yearly semiannual amplitude.     

Modelling increased soil cohesion due to roots with EUROSEM

As organic root exudates cause soil particles to adhere firmly to root surfaces, roots significantly increase soil strength and therefore also increase the resistance of the topsoil to erosion by concentrated flow. This paper aims at contributing to a better prediction of the root effects on soil erosion rates in the EUROSEM model, as the input values accounting for roots, presented in the user manual, do not account for differences in root density or root architecture. Recent research indicates that small changes in root density or differences in root architecture considerably influence soil erosion rates during concentrated flow. The approach for incorporating the root effects into this model is based on a comparison of measured soil detachment rates for bare and for root‐permeated topsoil samples with predicted erosion rates under the same flow conditions using the erosion equation of EUROSEM. Through backwards calculation, transport capacity efficiencies and corresponding soil cohesion values can be assessed for bare and root‐permeated topsoils respectively. The results are promising and present soil cohesion values that are in accordance with reported values in the literature for the same soil type (silt loam). The results show that grass roots provide a larger increase in soil cohesion as compared with tap‐rooted species and that the increase in soil cohesion is not significantly different under wet and dry soil conditions, either for fibrous root systems or for tap root systems. Power and exponential relationships are established between measured root density values and the corresponding calculated soil cohesion values, reflecting the effects of roots on the resistance of the topsoil to concentrated flow incision. These relationships enable one to incorporate the root effect into the soil erosion model EUROSEM, through adapting the soil cohesion input value. A scenario analysis shows that the contribution of roots to soil cohesion is very important for preventing soil loss and reducing runoff volume. The increase in soil shear strength due to the binding effect of roots on soil particles is two orders of magnitude lower as compared with soil reinforcement achieved when roots mobilize their tensile strength during soil shearing and root breakage. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

天津电力人体舒适度预报模型

为做好天津电力气象服务工作,提供符合电力负荷预测需求的人体舒适度预报产品,本文根据国内外多种人体舒适度预报模型,利用2002—2005年夏季天津逐日电力负荷数据和气象数据,计算天津市逐日平均人体舒适度,详细分析各模型计算结果与平均气温和气象负荷的对应关系。结果发现,UTCI模型、吕伟林室外预报模型和李源模型计算的人体舒适度更符合天津市人体舒适度感觉,且与电力气象负荷的线性相关性较好。鉴于吕伟林模型在我国应用较广,本文采用最小二乘法对吕伟林室外预报模型进行拟合订正,建立出符合天津市电力气象服务需求的人体舒适度预报模型。